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Muhammad Pikar; M. Radityatama; Rian Fransisco; Agiel Pranata; Winstoon Yordan

Akuntansi Pajak dan Kebijakan Ekonomi Digital 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to examine the effect of working capital efficiency and leverage on profitability and its implications for firm value in manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2020–2025 period. The post-COVID-19 pandemic condition has increased operational risks for manufacturing companies due to fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, cash management, inventories, and receivables. Therefore, companies are required to implement more effective financial strategies to maintain competitiveness. Profitability is positioned as an intervening variable because previous studies showed inconsistent results regarding the relationship between working capital efficiency, leverage, profitability, and firm value. This research uses a quantitative approach with path analysis to examine direct and indirect relationships among variables. The population consists of all manufacturing companies listed on the IDX, while the sample includes 45 companies selected from 270 firms using purposive sampling based on specific criteria, such as consistent listing and financial performance. The results indicate that working capital efficiency has a significant positive effect on profitability, leverage has a significant negative effect on profitability, profitability significantly increases firm value, and profitability fully mediates the effect of working capital efficiency and leverage on firm value. These findings provide theoretical and practical implications for managers and investors in financial decision-making.

Maiz Wachid Anshorie; Anik Farida; Ela Nurlaela; Abdul Azis; Syaeful Bahri

Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Bisnis 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study examines the determinants of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) based on three main macroeconomic factors namely inflation, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the SBI interest rate (BI Rate) covering the period January 2020 to December 2025, in the context of post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery and global economic turmoil. A quantitative approach was employed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, with 72 monthly observations derived from secondary data sourced from official institutions including Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Classical assumption tests were applied comprising the Jarque-Bera normality test, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for multicollinearity, Breusch-Godfrey for autocorrelation, White Test for heteroscedasticity, and Ramsey RESET for model specification. Partially, inflation, exchange rate, and BI Rate each demonstrate a positive and significant effect on the JCI (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, all three variables exert a significant combined influence on the JCI, with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.4414, indicating that the model explains 44.14% of the variation in the JCI. The remaining 55.86% is attributed to other variables outside the model. Classical assumption test results reveal violations of normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity assumptions, although the model is free from multicollinearity. These findings confirm that Bank Indonesia's monetary policy has a significant and measurable impact on capital market performance. Further research is recommended using more advanced time series models such as GARCH or VECM to address violations of classical assumptions and improve estimation efficiency.

Sirilia Sesilma Jinate Ruben; Elisabeth Lauboling; Maria Yovita R. Pandin

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Ekonomi 2026 Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

This study evaluates how macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates affect the returns on corporate bonds issued by the banking sector in Indonesia. Corporate bonds are an attractive investment alternative, but their performance is highly influenced by fluctuations in national economic conditions. This study uses secondary data obtained from company financial reports, macroeconomic data, and bond market information over a certain period. Multiple linear regression analysis is applied to assess the extent to which each factor affects bond returns. The analysis results indicate that increases in interest rates and inflation tend to reduce bond returns, while the effect of exchange rates is inconsistent and depends on the economic stability at the time. These findings can serve as important considerations for investors, financial analysts, and policymakers in managing risks and opportunities in the Indonesia banking bondmarket.

Helnisa Helnisa; Agus Zahron Idris

Jurnal Mutiara Ilmu Akuntansi (JUMIA) 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

The study aims to analyze the influence of financial distress, leverage, and macroeconomic fundamentals on financial reporting fraud in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2020–2024 period. A quantitative approach coupled with multiple linear regression analysis was employed. A saturated sampling technique was used to select 23 companies with 115 observation units. The data used were secondary data from published financial reports on the IDX. The results indicate that financial distress and macroeconomic fundamentals have no effect on financial reporting fraud, while leverage has a positive effect on financial reporting fraud. The model in this study is able to explain 6.9% of the variation in financial reporting fraud, while the remaining amount is influenced by factors outside the model. These findings indicate that companies with high debt levels are more likely to commit financial reporting fraud, while companies with financial problems and high interest rates are less likely to commit financial reporting fraud.

