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Rossa Stevana; Selarista Selarista; Indra Indra

Nubuat : Jurnal Pendidikan Agama Kristen dan Katolik 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Agama dan Filsafat Indonesia

The Problem-Based Learning (PBL) model is a teaching strategy that focuses on students being the main participants in their education by engaging in the resolution of actual problems. This article looks into how PBL is applied in the classroom, its effects on enhancing students' critical thinking abilities, and the primary attributes of this model that aid in developing problem-solving skills. PBL consists of five key phases: identifying a challenge, organizing research efforts, performing both individual and group inquiries, gathering and sharing findings, and reflecting on the process. These phases create a learning experience that promotes teamwork, self-directed research, and thorough analysis of information. Findings from this research reveal that PBL significantly enhances students' critical thinking skills, particularly in areas like analysis, assessment of evidence, solution formulation, and articulating arguments logically. Furthermore, features of PBL, which include prioritizing students, addressing real-world issues, fostering self-directed learning, encouraging group collaboration, and positioning the teacher as a guide, play a crucial role in enhancing problem-solving capabilities. By tackling issues that relate to their daily lives, PBL motivates students to independently build knowledge, foster innovation, and reinforce their autonomy in the learning journey.

Noverin Andrea Anang; Tjang, Yanto Sandy; Herkulana Mekarryani Soeryamassoka

Nubuat : Jurnal Pendidikan Agama Kristen dan Katolik 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Agama dan Filsafat Indonesia

Gender equality in the religious sphere in Indonesia is a complex phenomenon, shaped by the interaction between theological doctrines, institutional practices, and the socio-cultural context of each tradition. This study employs a qualitative-descriptive approach through literature review to analyze six major religions in Indonesia: Catholicism, Protestantism, Islam, Hindu Dharma, Buddhism, and Confucianism. The analysis focuses on three main dimensions: theological perspectives regarding gender roles and positions, social changes influencing gender relations, and transformations in institutional structures and practices that support gender equality. The findings indicate that historically, women were often placed in subordinate positions due to patriarchal norms, although the core teachings of these religions contain egalitarian principles and recognition of women’s dignity. Contemporary transformations are reflected in the reinterpretation of religious texts and practices that promote gender equality: Catholicism emphasizes the recognition of women’s dignity within the clerical hierarchy; Protestantism opens opportunities for the ordination of female pastors; Islam reinterprets the principles of Qawwamun and family law rights; Balinese Hindu Dharma adjusts women’s roles in rituals and public spheres; Buddhism revives the bhikkhuni order within the sangha; and Confucianism modernizes the interpretation of Wu Lun and San Cong to emphasize mutual responsibilities between husband and wife. In conclusion, despite persistent patriarchal challenges, this study affirms that religion has the potential to act as an agent of social transformation promoting gender equality while maintaining the moral, spiritual, and traditional values distinctive to each tradition. These findings contribute significantly to academic literature, interfaith dialogue, and the development of more gender-inclusive policies.

Hamsina Hamsina; Romansyah Sahabuddin; Muhammad Rakib; Ichwan Musa

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to understand how the spirit of innovation and the meaning of entrepreneurship are constructed through the lived experiences of startup business actors in the digital economy era. Using a qualitative narrative inquiry approach within the social constructivist paradigm, this research explores how startup entrepreneurs interpret innovation, resilience in the face of failure, and social responsibility as integral parts of their entrepreneurial identity. Data were collected through in-depth interviews, non-participant observation, and document analysis of startups in the technology, education, and creative economy sectors in Indonesia. Narrative thematic analysis reveals that innovation is understood not merely as a business strategy but also as a form of self-expression and the construction of entrepreneurial identity. Failure is perceived as a reflective learning process that shapes resilience and generates new meaning in the entrepreneurial journey. Moreover, entrepreneurship is interpreted as a meaningful journey that integrates economic goals with social and moral values. The digital ecosystem functions as a social space where entrepreneurial values are negotiated, shared, and reinforced through interaction and collaboration. These findings affirm that entrepreneurship in the digital era is a social process involving creativity, ethical reflection, and sustainable innovation. Theoretically, this study contributes to expanding the understanding of entrepreneurship as a social practice, while practically emphasizing the importance of reflective learning and value awareness in building a sustainable and meaningful startup ecosystem for society.

