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The architecture of consumer decision-making has completely changed due to the quick development of recommendation systems based on artificial intelligence (AI). The majority of earlier studies saw algorithms as instruments for forecasting and maximizing preexisting preferences. This study, however, makes a different claim: algorithmic curation actively shapes preferences rather than just reflecting them. This study creates and evaluates a structural model that examines the impact of algorithmic curation intensity on perceived search autonomy, identity resonance, affective evaluation, and the development of initial preferences. The model is based on identity-based consumption theory and the literature on human-AI interaction. The study's findings, which are based on survey data from Generation Z consumers and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis, demonstrate a contradictory dynamic: algorithmic curation improves identity resonance and directly influences initial preferences while simultaneously decreasing feelings of autonomy. The primary mediating mechanism that links algorithmic exposure to emotional assessment and preference creation is identified as identity resonance. In addition to introducing the concept of algorithmic consumer formation as a new conceptual framework for comprehending consumer behavior in the AI-based digital era, our findings expand the notion of bounded rationality toward algorithmically bounded agency.

The relatively high volatility of Robusta coffee prices creates uncertainty for farmers, business actors, and policymakers in making economic decisions. This study aims to analyze the price movement patterns of Robusta coffee, determine the most appropriate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and conduct short- to medium-term price forecasting for Robusta coffee. The data used consist of monthly Robusta coffee price data from January 2023 to September 2025, sourced from the World Bank Commodity Price Data. The analytical method employed is ARIMA using EViews software, beginning with stationarity testing using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, model identification through ACF and PACF, parameter estimation, and residual diagnostic testing. The results show that Robusta coffee price data are non-stationary at the level but become stationary at the first difference, indicating integration of order one I(1). Based on model identification and diagnostic testing, the ARIMA (0,1,0) model is found to be the most appropriate and satisfies the white noise assumption. Forecasting results indicate that Robusta coffee prices are projected to remain relatively stable with a moderate upward trend through December 2026. These findings are expected to serve as a reference for decision-making by farmers, business actors, and the government in responding to Robusta coffee price dynamics.

Economic forecasting is becoming increasingly important year after year, especially during crises such as the pandemic of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. Its development can be seen from the use of basic statistical models to the increasingly widespread use of machine learning technology. Economic forecasting plays an important role in helping to formulate policies and is also a reliable tool for researchers in dealing with uncertainty. Global crises, such as inflationary pressures due to the pandemic and supply chain disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have prompted increased research in this field in an effort to anticipate economic shocks and emphasize the urgency of forecasting to prepare strategies for dealing with future uncertainty. This literature review uses the Scopus database with 2561 publications from 2020 to 2025, analyzed using R Studio with a bibliometrix approach (specifically biblioshiny) and VOSviewer to map relevant thematic connections. This analysis shows that economic forecasting is greatly influenced by market uncertainty and geopolitical factors, and at the same time influences public policy formulation and financial stability. Research contributions from Indonesia are still limited, with only 40 documents, thus emphasizing the need to strengthen economic forecasting studies in Indonesia to support monetary policy and national financial stability.

Polusi udara partikulat halus (PM2,5) merupakan ancaman serius bagi kesehatan masyarakat di Kabupaten Brebes, Jawa Tengah. Faktor penyumbang utamanya adalah emisi kendaraan di jalur Pantura, aktivitas industri perikanan, serta konsentrasi tinggi selama musim kemarau (Juni–November). Tidak adanya model peramalan sub-jam yang akurat menghambat pengembangan sistem peringatan dini yang efektif. Penelitian ini mengembangkan dan mengevaluasi model deep learning berbasis Transformer untuk memprediksi konsentrasi PM2,5 dengan resolusi waktu 15 menit. Data yang digunakan berasal dari NASA GEOS-CF (band PM25_RH35_GCC) yang diakses melalui Google Earth Engine menggunakan API Python. Dataset mencakup periode 1 Januari hingga 22 November 2025, menghasilkan 7.813 observasi per jam, yang kemudian diinterpolasi linear menjadi 31.249 titik data dengan resolusi 15 menit. Arsitektur Transformer terdiri dari 3 lapis enkoder, 4 kepala perhatian multi-head, dimensi embedding 128, dimensi feed-forward 256, panjang sekuen 60 timestep, dan augmentasi fitur menggunakan rerata bergulir (*rolling mean*, jendela = 3) dan beda pertama (*first difference*). Pelatihan dilakukan dengan TensorFlow-Keras, pengoptimal Adam, penjadwal peluruhan kosinus (*cosine decay scheduler*), dan fungsi kerugian Huber. Pembagian data dilakukan secara kronologis: 70% pelatihan, 30% validasi. Evaluasi pada set uji independen (16 Agustus–21 November 2025, 9.357 observasi atau 97 hari 11 jam 15 menit) menghasilkan MAE 0,7691 µg/m³, RMSE 1,2052 µg/m³, R² 0,9945, dan *Explained Variance Score* 0,9948. Model ini mampu menggambarkan variasi diurnal dan anomali musiman secara akurat, jauh melampaui model LSTM dan GTWR konvensional. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi signifikan di bidang Teknologi Informasi melalui kerangka kerja pengolahan *big data* satelit untuk aplikasi lingkungan.