Ayesa Venia; Melsya Noviriza Lutfia Asma; Syifa Az Zahra; M. Yusuf Bahtiar

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Exchange rates are a crucial indicator in an open economy, playing a significant role in influencing international trade, investment flows, and overall macroeconomic stability. This study aims to analyze the impact of rupiah exchange rate fluctuations on Indonesia’s economic growth during the period 2014–2023. The research employs a descriptive qualitative approach using secondary data obtained from official publications of Statistics Indonesia and Bank Indonesia. The main variables analyzed include the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar and Indonesia’s economic growth. The findings indicate that exchange rate movements are closely related to economic growth dynamics, particularly through international trade mechanisms, production costs, and the stability of the real sector. Depreciation of the exchange rate tends to enhance export competitiveness, but it may also trigger inflation due to rising import prices. Conversely, appreciation can help control inflation but may weaken export competitiveness. Therefore, maintaining exchange rate stability is essential to support sustainable economic growth and strengthen national economic resilience.

Wisnu Hari Nugraha Bintoro; Destian Andhani

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation and interest rates on the stock prices of banking companies listed in the IDX80 index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019–2024 period. Research data were obtained from official reports of banking company stock prices as well as inflation and interest rate data from Bank Indonesia. The study used a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression methods through the SPSS application, and classical assumption tests were conducted as a requirement for analysis. The study population included all IDX80 banking companies, with a saturated sampling technique resulting in five banks that met the criteria during the study period. The results of the partial test indicate that inflation has a positive and significant effect on stock prices, while interest rates have a negative and significant effect on stock prices. This indicates that stable inflation can still improve the performance of the banking sector, while rising interest rates tend to depress stock prices due to increased borrowing costs and a shift in investment to other instruments. The results of the simultaneous test also show that inflation and interest rates together have a significant effect on the stock prices of IDX80 banking companies. The results show that inflation has a significant positive effect on stock prices with a significance value of 0.034, while interest rates have a significant negative effect with a significance value of 0.018. Simultaneously, inflation and interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices with a calculated F value of 14.549 > Ftable 2.70 and a significance of 0.000 < 0.05.

Irlenda Octaviani Torada; Wenten, I Ketut

JURNAL EKONOMI MANAJEMEN AKUNTANSI 2026 sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Dharma Putra Semarang

This study aims to examine and analyze the role of interest rates in strengthening or weakening the effect of Tax Planning and Financial Distress on Firm Value. This research employs a quantitative approach. The population of this study consists of consumer non-cyclical sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2020-2024, totaling 128 companies. The research sample was selected using purposive sampling, resulting in 42 companies that met the specified criteria, with a total of 210 observations. Panel Data Linear Regression Analysis and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) were conducted using Microsoft Excel and E-Views version 12. The results indicate that Tax Planning has no significant effect on Firm Value, while Financial Distress has a significant effect on Firm Value. Regarding the moderating variable, the interest rate is unable to strengthen or weaken the effect of Tax Planning on Firm Value; however, Interest Rates are able to moderate (weaken) the effect of Financial Distress on Firm Value.

Dian Fajarini; Emi Maimunah; Irma Febriana

JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA) 2026 Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis (ITB) Semarang

This study aims to analyze the effect of the implementation of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance), global economic pressures reflected through inflation and exchange rates, as well as bank size on banking performance proxied by Return on Assets (ROA). In addition, this study also aims to examine whether the implementation of ESG is capable of mitigating the impact of global economic pressures on banking performance in countries affected by global economic pressures. The research period covers 2015–2024, with the banking sectors in Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, the Philippines, and India as the research objects. The results indicate that the ESG variable has a negative and significant effect on banking performance. The exchange rate variable is found to have a positive and significant effect on banking performance. Meanwhile, the inflation and bank size variables do not show any effect on banking performance. Furthermore, the findings also reveal that the ESG–exchange rate moderation variable has a positive and significant effect on banking performance. These findings indicate that the implementation of ESG is able to mitigate the impact of global economic pressures originating from exchange rate fluctuations on banking performance in the five countries affected by global economic pressures.