Nasrullah Nasrullah; Romansyah Sahabuddin; Rahmatullah Rahmatullah; Abdul Rahim

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the implementation of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) as a strategic performance evaluation tool in the era of digital transformation. Using a descriptive qualitative approach within the social constructivist paradigm, data were collected through in-depth interviews, non-participant observation, and document analysis in three organizations undergoing digitalization. Thematic analysis (Braun & Clarke, 2006) identified four main themes in the application of the BSC: digital strategy alignment, digital readiness and data integration, a culture of learning and innovation, and adaptive leadership transformation. The findings indicate that the BSC functions not only as a performance measurement system but also as an adaptive, collaborative, and data-driven strategic management framework. The integration of digital technologies accelerates decision-making processes and strengthens reflective organizational culture. Theoretically, this study extends the classical BSC model of Kaplan and Norton (1996, 2001) toward a Digital Balanced Scorecard that emphasizes synergy among strategy, data, and organizational learning. Practically, the results highlight the importance of digital readiness, an innovation-oriented culture, and adaptive leadership as key foundations for successful BSC implementation in the era of digital disruption.

Agus Salen; Romansyah Sahabuddin; Chalid Imran Musa; Thamrin Tahir; Agung Widhi Kurniawan

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to understand the meaning of adaptive leadership in modern organizations facing transformations in work culture during the era of disruption. Using a phenomenological qualitative approach within the social constructivist paradigm, this research explores the lived experiences of leaders in interpreting change, uncertainty, and human values amid digitalization and organizational complexity. Data were collected through in-depth interviews and non-participant observation involving eight leaders from various industrial sectors in Indonesia and were analyzed using Colaizzi’s phenomenological analysis technique. The findings reveal that adaptive leadership is understood as a reflective and social process rooted in value awareness, empathy, and collective learning capacity. Adaptive leaders not only direct change but also facilitate learning and build trust through open communication and collaborative work cultures. Adaptive values such as flexibility, empathy, and moral reflection are key to shaping inclusive and sustainable organizational cultural transformation. Theoretically, this study extends the discourse on adaptive leadership within phenomenological and social contexts, while practically emphasizing the importance of value-based reflective leadership in navigating disruptive change.

Fadillah Fadillah; Romansyah Sahabuddin; Anwar Ramli; Ikhwan Maulana

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to understand how green accounting practices are constructed as a social reality within organizations and how environmental awareness develops through social interaction, organizational values, and culture. The research adopts an interpretive qualitative approach within the social construction paradigm (Berger & Luckmann, 1966). Data were collected through in-depth interviews, participant observation, and document analysis in organizations that have implemented sustainability reporting. The analysis employed an interpretive thematic approach to uncover the meanings underlying environmental accounting practices. The findings indicate that green accounting functions not only as a technical reporting instrument but also as a mechanism for shaping organizational moral and ecological awareness. Environmental awareness is constructed through three main stages: the externalization of sustainability values by leadership, objectivation through policies and reporting systems, and internalization within work behavior and organizational culture. Participatory, reflective, and innovation-oriented organizational cultures strengthen the substantive implementation of green accounting, whereas bureaucratic structures tend to produce symbolic practices or greenwashing. Theoretically, this study reinforces the view that accounting is a social practice that both shapes and is shaped by collective consciousness (Hopwood, 1992; Gray, 2010). Practically, the findings highlight the importance of visionary leadership and social learning spaces in fostering a sustainability-oriented organizational culture. Thus, green accounting is understood as a social process that plays a strategic role in realizing ethical, sustainable, and environmentally responsible organizations.

