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This study examines the determinants of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) based on three main macroeconomic factors namely inflation, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the SBI interest rate (BI Rate) covering the period January 2020 to December 2025, in the context of post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery and global economic turmoil. A quantitative approach was employed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, with 72 monthly observations derived from secondary data sourced from official institutions including Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Classical assumption tests were applied comprising the Jarque-Bera normality test, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for multicollinearity, Breusch-Godfrey for autocorrelation, White Test for heteroscedasticity, and Ramsey RESET for model specification. Partially, inflation, exchange rate, and BI Rate each demonstrate a positive and significant effect on the JCI (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, all three variables exert a significant combined influence on the JCI, with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.4414, indicating that the model explains 44.14% of the variation in the JCI. The remaining 55.86% is attributed to other variables outside the model. Classical assumption test results reveal violations of normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity assumptions, although the model is free from multicollinearity. These findings confirm that Bank Indonesia's monetary policy has a significant and measurable impact on capital market performance. Further research is recommended using more advanced time series models such as GARCH or VECM to address violations of classical assumptions and improve estimation efficiency.

This study examines the factors influencing Indonesia’s motor vehicle exports to nine developing countries using the gravity model approach with long-term and short-term panel data. The variables analyzed include the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of partner countries, exchange rates, economic distance, and trade cooperation agreements. The data are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture short-term dynamics and long-term relationships. The long-term results show that partner countries’ GDP has a significant positive effect on Indonesia’s vehicle exports, indicating that economic growth in partner countries increases demand for Indonesian automotive products. Conversely, exchange rates and economic distance have significant negative effects, suggesting that depreciation of partner currencies and economic disparities reduce export volumes. Trade cooperation agreements do not have a significant impact in the long term. In the short term, changes in GDP continue to have a significant positive effect, while exchange rates maintain a significant negative impact on exports. Economic distance and trade agreements are not significant in the short term. The significant and negative error correction term (ECT) confirms the existence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-term equilibrium. This study highlights the importance of partner countries’ economic growth and exchange rate stability in supporting Indonesia’s vehicle exports to developing countries, as well as the need to address structural barriers to improve long-term competitiveness.

The war between India and Pakistan has had a devastating impact on the economies of both the countries directly involved and those indirectly affected. The economic impacts of this armed conflict include significant infrastructure damage, reduced production capacity, soaring inflation, rising unemployment, and reduced investment flows. This geopolitical instability has also fueled uncertainty in global financial markets, triggering a "flight to safety" phenomenon, a shift in capital and investment to countries or instruments perceived as safer, such as US government bonds or gold. For Indonesia, this situation has the potential to significantly disrupt national economic stability. One impact is a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, as investors tend to hold back or relocate their investments to more geopolitically stable countries. Furthermore, pressure on the rupiah exchange rate could increase due to global financial market volatility and a decline in international investor confidence. The conflict could also hamper Indonesia's export traffic, particularly to countries with close trade ties with India and Pakistan. Furthermore, these tensions could disrupt global supply chains, particularly for energy and food commodities, many of which pass through strategic trade routes. If the conflict drags on, the price of crude oil and other raw materials could potentially rise sharply, which in turn would increase domestic production costs. This would have a direct impact on inflation and public purchasing power. This situation further complicates the management of Indonesia's monetary and fiscal policies, which currently face significant challenges, such as the imminent maturities of large government debt and a still-widening state budget deficit. The government must take strategic steps to maintain domestic economic stability, strengthen foreign exchange reserves, and encourage export market diversification to reduce over-reliance on conflict-prone countries.