Apriliando Al'nurdinsyah; Lilis Lasmini; Novy Trianthy Noegraha

JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA) 2026 Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis (ITB) Semarang

This study aims to examine the impact of environmental costs and effective tax rates on the firm value of companies in the coal subsector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2020–2024 period. The study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data and purposive sampling, yielding 100 observations from 20 companies. The results show that environmental costs have a significant negative effect, while the effective tax rate has no significant effect on firm value. These findings indicate that external factors, such as macroeconomic dynamics and fluctuations in global commodity prices, are more dominant in influencing firm value than internal factors.

Geri Valdi Mauli; Deny Setiawan; Yusni Maulida; Eka Armas Pailis

JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA) 2026 Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis (ITB) Semarang

This study aims to analyze the influence of gold prices, inflation rates, BI Rate, and exchange rates on the distribution of pawn products (Rahn) at PT. Bank Riau Kepri Syariah Pekanbaru Arifin Ahmad. The research uses a quantitative approach with associative methods, data collection techniques through documentation, and panel data regression analysis using Eviews 12 software. The results of the study show that the price of gold has a significant effect on the distribution of Rahn financing. The higher the price of gold, the greater the amount of financing that can be disbursed because the value of collateral increases so that the risk of Islamic banks is more controlled. Inflation also has a significant effect, where rising inflation encourages people to seek short-term financing through Rahn products  to maintain liquidity and purchasing power. The BI Rate has a significant negative effect, meaning that the increase in the benchmark interest rate reduces interest in interest-bearing financing and encourages customers to choose  interest-free Rahn products  . Conversely, the exchange rate has no significant effect on  the distribution of Rahn, as exchange rate fluctuations do not affect the stability of the value of gold collateral. Overall, Rahn's financing distribution  is more influenced by internal product factors and customer needs than external factors. Rahn's products are proven to be a short-term financing instrument that is safe, fast, and in accordance with sharia principles.  

Dwifani Syuhra Ritonga; Sri Astuty; Abdul Rajab; Irwandi Irwandi; Muhammad Syafri

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the influence of interest rates, exchange rates, and coffee production on the value of coffee exports in South Sulawesi. The background of this study is based on the condition of South Sulawesi coffee exports which have experienced significant fluctuations in recent years despite coffee production tending to increase. This study uses a quantitative approach with time series data for the period 2009-2023 sourced from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the Directorate General of Plantations, the Food Crops, Horticulture and Plantation Service of South Sulawesi Province. Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression through the EViews 12 application with the classical assumption test as a model prerequisite. The results show that partially interest rates have a significant effect on coffee exports, while exchange rates and coffee production do not have a significant effect. Simultaneously, the three independent variables do not have a significant effect on the value of coffee exports. This finding indicates that external factors, especially interest rates, are more dominant in determining the performance of South Sulawesi coffee exports than internal factors of production and exchange rates.

Mochamad Rizal Anwar; M. Taufiq

International Journal of Economics, Commerce, and Management 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Nickel has become a strategic mineral in the global industrial value chain, particularly for stainless steel production and electric vehicle battery manufacturing. As one of the world’s largest nickel producers, Indonesia has implemented a downstream industrialization policy aimed at increasing value added and strengthening export performance. This study analyzes the effects of international nickel prices, destination countries’ GDP per capita, exchange rates, and the downstreaming policy on the value of Indonesia’s nickel exports (HS 75) over the period 2010–2023. The study employs a quantitative approach using panel data regression with secondary data covering five major export destination countries, namely China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore. Based on the Chow and Hausman tests, the Fixed Effects Model is selected as the most appropriate estimation technique, indicating the presence of country-specific heterogeneity among importing countries. The results show that destination countries’ GDP per capita and international nickel prices have a positive and statistically significant effect on Indonesia’s nickel export value. The downstreaming policy dummy variable also exhibits a positive and significant impact, suggesting that the nickel ore export ban implemented since 2020 has effectively shifted export composition toward higher value-added processed nickel products. In contrast, exchange rates are found to have no significant effect on export performance. Overall, the findings provide empirical evidence supporting the effectiveness of Indonesia’s downstream industrialization policy and highlight the importance of global demand conditions in driving the performance of processed nickel exports.