Kresna Ningsih Manik; Siti Aisah Ginting

Kegiatan Positif : Jurnal Hasil Karya Pengabdian Masyarakat 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

Early English mastery is a long-term educational investment that should be supported by instructional approaches aligned with children’s developmental characteristics. This community service program aimed to systematically implement the *English Through Play* approach, enhance English learning interest, and create positive learning experiences for children aged 4–6 years at Samantha English Course. The program was conducted participatorily through preparation, implementation, and evaluation stages over eight weeks. The *English Through Play* approach was applied through various activities, including action songs, flashcard games, storytelling with gestures, and simple role play. Evaluation was carried out descriptively through observation of participation, verbal responses, children’s expressions, and simple oral tests to measure basic vocabulary mastery. The results showed that more than 80% of the children were actively engaged during the learning sessions. Approximately 70–85% demonstrated increased learning interest, as reflected in their enthusiasm, verbal participation, and positive responses to English instructions. In addition, most children were able to recognize and pronounce 5–10 basic vocabulary items based on the learning themes and perform simple self-introductions. The program also produced a play-based learning guide that can be sustainably implemented by the partner institution. In conclusion, the *English Through Play* approach proved effective in enhancing young learners’ interest and participation in early English learning. This model can serve as a practical and replicable alternative for similar non-formal educational institutions.

Dimas Wahyu Fahriski; Agung Winarno; Subagyo Subagyo

Jurnal Nuansa : Publikasi Ilmu Manajemen dan Ekonomi Syariah 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

The development of artificial intelligence has revolutionized higher education by increasing the efficiency and personalization of learning, but it has also posed a major challenge in the form of a decline in students' critical thinking skills due to their dependence on technology. Therefore, an in-depth philosophical study through the post-positivism, critical theory, and constructivism paradigms is needed to understand its impact on cognitive and epistemological processes. This study aims to analyze how these three paradigms guide the development of critical thinking in the context of AI. It uses a descriptive-analytical method based on secondary data from academic literature such as journals and books that have been critically synthesized. The findings show that post-positivism views AI as a tentative critical realism tool for empirical verification. Critical theory critiques power relations, ideology, and the ethics of technological domination. Constructivism emphasizes the construction of social knowledge through human-centered design that supports creativity and collaboration. The positive impacts of AI include instant feedback and content adaptation, while the negative impacts include social isolation, weak digital literacy, and data privacy. Therefore, the implication is the wise use of AI with the assistance of teaching staff to strengthen reflective analysis, ethical literacy, and paradigm adjustments in accordance with the exact or social sciences to create multidimensional learning in the digital era.

Choirul Anam; Muhammad Saiful Rijal; Iva Khoiril Mala

Jurnal Bisnis Kreatif dan Inovatif 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study developed the Weton-Based Leadership Model as a leadership framework that integrates Javanese cultural values from the weton system with modern leadership theories, such as transformational, servant, charismatic, and situational leadership. Using a postmodern paradigm with an exploratory qualitative approach, this study utilizes pattern matching and explanation building methods through in-depth interviews with cultural experts and human resource management practitioners, as well as analysis of Javanese cultural documents. The results of the study identify five key components in the model, namely self-awareness, value alignment, situational adaptability, team harmony, and risk governance. These five components interact with each other to form contextual leadership that is in harmony with personal identity, organizational culture, and environmental demands. The practical implications of this study include the use of weton as a reflective instrument in recruitment, personalized leadership development, and the strengthening of an inclusive organizational culture. Further research is recommended to test this model in various industrial contexts through quantitative methods and longitudinal approaches.

Ricky Bryan D.P. Tampubolon; Annisa Intan Kirana; Kiki Septia Ihwan; Moh Wildan Muzakka Khaizulmuna; Yesha Novita Rusmana

Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to examine the effect of accounts payable, profitability, and Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) on audit fees in FMCG Food & Beverage companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for 2020–2024. A quantitative method using multiple linear regression was applied, supported by classical assumption tests including normality, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity tests which indicated that the model is statistically valid. The regression results show that accounts payable significantly affects audit fees (sig 0.002), while profitability (sig 0.286) and OCI (sig 0.064) have no significant partial effect. Simultaneously, all variables significantly influence audit feeswith an F-test value of 0.000. The coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.576 indicates that 57.6% of audit fee variation is explained by the independent variables. These findings highlight that company risk, reflected in higher accounts payable, is the primary determinant of audit fees in the FMCG sector.