This study aims to estimate changes in the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) from 2020 to 2025 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The growth of the Islamic stock market in Indonesia has increased rapidly, driven by public awareness of investments that follow sharia principles, as well as changes in macro and microeconomic conditions, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic which has had a significant impact on the financial market. This study relies on monthly ISSI data taken from official sources and analyzed with a quantitative approach using the time series method using EViews version 13 software. Statistical analysis and stationarity tests indicate that the ISSI data exhibits an increasing trend pattern and quite high volatility, so that a differentiation process is necessary to achieve stationarity. Based on the results of model testing and the selection of optimal information criteria, the ARIMA (1,1,1) model was selected as the most appropriate to capture the autocorrelation pattern and produce accurate short-term predictions. Projections indicate a stable growth trend until the end of 2025, with an estimated index of more than 8.3 million. The findings of this study indicate that the ARIMA model is an effective tool for forecasting ISSI movements and can be a strategic consideration for investors, financial institutions, and policymakers in developing sustainable investment strategies in the Indonesian Islamic stock market.

This study aims to forecast beef prices in Palembang City and at the national level in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The data used are the monthly average beef prices for the period January 2019 to December 2024. The analysis involves stationarity tests using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), model identification through Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plots, parameter estimation with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), and residual diagnostics with the Ljung-Box and Jarque-Bera tests. The results show that beef prices at both regional levels are not stationary at the level but become stationary after the first differencing (I(1)). The best ARIMA models obtained are ARIMA(0,1,1) for Palembang City and ARIMA(1,1,0) for the national level. Both models successfully predict price fluctuations with a low error rate and show a moderate price increase trend. These findings provide practical implications for price stabilization policy making and beef-related business planning. The forecast results state that beef prices in Palembang City and nationally are predicted to tend to rise in 2025 from January to December.  

Rubber prices experience significant and prolonged fluctuations, which impact farmer incomes and management decisions. Understanding historical patterns and price predictions is considered crucial for production planning, marketing, and farmer protection policies. This study aims to identify the characteristics of rubber price time series in Lahat Regency and develop a reliable forecasting model to support short- to medium-term decision-making. This study uses secondary data on monthly average producer prices for the period January 2019–December 2023. The analysis includes the Augmented Dickey–Fuller stationarity test to determine the need for transformation, differencing, and/or logarithmic transformation when necessary, identification of autocorrelation patterns using ACF/PACF, model estimation on the processed data, and evaluation of residual diagnostics (Ljung–Box, normality test) and forecasting accuracy metrics (RMSE, MAE, MAPE, Theil). The level data shows non-stationarity and becomes stationary after the first differencing; The model on log-transformed data had significant parameters and higher explanatory power than the model on de-differenced data, with RMSE and MAPE values ​​within a reasonable range. Forecast confidence intervals widened at longer time horizons, indicating increased projection uncertainty. Conclusion: Validated forecasts can inform farmers and policymakers to manage price risk and design market interventions.

This study aims to analyze and project consumer prices of cabbage commodities at four levels: Ngawi Regency, Pacitan Regency, East Java Province, and nationally, using the additive Holt–Winters forecasting model. Monthly price data for the period January 2020–December 2024 were used to capture the dynamics of levels, trends, and seasonal patterns that affect price fluctuations. Model performance was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) indicators. The results showed differences in model accuracy between regions. East Java Province produced the best performance with the lowest MAE and RMSE values, indicating a more stable price pattern that was easier for the model to capture. In contrast, Ngawi Regency showed the highest volatility, resulting in greater forecasting errors. Pacitan Regency displayed a relatively consistent seasonal pattern with moderate accuracy, while national data showed smoother fluctuations due to the aggregation effect. Overall, the additive Holt–Winters model is effective for short-term projections in regions with low to moderate variability, but is less optimal in regions with highly volatile price dynamics.

