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Condo Leezza Chrismanta; Citra Azra Amalia; Nabila Isyana Putri; Muhammad Zia Ulhaq; Muhammad Adymas Hikal Fikri

Presidensial : Jurnal Hukum, Administrasi Negara, dan Kebijakan Publik 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

The waste problem in Indonesia has now reached a critical stage and has become an increasingly serious environmental issue. The ever-increasing volume of waste is not being managed effectively, leading to various negative impacts, particularly environmental pollution. This study aims to examine the state of waste management in Indonesia and its impact on water pollution from the perspective of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The method used is descriptive qualitative research through a literature review utilizing various sources such as journals, official reports, and legislation. The results indicate that the majority of waste originates from household activities, while management practices remain rudimentary, such as the “collect-transport-dispose” method and open dumping. This situation leads to waste accumulation, which contributes to water pollution, deteriorating environmental quality, and increased health risks for the community. Furthermore, suboptimal waste management also poses a challenge in achieving sustainable development goals, particularly regarding responsible consumption and access to clean water and sanitation. Therefore, improved efforts are needed through the application of the reduce, reuse, recycle (3R) principles, increased public awareness, and the active role of the government and the private sector in providing a sustainable waste management system. With the right measures, it is hoped that the waste problem in Indonesia can be reduced and the environment preserved.

Rodifah Rodifah; Abdurrahim Fadhl; Firda Ulinnuha; Bagus Maulana; Tajudin M.M.

Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Bisnis 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

The results of the study show that pricing strategy contributes dominantly to increasing sales, but the lack of digital promotion causes limited market reach. Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) play a crucial role in driving national economic development and providing employment. However, in facing an increasingly competitive market, MSMEs need to implement efficient marketing strategies to ensure sustainability and sustainable growth. This community service activity aims to provide knowledge and assistance to Indonesian Es Teh MSMEs regarding the implementation of flexible marketing strategies, both through digital and traditional channels. The activity took place at the Es Teh Kampung Solo outlet in Kramatwatu Square. The methods used included counseling, training, and assessment of marketing strategy implementation, with a primary focus on optimizing social media as an interactive and competitive digital promotional tool. The results of this activity demonstrated a significant increase in MSMEs' understanding of strategic marketing planning, promotional innovation, and the use of digital platforms to expand market reach. Thus, it is hoped that digital-based marketing strategies can strengthen the competitiveness and sustainability of MSMEs. This activity is expected to contribute to increasing the competitiveness and sales volume of the Kampung Solo Es Teh MSME in a sustainable manner through the implementation of a modern marketing approach that is responsive to technological changes.

Selfidiana Roza; Arfimasri Arfimasri; Viyata Rahmadhani

Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Bisnis 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Amid intense market competition, the profitability of manufacturing companies is not solely determined by sales volume but is highly dependent on the precision of financial management, particularly in managing the working capital cycle and operating cash flow circulation. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between Working Capital Turnover (X1) and Operating Cash Flow (X2) on Profitability (Y) in consumer goods industry companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2022–2024 period. Using a quantitative approach and multiple linear regression analysis, this study processes 77 observations that have passed purposive sampling and outlier testing. The partial test results reveal contrasting findings: Working Capital Turnover (X1) does not have a significant effect on profitability, while Operating Cash Flow (X2) is proven to be a strong positive determinant. However, simultaneously, both variables have a significant influence on the financial performance of companies (Fhitung 24,008 > Ftabel 3,08), with operating cash flow acting as the dominant driving factor of profit. The implications of these findings emphasize that to maintain profit stability, management should prioritize the availability of cash generated from core operations, while investors should be more attentive to cash flow trends as an indicator of fundamental financial health before making investment decisions.