Maria Yovita R Pandin; Alif Fa’is Nurfadila; Ahmad Fauzan Aditama; Dewa Wahyu Ananta; Rio Anggara Putra +1 more

International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of global diversification, exchange rates, and interest rates on the performance of mixed mutual funds in Indonesia during the period 2020–2024. The method used is a quantitative approach with the Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) technique, using secondary data from the Financial Services Authority, Bank Indonesia, and Bareksa. The sample consists of three mixed mutual fund products that meet the criteria of portfolio data completeness, net asset value, and performance report publication. The results show that exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on mutual fund performance, indicating that exchange rate fluctuations play an important role in determining changes in portfolio returns. The global diversification variable proved to have no significant effect, illustrating that exposure to international markets has not provided stable benefits in improving the performance of mixed mutual funds. Interest rates also did not show a significant effect because the composition of mixed portfolios was able to withstand the impact of monetary policy changes. Simultaneously, the three independent variables were able to explain 66.7 percent of the variation in mixed mutual fund performance, indicating that macroeconomic dynamics and portfolio strategies have an important contribution in influencing the performance of this collective investment instrument.

Fabian Crisandy E.D.; Wijaya, Riko Setya; Perdana, Putra

International Journal of Economic, Social and Development Sciences 2025 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This study examines the factors influencing Indonesia’s motor vehicle exports to nine developing countries using the gravity model approach with long-term and short-term panel data. The variables analyzed include the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of partner countries, exchange rates, economic distance, and trade cooperation agreements. The data are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture short-term dynamics and long-term relationships. The long-term results show that partner countries’ GDP has a significant positive effect on Indonesia’s vehicle exports, indicating that economic growth in partner countries increases demand for Indonesian automotive products. Conversely, exchange rates and economic distance have significant negative effects, suggesting that depreciation of partner currencies and economic disparities reduce export volumes. Trade cooperation agreements do not have a significant impact in the long term. In the short term, changes in GDP continue to have a significant positive effect, while exchange rates maintain a significant negative impact on exports. Economic distance and trade agreements are not significant in the short term. The significant and negative error correction term (ECT) confirms the existence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-term equilibrium. This study highlights the importance of partner countries’ economic growth and exchange rate stability in supporting Indonesia’s vehicle exports to developing countries, as well as the need to address structural barriers to improve long-term competitiveness.

Toruan, Putri Lumban; Sinaga, Martina Br.; Andiny, Puti; Safuridar, Safuridar

Akuntansi Pajak dan Kebijakan Ekonomi Digital 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Economic growth is the process of increasing a country's production capacity to generate goods and services over a specific period, reflecting the income and well-being of its people. This research aims to analyse the influence of labor, exchange rates, and exports on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the manufacturing sector in Indonesia during the period 2010-2024. The method used is multiple linear regression analysis with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach, using secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). The research results indicate that all three independent variables, namely labor, exchange rate, and exports, have a positive and significant impact on the GDP of the manufacturing sector, both partially and simultaneously. The coefficient of determination (Adjusted R2) value of 0.9633 indicates that 96.33% of the variation in industrial sector GDP can be explained by these three variables, while 3.76% is influenced by factors outside the model. This research confirms that increased labour productivity, exchange rate stability, and export growth play an important role in strengthening the performance of the manufacturing sector in Indonesia. Therefore, policies focused on improving the quality of human resources, strengthening export competitiveness, and ensuring macroeconomic stability are needed to support the sustainable and globally competitive growth of the manufacturing sector.