Economic forecasting is becoming increasingly important year after year, especially during crises such as the pandemic of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. Its development can be seen from the use of basic statistical models to the increasingly widespread use of machine learning technology. Economic forecasting plays an important role in helping to formulate policies and is also a reliable tool for researchers in dealing with uncertainty. Global crises, such as inflationary pressures due to the pandemic and supply chain disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have prompted increased research in this field in an effort to anticipate economic shocks and emphasize the urgency of forecasting to prepare strategies for dealing with future uncertainty. This literature review uses the Scopus database with 2561 publications from 2020 to 2025, analyzed using R Studio with a bibliometrix approach (specifically biblioshiny) and VOSviewer to map relevant thematic connections. This analysis shows that economic forecasting is greatly influenced by market uncertainty and geopolitical factors, and at the same time influences public policy formulation and financial stability. Research contributions from Indonesia are still limited, with only 40 documents, thus emphasizing the need to strengthen economic forecasting studies in Indonesia to support monetary policy and national financial stability.

Effective management of fixed assets plays a crucial role in maintaining the reliability and transparency of a company’s financial reporting. Errors in the capitalization process can lead to misstatements in financial statements and affect investment decisions. This study aims to analyze and forecast asset capitalization trends using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The research utilizes monthly recap data of asset capitalization recorded during the Settlement to Fixed Asset process from January 2021 to August 2025. The data were processed through several stages, including stationarity testing, model identification, parameter estimation, and model accuracy evaluation. The findings indicate that the data are stationary without differencing (d = 0). From several candidate models, ARIMA(0,0,3) was identified as the best model based on the lowest AIC value of 39.76. The selected model was then applied to predict asset capitalization values for the next ten periods, resulting in forecasts ranging from 1.12 to 1.56 trillion rupiah. Model evaluation showed a MAPE of 29.01%, which implies a moderate forecasting accuracy. Consequently, the ARIMA model can be considered a suitable analytical tool for monitoring and forecasting asset capitalization quantitatively.

This study aims to analyze the role of inventory management in improving financial efficiency at CV. Sumber Jaya Putra Perkasa. The main problems faced by the company are manual inventory management, technological limitations, dependence on certain suppliers, and suboptimal demand planning, which affect distribution effectiveness and financial efficiency. This study uses a quantitative descriptive approach with data collection techniques through interviews, observation, and documentation. The analysis was conducted on the stock management process, inventory turnover, and its impact on storage costs and operational efficiency. The results show that good inventory management contributes significantly to increased financial efficiency. With proper stock planning, companies can minimize the risk of excess and shortage of goods, reduce storage costs (holding costs), and increase inventory turnover so that working capital can circulate more quickly. However, the inventory management system currently used by CV. Sumber Jaya Putra Perkasa still has limitations, especially in terms of digitization and information integration. This study recommends the implementation of a technology-based inventory management system, a multi-supplier strategy, and the application of demand forecasting methods to improve stock planning accuracy. With this strategy, it is hoped that the company can achieve more optimal financial efficiency and strengthen its competitiveness in the distribution industry.

This study aims to analyze investment efficiency in Bandung Regency from 2011 to 2024 and project it for the years 2025 to 2030. Investment efficiency is measured using the Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) based on data from Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (PMTB) at constant 2010 prices. Forecasting is performed using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The analysis results show fluctuating ICOR values, reflecting annual variations in investment efficiency. Projections for 2025–2030 indicate a potential decline in efficiency, which signals important considerations for regional development planning. The findings highlight the need for the Investment and Integrated One-Stop Service Office (DPMPTSP) to use ICOR as a key performance indicator when formulating more effective and efficient investment policies to support quality economic growth in Bandung Regency. This study recommends improving future investment policies by utilizing the ICOR indicator to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of regional investments.