Alhoi Andrew Jefferson; Darwin Lie; Hendry; Merry Rusida

Jurnal Pemimpin Bisnis Inovatif 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen dan Bisnis Indonesia

One of the most actively traded and liquid stock groups in the capital market is the LQ45 index, which consistently attracts investor attention due to its strong market capitalization and transaction volume. This study aims to analyze the influence of financial performance and financial management strategies on firm value among companies listed in the LQ45 index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2018–2022 period. The study population consisted of 73 LQ45-indexed companies, with purposive sampling used to select 23 companies that met the research criteria. This research employed a quantitative approach using path analysis to examine both direct and indirect relationships among variables. The findings indicate that profitability and leverage have a positive and significant effect on firm value. In addition, profitability and leverage also positively influence firm size, indicating that companies with stronger profitability and effective debt management tend to expand their operational scale. However, firm size does not significantly affect firm value and is unable to mediate the relationship between profitability, leverage, and firm value. These results suggest that investors place greater emphasis on profitability and leverage indicators than company size when evaluating firm value in LQ45 companies. Therefore, effective financial performance remains the primary factor in enhancing corporate value and investor confidence.

Ilham Ahmadi; Erry Yudhya Mulyani; Anastina Tahjoo

International Journal of Economics, Commerce, and Management 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Prolonged outpatient waiting time remains a major challenge in public hospitals and reflects inefficiencies in service process management. Internal medicine clinics are characterised by high service complexity and patient volume, making them particularly vulnerable to process waste that contributes to extended waiting times. Objective: This study aimed to develop an outpatient service flow model based on the Lean Hospital approach to reduce waiting time in the internal medicine clinic of RSUD Balaraja. Methods: A qualitative case study design was employed. Data were collected through direct observation of outpatient service processes, document review, and Focus Group Discussions (FGD) with relevant stakeholders. Process analysis was conducted using Value Stream Mapping (VSM) to identify value-added and non–value-added activities, while Fishbone Diagram analysis was applied to explore the root causes of process inefficiencies. All findings were integrated to develop a future-state outpatient service flow model. Results: The findings indicate that prolonged outpatient waiting time is primarily influenced by inefficient service flow design, repetitive administrative processes, and weak coordination among service units. The proposed service flow model demonstrates a more streamlined, integrated, and patient-centred process, with potential reductions in waiting time through systematic waste elimination and process improvement. Conclusion: The Lean Hospital approach provides an effective framework for developing outpatient service flow models in public hospitals. The proposed model offers a practical basis for improving outpatient service efficiency in complex clinical settings such as internal medicine clinics.

Komariya Komariya; Maizar Maizar; Nurmayunita Nurmayunita

Jurnal Manajemen Riset Inovasi 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study aims to determine the effect of product availability, communication effectiveness, and promotional strategy on sales volume at PT.Distribusindo Cemerlang Jaya, a cosmetic and skincare distribution company in Batam city. The background of this research is based on pre-survey result indicating suboptimal sales volume along with operational challenges including stock shortages, communicatiob gaps, and limited promotional activities.ths research employs a quantitative method. The population consist of all comsumers, with a sample of 43 respondent selected using a saturated sampling technique. Data were collected through questionnaires using a likert scale and analyzed using validity and reliability test, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression, t-test, F-test, and coefficient of determination (R²) with SPSS. Result show that partially, product availability does not significantly affect sales volume (sig. 0,313 > 0,05), and communication effectiveness also does not significantly affect sales volume (sig. 0,898 > 0,05). However, promotional strategy has a positive and significant effect  on sales volume (sig, 0,000 < 0,05). Simultaneously, all three variables significantly affect sales volume (F = 212.642, sig. 0,000 < 0,05). The coefficient of determination (R²) is 0,942 indicating that 94,2% of the variation in sales volume is explained by the three independent variables. Promotional strategy is the most dominant factor influencing sales volume is explained by the three independent variables. Promotional strategy is the most dominant factor influencing sales volume at PT.Distribusindo Cemerlang Jaya.  

Merry Moy Mita

Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

The rapid acceleration of the digital economy has positioned Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) at a strategic crossroads. This study investigates the impact of digital marketing and social media marketing on the performance of SMEs in Binjai, North Sumatra, while exploring the mediating role of Electronic Word of Mouth (e-WOM). Utilizing a quantitative approach with a sample of 182 SME owners, data were analyzed using multiple linear regression and path analysis via SPSS 26. The findings demonstrate that digital marketing and social media marketing initiatives significantly and positively influence business performance, accounting for 54.2% of the variance. Notably, social media marketing emerged as the most dominant predictor, fostering high levels of customer engagement. Furthermore, path analysis reveals that e-WOM serves as a critical mediator; effective social media strategies stimulate authentic digital testimonials, which subsequently enhance consumer trust and sales volume. This research concludes that for SMEs in emerging local markets like Binjai, the orchestration of digital reputation through e-WOM is fundamental to achieving sustainable competitive advantage in an increasingly volatile digital landscape.