Viki Bayu Mahendra; Ghufron Ali Sya’bana

Jurnal Hasil Kegiatan Bersama Masyarakat 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This community service program was initiated in response to the need to strengthen collaboration between parents and schools in fostering character development and noble morals among elementary school students. The main issue addressed was the lack of structured and sustainable educational collaboration between parents and the school in supporting character-building practices. The program aimed to develop a participatory and reflective collaboration model through a systematic parenting initiative. A qualitative participatory approach based on community engagement was employed, consisting of needs assessment, joint discussion and planning, parenting program design, workshops and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), mentoring and monitoring, as well as evaluation and reflection. The results highlight significant improvements in two-way communication between parents and teachers, increased collective awareness of the family’s strategic role in character education, and the establishment of a regular communication forum as a new social structure within the school community. Positive changes were also observed in parenting practices, including the implementation of positive discipline and empathetic communication at home aligned with school values. The emergence of local parent leaders further strengthened program sustainability. Overall, the participatory educational collaboration model proved effective in promoting social transformation and reinforcing sustainable character and moral development among students.

Rika Surianto Zalukhu; Rapat Piter Sony Hutauruk; Daniel Collyn; Suci Etri Jayanti S.; Sri Winda Hardiyanti Damanik

Kajian Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Terapan 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the impact of business combinations through acquisition on the financial performance of PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. The research employs a descriptive quantitative approach, focusing on the acquiring firm in the Indonesian telecommunications infrastructure sector. The data used are secondary data obtained from the company’s annual financial statements for the period 2019–2023, sourced from the Indonesia Stock Exchange and the company’s official website. Financial performance is analyzed using Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Profit Margin (NPM), and Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) by comparing the periods before, during, and after the acquisition conducted in 2021. The results indicate that the acquisition exerted short-term pressure on asset efficiency and profitability, as reflected by the decline in ROA and NPM in the year of acquisition. However, in the post-acquisition period, the company demonstrated an improvement in operational performance, particularly in Net Profit Margin, suggesting that the economic benefits of the business combination gradually materialized. Meanwhile, fluctuations in ROE and DER reflect adjustments in the capital structure following the acquisition. These findings suggest that the success of an acquisition cannot be evaluated solely based on short-term financial performance but requires continuous assessment to capture its medium- and long-term effects. This study provides practical implications for management in formulating post-acquisition integration strategies and contributes empirically to the accounting and finance literature on business combinations in Indonesia.

Mia Septiara Siringo Ringo; Dewinta Putri Ardana; Rahman, Muhammad

Jurnal Bisnis, Ekonomi Syariah, dan Pajak 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

The development of information technology has transformed trade from traditional markets to digital platforms, including Cash on Delivery (COD) payment systems. This study analyzes the integration of the COD system with the istishna contract in online transactions (specifically on Shopee), its implementation mechanisms, and its validity according to Islamic jurisprudence (fiqh muamalah). The research method used a descriptive qualitative approach through digital observation and literature review. The focus of the study was on pre-order or custom product transactions made after a specification agreement between the buyer (mustashni') and seller (shani'). The results showed that the COD system is valid in the istishna contract because it allows for final payment upon receipt of the goods. This is in accordance with Sharia law as long as the product specifications are clear, the price is transparent, and the buyer's right to khiyar is fulfilled to ensure the goods conform to the contract. As long as it is free from riba (usury), gharar (gharar), and tadlis (tadlis), the COD method in istishna transactions reflects fairness, openness, and benefits for both parties in the digital economy ecosystem.