This study analyzes the dynamics of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in the Indonesian banking sector by examining both internal and external factors affecting financial stability. The variables included in the research are NPL, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), lending interest rate, inflation, Household Debt to Income (HDTI), fintech lending, and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). Using annual secondary data from 2005 to 2024, sourced from the World Bank and Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the study employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) method. This method includes stationarity tests, optimal lag selection, cointegration tests, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results show that most variables demonstrate a dominant contribution from their own shocks, although interactions between variables remain significant. The IRF analysis reveals that CAR and HDTI are relatively stable and quickly return to equilibrium, while fintech lending, inflation, and NPLs show more volatile responses, making them more susceptible to external shocks. LDR and lending interest rates are sensitive in the short term but tend to stabilize over the long run. FEVD further indicates that inflation plays a significant role in driving NPL variations, while fintech lending is closely associated with CAR in the long term. The study concludes that the stability of Indonesia’s banking sector is influenced by both internal factors like CAR and LDR, as well as external factors such as inflation, fintech lending, and household debt. Thus, a coordinated approach involving monetary policy, macroprudential measures, and financial supervision is crucial to enhance the resilience of the banking sector against global and domestic economic shifts.

Information technology is a technology used to manage data, including processing, acquiring, organizing, storing, and manipulating data in various ways to produce high-quality information—namely, information that is relevant, accurate, and timely. This information is used for personal, business, and governmental purposes, serving as strategic information in decision-making. To anticipate changes in weather conditions, particularly rainfall, a valid and accurate report is needed that can be useful for the public. So far, the correlation or relationship between the factors influencing weather conditions—especially rainfall—has not been precisely determined, making it mathematically difficult to create a model that can describe the correlation among all these factors. This is where Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) come into play: to create such models and map out the existing problems purely based on the input data provided. One of the capabilities of neural networks is to make predictions based on previously learned data using the backpropagation method.

This research is a case study with the object of research at UMKM Liwut Sari The purpose of this study is to determine and explain the production planning of herbal drinks at UMKM Liwut Sari. Data collection techniques in this research are observation, interviews, and documentation while data analysis techniques use forecasting and Break Even Point (BEP).  The results of the sales forecasting analysis of red ginger herbal drink and temulawak herbal drink at Liwut Sari UMKM in January are predicted to sell 263 packs of red ginger herbal drinks and 262 packs of temulawak herbal drinks, in February red ginger herbal drinks is 271 packs and temulawak herbal drinks is 270 packs, in March red ginger herbal drinks is 279 packs and temulawak herbal drinks is 278 packs. The results of the Break Even Point (BEP) analysis show that if UMKM Liwut Sari produces 86 packs of red ginger herbal drinks or Rp 4,289,855 and 81 packs of temulawak herbal drinks or Rp 4,054,794, then UMKM Liwut Sari does not make a profit or suffers a loss because at that point the company is in a state of principal return.

This study explores employment development strategies aimed at bolstering economic growth in North Sumatra Province using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and an eighteen-year time series dataset. The variables analyzed include the Human Development Index (HDI), total population, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), and Open Unemployment Rate (OUR). The estimation results reveal dynamic interrelationships among these variables over short, medium, and long-term periods. The VAR analysis with a lag of 2 illustrates how each variable contributes to both itself and the other variables. It also shows that past variables (t-1) significantly impact current variables. Furthermore, the response function analysis identifies how a change in one variable is responded to by others across different time horizons. Stability analysis confirms that all variables maintain medium-to-long-term stability over a five-year period. The Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) highlights HDI, population, and GRDP as the most influential variables in shaping the employment system and economic development overall. The VAR model used meets the stability test criteria, making the findings a reliable basis for policy research.

The research entitled Production Planning of Tenun Ikat Petra Cilik in Kupang City aims to find out and explain the production planning of Tenun Ikat Petra Cilik in Kupang City. Data collection techniques in this study are observation, interviews, documentation and questionnaires. While data analysis techniques use forecasting and Break Event Point (BEP).The results showed that the amount of sales forecast for sarongs at Tenun Ikat Petra Cilik in 2024 was 174 sheets, in 2025 as many as 202 sheets and 2026 as many as 219 sheets. For blankets in 2024 as many as 107 pieces, in 2025 as many as 110 pieces and in 2026 as many as 113 pieces. For sashes on Tenun Ikat Petra Cilik shows that in 2024 there were 199 sheets, in 2025 there were 201 sheets and in 2026 there were 204 sheets. The results of the Break Event Point (BEP) analysis show that if Tenun Ikat Petra Cilik in Kupang City produces 101 pieces of sarong or Rp.152,000,000, for blankets producing 162 pieces or Rp. 162,857,142 and sling producing 1,380 pieces or Rp.411.940.298, then Tenun Ikat Petra Cilik will not make a profit or not suffer a loss because at that point Tenun Ikat Petra Cilik is in a state of basic return. And if the company produces below the BEP point, the company will experience a loss, and vice versa if the company produces above the BEP point, the company will experience a profit. Based on the results of the study, it is recommended that it be taken into consideration for the company in relation to making decisions on determining the number of orders and good planning for the supply of woven raw materials in order to smooth the production process in the company. And for the company, Tenun Ikat Petra Cilik needs to make a production plan or the amount of production to be produced appropriately in order to provide maximum profit. Produksi Keywords :Planning,Production    