Reni Dwi Fitriani; Articha Zahra; Ressa Arif Fadhilah; M.Yusuf Bahtiar

Jurnal Riset dan Publikasi Ilmu Ekonomi 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the impact of inflation on the profitability of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) operating in traditional markets. Inflation influences key business aspects, including rising production costs, declining consumer purchasing power, and instability in input prices, all of which can disrupt business performance. The research employed a quantitative approach using survey data collected from MSME actors to assess these effects. The findings reveal that inflation has a significant negative impact on MSME profitability, particularly through the reduction of profit margins. This occurs as businesses face higher raw material costs while simultaneously experiencing a decline in sales volume due to weakened consumer demand. As a result, many MSMEs struggle to maintain financial stability and sustain their operations under inflationary pressure. These findings highlight the need for adaptive strategies among MSMEs, such as cost efficiency and pricing adjustments. Additionally, the study offers important policy implications for the government to support MSMEs through targeted interventions, including price stabilization measures and financial assistance programs, in order to maintain business resilience and economic sustainability.

Aulia Putri Evindra; Kemala Rita; Sandra Dewi

International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a growing global health concern that significantly affects patients’ quality of life. At Bhakti Asih General Hospital, Tangerang, the number of hemodialysis patients increased by 20.42% and dialysis procedures by 25.06% between 2023 and 2024. Despite this service expansion, preliminary findings revealed that 32% of patients reported poor quality of life, 31% experienced low engagement in care, 34% demonstrated low self-efficacy particularly in dietary and fluid management and 32% faced accessibility barriers. These findings indicate a gap between increased service volume and patient-centered outcomes. This study aimed to analyze the effects of patient engagement and self-efficacy on the quality of life of hemodialysis patients, with healthcare accessibility as a mediating variable. A quantitative cross-sectional design was employed. Active hemodialysis patients were selected using purposive sampling. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM).The results demonstrated that patient engagement and self-efficacy had significant positive effects on quality of life, both directly and indirectly through accessibility. Accessibility also significantly influenced quality of life and strengthened the relationships between patient engagement, self-efficacy, and quality of life.These findings highlight the importance of integrating patient engagement strategies, strengthening self-efficacy through education, and improving service accessibility to enhance quality of life among hemodialysis patients

Kaisa Zahwa Azhara; Nabila Destia Leviana; Nahdia Hulwa Imania; Dwi Arya Pangestu; M. Yusuf Bahtiar

Jurnal Pariwisata Indonesia 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti Dan Pengajar Ilmu Sosial Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the contribution and potential of the Lampung Province tourism sector to national economic growth in the 2020-2025 period. Using a quantitative descriptive approach using the Location Quotient (LQ) and Shift Share methods, this study processes secondary data on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at constant prices from the Central Statistics Agency. The analysis shows that although Lampung's macroeconomic performance is still dominated by the primary sector, the tourism sector, particularly the accommodation and food and beverage subsector, has demonstrated post-pandemic resilience with a significant positive growth trend. In 2024, the GRDP value of this subsector at the provincial level reached IDR 4,616.76 billion, with strategic areas such as Bandar Lampung City confirming the accommodation sector as a base sector (LQ > 1) with a high competitive advantage. The integration of a creative economy based on local wisdom, such as the use of Tapis cloth and digital marketing, has been proven to increase the attractiveness of destinations, capable of driving the volume of domestic tourist trips to reach 17.87 million trips by 2024. This finding confirms that Lampung's tourism sector is not only a regional economic driver, but also makes a substantial contribution to national income through a multiplier effect on job creation and increasing domestic foreign exchange. Optimizing collaboration between policymakers and accelerating infrastructure development are key to strengthening the strategic position of Lampung tourism in the future.