Intan Khusnatul Ibad

Presidensial : Jurnal Hukum, Administrasi Negara, dan Kebijakan Publik 2025 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

This study aims to evaluate the public transportation service policy of Trans Jatim Bus Corridor 2, operating on the Mojokerto–Surabaya route, using the six evaluation indicators proposed by William N. Dunn: effectiveness, efficiency, adequacy, equity, responsiveness, and appropriateness. Employing a qualitative descriptive approach, data were collected through interviews, direct observations, and secondary data analysis. The findings reveal that the Trans Jatim Corridor 2 service has significantly contributed to improving accessibility and mobility for the people of East Java. In terms of effectiveness, the service meets transportation policy objectives by offering strategic routes, consistent schedules, and accessible bus stops. Efficiency is demonstrated through optimal utilization of limited fleets and operational costs, while still meeting high passenger demand. Regarding adequacy, the service is generally sufficient; however, overcrowding during peak hours indicates the need for capacity improvements. Equity is reflected in the widespread distribution of bus stops, although disparities remain in the availability of facilities and route information across several stops. The service shows high responsiveness through quick handling of passenger complaints via applications and social media. Additionally, service appropriateness is evident in its punctual operations supported by GPS-based monitoring and real-time information through the TRANSJATIM-AJAIB application. Overall, the evaluation shows that Trans Jatim Corridor 2 provides effective, efficient, and responsive public transport services, yet requires improvements in capacity and equitable distribution of facilities to achieve optimal service quality.

Achmad Rizky Airlangga; Faiq Muhammad Zufar; Syahputra Aditya Kusrin Surbakti

Presidensial : Jurnal Hukum, Administrasi Negara, dan Kebijakan Publik 2025 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

The authority of the Religious Courts in Indonesia has undergone substantial transformation since the enactment of the 1974 Marriage Law, which serves as a foundational milestone in harmonizing the national legal system on family matters. Prior to this legislation, the jurisdiction of the Religious Courts was limited and influenced by legal dualism among customary law, Islamic law, and Western civil law inherited from the colonial period. This article examines how the Marriage Law initiated a shift in the structure and legitimacy of the Religious Courts and how their jurisdictional expansion reached a more comprehensive form through Law No. 7 of 1989 on Religious Courts and its subsequent amendments under Law No. 3 of 2006 and Law No. 50 of 2009. Using a normative juridical approach, this study analyzes statutory regulations, academic literature, and Islamic legal doctrines. The findings show that the Marriage Law provided the initial legal foundation for strengthening the Religious Courts' authority in handling family disputes, which was later expanded significantly to include inheritance, wills, grants, endowments (wakaf), alms (zakat), charitable donations (infaq and sadaqah), and Islamic economic matters during the legal reform era. This transformation not only reinforced the institutional structure of the Religious Courts but also improved access to justice for Muslim communities and supported the integration of Islamic law into Indonesia’s national legal framework. Therefore, the development of the Religious Courts’ authority after the Marriage Law reflects the dynamic modernization of the legal system and the harmonization between religious values and the rule of law in Indonesia.

Anisa Sahara; Kuswandi Kuswandi

Parlementer : Jurnal Studi Hukum dan Administrasi Publik 2025 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

This study analyzes online fraud as one of the most common forms of cybercrime in Indonesia, which has expanded alongside rapid advances in information and communication technology. These crimes utilize digital platforms such as social media, online marketplaces, and fraudulent websites to deceive victims for unlawful financial gain. The research aims to examine online fraud from a criminological perspective by identifying its causes, patterns, and relevance to routine activity theory and differential association theory. A normative juridical method is employed, using statutory, conceptual, and case-based approaches, with qualitative and descriptive analysis. The findings show that online fraud reflects a shift from conventional fraud to digital-based crimes, driven by low public awareness of cybersecurity, easy access to technology, and weak online supervision. Several fraud schemes were identified, including online investment scams, phishing, and identity impersonation. This study highlights the need for an integrated approach that goes beyond law enforcement by emphasizing digital literacy, public education, and cross-sector collaboration to reduce cybercrime in Indonesia.