The development of the digital ecosystem has disrupted the transportation sector. Traditional transportation businesses have shifted to online transportation. This study aims to analyze Blue Bird's strategy in facing the ride-hailing disruption in Indonesia. The research was conducted using a descriptive qualitative approach. The data was sourced from digital searches and observations. The results show that the digital transformation implemented by PT Blue Bird Tbk has improved operational efficiency and competitiveness in the highly competitive transportation market. The My Blue Bird application, with real-time tracking and cashless payment features, has streamlined the booking process and strengthened customer loyalty. The data indicates an increase in app usage and a reduction in operational costs, supporting the effectiveness of the company's digital strategy. Strategic collaboration with ride-hailing platforms has also significantly contributed to market expansion and increased fleet occupancy. The success of this strategy is reflected in the rise in booking volume and overall customer satisfaction. As a further step that has not been fully implemented, it is recommended that Blue Bird explore the application of AI-based predictive models to optimize fleet scheduling and route dynamics. The use of this technology can provide more accurate demand forecasts and support strategic decision-making in resource allocation. Additionally, the development of a customer feedback system integrated with digital analytics will allow the company to respond to consumer trends and preferences more effectively. These measures, supported by enhanced digital infrastructure and cross-sector collaboration, are expected to further boost Blue Bird's efficiency and growth in the digital disruption era.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed fundamental vulnerabilities in global supply chain systems, such as over-reliance on single suppliers and a lack of operational visibility. This has highlighted the urgent need for a new approach to risk management—one that leverages smart technologies. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a promising solution, thanks to its capabilities in predictive analytics and adaptive, data-driven decision-making in real time. This study aims to develop an AI-based predictive system framework to enhance the resilience of global supply chains in the face of post-pandemic disruptions. Using the Design Science Research (DSR) methodology, the research designs and evaluates a system that integrates algorithms such as LSTM, Random Forest, Natural Language Processing (NLP), and Reinforcement Learning. It also applies a federated learning approach to ensure data privacy among supply chain partners. The study analyzes over 12,000 data entries from diverse sources, including IoT devices, weather data, demand trends, and social media. The system's effectiveness is evaluated through a combination of quantitative methods (PLS-SEM analysis on 103 respondents) and qualitative methods (interviews with 12 industry executives). The findings show that AI-driven predictive analytics significantly improve supply chain resilience (β = 0.67; p < 0.001), with demand forecasting accuracy increasing by up to 40% and delivery times reduced by 30%. Conceptually, the study contributes by designing a resilient model that integrates real-time visibility, adaptability, and cross-organizational collaborative learning. Unlike traditional approaches focused solely on automation, this framework offers a more holistic solution, addressing key gaps in the literature. The implication is clear: AI is becoming a strategic asset in building sustainable, resilient supply chains amid ongoing global uncertainty.

This study examines the application of big data analytics on Bhinneka.com, a leading e-commerce platform in Indonesia, to tackle the increasing in complexity of online user behavior in a swiftly changing digital environment. The primary issue is too challenges in evaluating extensive, unstructured, and heterogeneous user data, which obstructs personalization, marketing efficacy, and operational decision-making. The study seeks to assess the efficacy of big data instruments, specifically Artificial Intelligence Recommendation (AIRec) and Customer Data Platform (CDP), in improving user behavior forecasting. Service customization, and data-informed strategies. This study utilizes a qualitative case study methodology, including literature review and platform observation, to synthesis the many forms of big data analytics (descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive) and their implementation at Bhinneka.com. Significant findings indicate that the integration of AIRec and CDP has augmented the platform’s capacity to predict consumer preferences, improve marketing accuracy, and optimize logistics. However, obstacles stay the same, such as disjointed data systems, data quality concerns, and internal opposition to embracing a data-driven culture. The study suggests that although big data analytics substantially enhances Bhinneka.com’s digital competitiveness, ongoing investment in data infrastructure and organizational competence is crucial to fully harness its potential and preserve a competitive advantage in Indonesia’s e-commerce market.