I Gusti Made Juniarta; Cing Cing Wahyuni; Pungky Dios Purnomo; Dyah Palupiningtyas

International Journal of Communication, Tourism, and Social Economic Trends 2026 Asosiasi Penelitian dan Pengajar Ilmu Sosial Indonesia

This research aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Online Travel Agent (OTA) distribution channels in influencing room sales volume and net profit for hotels in Java. Although OTAs have become a primary distribution choice that successfully boosts sales figures, there is still a lack of research highlighting the impact on net profitability due to high commission costs.Using a quantitative associative method through panel data regression analysis, this study examines the causal relationship between the proportion of sales made via OTAs and two performance indicators over a two-year period (2021–2023). The primary findings reveal a dual effect:OTA Distribution Channels have a positive and significant influence on Room Sales Volume (supporting Hypothesis H1).Conversely, OTAs have a significant negative impact on Hotel Profit Margins (supporting Hypothesis H2), indicating a substantial financial trade-off.The contribution of this research is to provide balanced empirical evidence regarding volume gains versus margin losses resulting from OTA usage. The managerial implications suggested by these findings are that hotels need to implement distribution strategies focused on Net Revenue Management and channel mix optimization to achieve a balance between volume requirements and profitability.

Ketut Yuliani Wijaya; Rokiah Kusumapradja; Muhammad Fachruddin Arrozi

International Journal of Management Science and Entrepreneurship 2026 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

Patient experience reflects patient’s comprehensive perceptions of service quality, the physical environment, and communication with healthcare providers. This study was motivated by the need to foster positive patient experience in the Pharmacy Installation of Graha Sehat Hospital, Probolinggo through improvements in service quality, servicescape, and effective communication. The objective of this research was to analyze the effects of service quality and servicescape on patient experience, with effective communication serving as an intervening variable. A quantitative approach was employed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with AMOS. A total of 180 outpatient pharmacy patients were selected through voluntary sampling, with the sample size determined based on Hair’s method. The findings indicate that service quality, servicescape, and effective communication simultaneously exert a positive and significant effect on patient experience. Partially, service quality has a positive and significant effect on patient experience, while servicescape does not have a direct significant effect on patient experience. Effective communication, however, demonstrates a positive and significant influence on patient experience. Furthermore, effective communication significantly mediates the relationship between servicescape and patient experience, but it does not mediate the relationship between service quality and patient experience. The managerial implications for hospital management highlight the need to strengthen service quality improvement strategies, optimize spatial layout and environmental comfort in the pharmacy setting, and establish concise communication standards that include essential medication counseling points. Such measures are necessary to ensure that communication quality remains consistent, even during peak patient volume periods with limited-service time.

Adit Ajie Nugraha; Lucia Litha Respati; Windhu Nugroho; Henny Magdalena; Agus Winarno

Globe: Publikasi Ilmu Teknik, Teknologi Kebumian, Ilmu Perkapalan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

Measuring coal volume in the Stock ROM area played an important role in production control and mining evaluation. This research was conducted in the Stock ROM area at PT. Victor Dua Tiga Mega, where volume measurements were generally carried out using Total Station (TS) as the main method, howefer the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) has begun to be implemented as a more efficient alternative. This study aims to compare the results of Stock ROM coal volume calculations using the Total Station and UAV methods. The research method was carried out by collecting data in the field, processing the digital Elevation Model (DEM), and calculating the volume using the Cut and Fill method. The results of the study the difference in volume between the two methods, where the UAV measurement results tend to be greater than those of the Total Station. The difference in Fine Coal volume was 724,15 m3 or 16,74% and Raw Coal volume of 9.335,98 m3 or 8,03%. Based on a comparison with weighing data, measurements using the Total Station provided results that were closer to the actual conditions in the field.