Nabil Ulil Albab; Ahmad Nafhani

Router : Jurnal Teknik Informatika dan Terapan 2025 Asosiasi Profesi Telekomunikasi dan Informatika Indonesia

Per capita expenditure is an important indicator of household welfare because it reflects the economic capacity and consumption patterns of the community, as explained in Engel's Law. In regions with diverse geographical characteristics such as Papua Province, spatial analysis is needed to understand the variations in expenditure between districts/cities and the differences between urban and rural areas. This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of per capita expenditure percentages for food and non-food items in nine districts/cities in Papua Province during the 2022–2024 period. The research data was sourced from the National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas). The methods used included quantile-based choropleth mapping using QGIS, attribute data merging through table joins, and Pearson's correlation test to evaluate the consistency of spending patterns between years. The analysis results show that food and non-food spending patterns were relatively stable during the observation period with high correlation values (r = 0,85–0,93), although spatial variations between regions were still apparent. Mamberamo Raya Regency consistently had the highest proportion of food spending (>68%), while Jayapura City showed the lowest proportion. These findings indicate spatial disparities related to urbanization levels and economic access. Spatial visualization proved effective in revealing regional disparity patterns that were not fully apparent through conventional statistical tables and has the potential to support the formulation of more evidence-based regional development policies.  

Samuel Elkana; Henry Sutanto; Donalia Reynaldo

International Journal of Christian and Catholic Philosophy 2025 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This study examines the role of digital church music as a medium for evangelism and discipleship within the digital ecosystem. It employs a mixed methods approach using a sequential explanatory design, in which quantitative data collection is followed by qualitative exploration. Quantitative data were gathered through an online survey of at least 200 respondents to measure the intensity of digital worship music consumption, perceived gospel understanding, faith reflection, and spiritual engagement. Qualitative data were obtained through in-depth interviews with 15–20 key informants and digital content analysis of worship songs, service videos, and social media interactions. The findings indicate that digital church music contributes to strengthening gospel understanding, encouraging faith reflection, and expanding discipleship practices through online spaces. A moderate positive correlation between music consumption intensity and spiritual engagement suggests that music functions as a contextual medium for faith formation. This study highlights the importance of adaptive theological and pastoral strategies for church music ministry in the digital era.

Molle, Jhonderic

International Journal of Christian and Catholic Philosophy 2025 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

Contemporary church ministry is often trapped in a seasonal pattern, with increased activity only during major events like Christmas and Easter, while stagnating at other times. This phenomenon indicates a fundamental problem in leadership patterns that are not poverty-oriented. This article analyzes the roots of seasonal church ministry through a qualitative-descriptive approach and theological reflection based on Osmer's framework. Literature reviews by Barna, Maxwell, Banks & Ledbetter, as well as the leadership principles of Jesus Christ, show that seasonality is eliminated by reactive leadership that lacks a long-term vision, minimal spiritual training, and a weak ministerial cadre system. As a solution, this article offers a sustainable leadership model that emphasizes a year-round discipleship vision, ministerial training and regeneration, systematic ministry evaluation, and the spiritual example of leaders. This model is believed to help churches experience stable growth, establish a consistent ministry rhythm, and present relevant evidence to the world. Thus, sustainable leadership is a strategic and theological approach to addressing seasonal ministry and strengthening the mission of the church today.

Zaki Mahbub; Alfin Noval Hadi; Reihan Afandi; Muhammad Abdullah Azzam

Mars: Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro Dan Ilmu Komputer 2025 Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

The instability of the climate is becoming increasingly prominent across Southeast Asia, creating uncertainty in agricultural systems that are highly dependent on seasonal weather patterns. Indonesia, where rice remains the primary staple food, is particularly vulnerable to the effects of rising temperatures and rainfall deficits. This study applies the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to predict rice production while incorporating indicators of extreme climate anomalies. Using publicly available datasets, including FAOSTAT production statistics, NOAA rainfall and temperature anomalies, and climate indices from the World Bank, this model was developed following the Box-Jenkins procedure. Among the configurations tested, the SARIMA model (1,1,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ showed the strongest performance, reflected in a MAPE of 4.62% and low RMSE values. The model indicates that significant El Niño events can reduce annual rice production by 3–7%, while wetter La Niña conditions may support production recovery. These findings highlight the importance of integrating climate-sensitive data into agricultural forecasting. The model presented here could support early warning systems, adaptive farming strategies, and long-term food security planning in Indonesia.