Muhammad Roykhannul Arif; Isabela Tania; Kiswatul Janah; Riyanti Wahyuni; Gama Pratama

Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Economic development strategies play a crucial role in achieving sustainable growth through increased national productivity and equitable welfare distribution. The stability of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, exchange rates, and gross domestic product growth reflects the effectiveness of government development policies. This study aims to analyze the relationship between economic development strategies and macroeconomic equilibrium in Indonesia by examining the interconnection between the product market and the money market. The research adopts a qualitative approach using literature studies derived from scholarly journals, academic articles, and economic publications obtained from Google Scholar and other credible sources. The findings indicate that maintaining balance between the product market and the money market contributes significantly to national economic stability. A well-coordinated synergy between fiscal and monetary policies is essential to preserve macroeconomic stability and ensure that economic development progresses inclusively and sustainably amid global challenges.

Wafa Mutmainah; Muhammad Iqbal Pribadi; Rahman Anshari

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Ekonomi 2025 Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of interest rates and economic growth on stock returns in companies in the energy sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2019 to 2023. The method used is a quantitative approach with panel data regression analysis. The study population includes 90 company data from the sector. The sample was determined through a purposive sampling method, resulting in 46 companies that meet the established criteria. The results of the study indicate that interest rates have a significant effect on stock returns, while economic growth also shows a significant effect.

Aulia Syafriza; Zulgani Zulgani; Jaya Kusuma Edy

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to determine and analyze the development and influence of exports, exchange rates, inflation, and GRDP on the exchange rate of smallholder plantation farmers in Jambi Province. This study uses multiple linear regression analysis for the period 2009-2024 in Jambi Province. The development of exports, exchange rates, inflation, and GRDP fluctuates annually. Where the average development of exports in Jambi Province in 2009-2024 was 15.22%, the average development of exchange rates was 3.06%, the average development of inflation was 49.07%, the average development of GRDP was 6.22% and the average development of the exchange rate of smallholder plantation farmers in Jambi Province was 4.57%. The results of the study using multiple linear regression resulted in the finding that the variables of exports, exchange rates, inflation, and GRDP simultaneously influenced the exchange rate of smallholder plantation farmers in Jambi Province in 2009-2024. Meanwhile, partially, the export, exchange rate, and inflation variables have a negative effect on the exchange rate of farmers in the smallholder plantation sub-sector in Jambi Province, while the GRDP variable has a substantial positive effect on the exchange rate of farmers in the smallholder plantation sub-sector in Jambi Province in 2009-2024.

Alivia Maharani; Bilgah Bilgah

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effect of interest rates and inflation on the profitability of property and real estate sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2020-2024. Profitability is measured using the Return on Assets (ROA) ratio, while interest rates refer to the BI-7 Day Reverse Repo Rate and inflation is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Bank Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis methods and classical assumption tests supported by data processing using SPSS version 27 software. The sample was selected using purposive sampling techniques with criteria of companies that consistently submit annual financial reports, do not record losses during the research period, and use the Rupiah currency. The research results indicate that partially, interest rates have a positive and significant effect on profitability, while inflation does not have a significant effect on profitability. However, simultaneously, interest rates and inflation together have a significant effect on the company's profitability. These findings are expected to serve as a strategic reference for companies in formulating financial policies to maintain profitability stability amidst macroeconomic dynamics.

Irfan Fauji; Bachtiar Efendi

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

The digital economy has significantly transformed economic growth by introducing innovations in payment systems and financial services. The modernization of payment instruments through monetary policy has enhanced the ability to control inflation and ensure financial system stability. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy and the utilization of the digital economy in maintaining financial stability in Indonesia. Using time series data from 2010 to 2024 obtained from the World Bank, this research applies the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method to examine both short-term and long-term relationships among variables, including e-money, money supply, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and credit card usage. The results show that e-money has a significant reciprocal influence on the money supply, while inflation is also affected by e-money and interest rates. The impulse response function demonstrates that the interactions among these variables tend to converge towards equilibrium over time. Variance decomposition analysis indicates that in the short term, e-money primarily drives financial stability, whereas in the medium and long term, the money supply plays a dominant role. Overall, the findings suggest that monetary policy, supported by digital economic systems, effectively enhances financial system stability in Indonesia. This research contributes to understanding the dual effect of digital payment innovations and provides recommendations for policymakers to strengthen financial inclusion, economic resilience, and macro-financial stability in the digital era.