Susanto, Eko; Sharipuddin; Purnama, Benni

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Teknik 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

The rapid growth of e-commerce in Indonesia, particularly the Shopee platform, has generated a large volume of user reviews on the Google Play Store, which can be analyzed to understand consumer sentiment. This study aims to compare the performance of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms in binary sentiment classification (positive and negative) on Shopee reviews, as well as to statistically test the significance of their differences using One-Way ANOVA. A total of 400,498 reviews were collected via web scraping, preprocessed through text normalization, tokenization, and Indonesian language stemming, and then feature-extracted using TF-IDF and Count Vectorizer. Evaluation results show that SVM achieved an accuracy of 91.77%, precision of 91.49%, recall of 91.77%, and F1-Score of 91.56%, while RF achieved an accuracy of 90.07%, precision of 91.68%, recall of 90.07%, and F1-Score of 90.55%. ANOVA confirmed that the performance difference between the two algorithms is statistically significant (p-value = 0.0007) with a large effect size (η² = 0.1815). Therefore, SVM is recommended as a more optimal and consistent algorithm for automated sentiment analysis of Indonesian e-commerce reviews, while also providing a replicable methodological framework for similar future research.

Yeni Roha Mahariani; Pangki Suseno; Dwi Junianto; Nindya N. A. Brillianio

Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Era Digital 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

The rapid growth of e-commerce has intensified the need to understand transaction patterns and customer purchasing behavior as a foundation for strategic decision-making. This study aims to analyze e-commerce transaction patterns and customer purchasing behavior based on demographic characteristics and transaction timing. By utilizing e-commerce transaction data, this research seeks to provide a more comprehensive understanding of customers’ purchasing tendencies and the factors influencing their behavior. This study employs Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) as the primary method to descriptively explore data characteristics through various statistical visualizations, including histograms, bar charts, line graphs, and boxplots. The analysis conducted to identify transaction trends, the distribution of purchase values, and behavioral differences across demographic groups and specific time periods. The results indicate that e-commerce transaction patterns tend to increase during certain periods, particularly in the latter part of the observation timeframe, suggesting the influence of seasonal factors and promotional strategies. The distribution of transaction values is asymmetric, with most transactions occurring in the low to medium value range, while high-value transactions are conducted by a relatively small proportion of customers. Furthermore, variations in purchasing behavior are observed across demographic groups in terms of transaction frequency and value, despite relatively balanced transaction volumes. The findings confirm that e-commerce customer purchasing behavior is influenced by a combination of temporal factors and demographic characteristics. These results are expected to serve as a basis for e-commerce practitioners in developing more targeted marketing strategies and as a reference for future research in the field of e-commerce data analytics.

Enah Alia Sova; Rodifah Rodifah; Ai Khoerumisa; Sumyanah; Bambang Hermawan

Maeswara : Jurnal Riset Ilmu Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

MSMEs Traditional culinary MSMEs play a vital role in the Indonesian economy through job creation, income equality, and preservation of local culture. However, limited capital, raw materials, and labor, as well as unsystematic production planning, mean that MSME production decisions are still intuitive, leading to inefficiencies and suboptimal profits. A case study of MSME Sostang Tijang Bruno, a Sundanese cireng producer, shows that cireng production is still based on experience without clear calculations, resulting in a mismatch between production and demand and waste of raw materials. This study aims to optimize cireng production volume using the Graphical Linier Programming method to maximize profits by considering constraints on raw materials, working time, and market capacity. Data were obtained through observation, interviews, and documentation. The decision variables were the production volume of original chicken-filled cireng and spicy chicken-filled cireng. The analysis results showed an optimal production combination of 2.93 kg of original chicken-filled cireng and 0.53 kg of spicy chicken-filled cireng with a maximum profit of Rp499,000 per day. This method is expected to help MSMEs make more efficient and rational production decisions

Didi Didi; Dwi Gemina; Devina Damayantie; Siti Rachma; Haklima Bintang Wulandari +7 more

Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Bisnis 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

The Indonesian Civil Servants Cooperative (KPRI) plays an important role in enhancing member welfare and supporting the national economy. Nevertheless, increases in business volume and own capital do not necessarily translate into higher profitability, while the number of members an essential characteristic of cooperatives is also assumed to influence financial performance. This study aims to examine the effect of business volume and own capital on cooperative profitability, with the number of members acting as a mediating variable. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data derived from the financial statements of KPRI in Bogor City during the 2020–2024 period. Purposive sampling was applied, resulting in 12 cooperatives with a total of 60 observations. Panel data regression analysis was conducted using EViews software, and mediation effects were tested using the Sobel test. The results indicate that business volume has a positive and significant effect on cooperative profitability, whereas own capital does not show a significant influence. The number of members has a negative and significant effect on profitability. Furthermore, the Sobel test confirms that the number of members does not mediate the relationship between business volume or own capital and cooperative profitability. These findings suggest that enhancing business activities and improving the quality of member participation are more critical for increasing cooperative profitability than merely expanding capital or membership size.

Ilyas Azhari; Jihan Atsilah Syahbani; Siti Rohiyatul Jannah

Jupiter: Publikasi Ilmu Keteknikan Industri, Teknik Elektro dan Informatika 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

This study aims to examine the impact of tourism activities on environmental sustainability and the culture of the Tengger tribe in Ngadas Village, Poncokusumo District, Malang Regency. Ngadas Village is one of the traditional villages located in the Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park area and is a growing natural and cultural tourist destination. The research method used is a qualitative approach with data collection techniques through observation, in-depth interviews, and documentation studies. The results of the study show that tourism activities have a positive impact in the form of economic improvement for the community and the preservation of several cultural traditions through tourist attractions. However, there are also negative impacts such as environmental degradation due to increased waste volume and land use change, as well as the commercialization of culture, which has the potential to diminish the sacred meaning of the Tengger tribe's traditions. This study recommends the need for sustainable and participatory tourism management, involving the indigenous community in decision-making so that environmental and cultural sustainability is maintained amid the development of the tourism sector.

Fariz Zharfan Haris

Zoologi: Jurnal Ilmu Peternakan, Ilmu Perikanan, Ilmu Kedokteran Hewan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Tanaman dan Hewan Indonesia

Male reproductive performance serves as a foundational metric for predicting the reproductive quality traits of progeny. This study aimed to investigate the interaction between semen quality in Etawa Grade (PE) and Boer bucks and non-genetic factors, specifically age and season. The research utilised secondary data on fresh semen production collected from 2018 to 2022. Quality parameters evaluated included ejaculate volume and individual sperm motility. Data were obtained from the Central Java Artificial Insemination Center and analysed using the Statistical Analysis System On Demand for Academics to determine the interactive effects of age and season on fresh semen production. The results indicated that bucks in the younger age category tended to produce higher semen volumes compared to other age groups. In conclusion, there is a general interaction between age and season on the semen quality of PE and Boer bucks. The interaction observed in fresh semen volume and motility was significantly influenced by individual age differences and seasonal factors based on rainfall levels. Further research is warranted to investigate these interactions across additional macroscopic and microscopic parameters.

I Wayan Manik Mas Sri Dantya; I Wayan Sudiarsa; I Putu Kabinawa Raesa Putra; Brian Adi Sapurta; I Komang Hari Sastrawan

Repeater : Publikasi Teknik Informatika dan Jaringan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

In the rapidly evolving digital economy, the ability to anticipate transaction surges is a strategic asset for marketplace platforms to maintain operational efficiency. This research aims to build an accurate daily transaction volume forecasting system thru the implementation of an Extract, Transform, and Load (ETL) pipeline and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) predictive modeling. The dataset used is sourced from dataset_olshop.csv, which includes transaction history for the entire year of 2025. The ETL stage focused on data cleaning and handling missing values, while time series analysis began with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationarity test, which yielded a significant p-value of 0.000006. The parameter model was optimized using the auto_arima algorithm, which determined the ARIMA(2,0,0) configuration as the best model. The evaluation results of the model show fairly stable performance with a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) value of 2.002 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.704 on the test data. Research findings reveal a consistently higher purchasing pattern during the mid-month and end-of-month periods, with an average of 5.52 daily transactions, compared to the beginning of the month, which saw 5.48 transactions. The 30-day forecast results provide valuable insights for online store managers to proactively adjust inventory and logistics workforce allocation strategies. This research concludes that integrating data engineering techniques and statistical analysis can provide predictive solutions for the dynamics of the digital market.