The potential war between India and Pakistan poses significant risks to the Indonesian economy, as it is expected to exacerbate uncertainty in the global financial market. Such geopolitical tensions often trigger a ‘flight to safety,’ where capital flows shift to countries considered stable, leading to reduced foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging markets like Indonesia. This scenario is likely to place additional pressure on Indonesia’s exchange rate, further destabilizing its financial position. One of the key impacts of the looming India-Pakistan war on Indonesia is its effect on monetary and fiscal management. The Indonesian government is already facing significant challenges, including managing a large amount of maturing debt and grappling with a growing budget deficit. The war would complicate these efforts, making it more difficult for the government to stabilize the economy and implement effective policies. Indonesia’s export sector will also be affected, as India and Pakistan are two of the country’s main trading partners, especially for key commodities like crude palm oil (CPO) and coal. India is Indonesia’s 4th largest export destination, accounting for approximately 9% of total exports, while Pakistan represents around 1.9%. Any disruption in trade with these countries, due to the war or political instability, could significantly hurt Indonesia’s export revenues and negatively affect industries reliant on these markets. Moreover, Indonesia is already facing challenges from the United States, which has imposed reciprocal tariffs worth 32% on Indonesian products. This trade tension, combined with the geopolitical instability from the India-Pakistan conflict, will add further strain to Indonesia’s trade balance. The combination of these factors could lead to slower economic growth, reduced investor confidence, and potentially higher inflation, as the country faces multiple external and internal economic pressures.

This study investigates the monetary transmission mechanisms influencing inflation and exchange rates across seven Southeast Asian countries (Myanmar, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) over the period 2010–2023, with special focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research addresses the problem of macroeconomic instability, particularly the volatility in inflation and currency values during crisis periods, and aims to identify the dominant monetary factors affecting these indicators. The study employs a mixed quantitative approach using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Paired Sample t-Test to analyze the short-term and long-term relationships among key variables: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment, money supply (M2), interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates. Findings reveal that GDP is the most influential factor impacting both inflation and exchange rates, followed by money supply and interest rates. The variance decomposition analysis confirms that these monetary variables significantly explain macroeconomic fluctuations in both pre- and post-pandemic contexts. The t-Test further indicates statistically significant changes in inflation and exchange rates before and after the pandemic, highlighting the disruptive effect of COVID-19 on economic stability. The results demonstrate that inflation declined significantly in most countries during the pandemic, while exchange rate behavior varied depending on economic resilience and policy responsiveness. The study concludes that maintaining macroeconomic stability requires not only monetary policy coordination but also effective public health crisis management. This research contributes to the regional policy discourse by offering empirical insights and evidence-based recommendations to strengthen economic resilience in Southeast Asia.

The objective of this study is to examine whether the macroeconomic variables Exchange Rate, Money Supply (M2), and the international stock indices Dow Jones Islamic Market (DJIM) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have an influence on the movement of Sharia stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia (Jakarta Islamic Index and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index). The analytical method used in this research is multiple regression analysis. The data utilized are monthly data spanning the period from January 2015 to December 2024. The results of the study indicate that the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) is significantly influenced by the Exchange Rate and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Specifically, both the Exchange Rate and DJIA show effects that are consistent with the hypothesis expectations. The Exchange Rate has a negative and significant effect on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII), while the DJIA has a positive and significant effect. Meanwhile, the Money Supply (M2) and the Dow Jones Islamic Market (DJIM) are not found to have a significant effect on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI), on the other hand, is significantly influenced by the Dow Jones Islamic Market (DJIM). Specifically, DJIM has a positive and significant effect on FHSI. Conversely, the Exchange Rate, Money Supply (M2), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are not found to have a significant effect on the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI).

This research is an attempt to analyze and measure the impact of structural shocks to the US dollar exchange rate on the performance indicators of the Iraqi economy during the limited period (2004 to 2022) using the Kaldor square framework, which is based on four main components (economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and trade balance). Analytical and quantitative methods were rummage-sale to reveal the countryside of the relationship between these variables, through analyzing annual data and key economic indicators, using standard economic models and applying the (SVAR) technique. The study concluded that structural shocks to the exchange rate had varying effects on the components of the Kaldor square. The results showed a strong relationship between the exchange rate, economic growth, and the trade balance, while its impact on unemployment and inflation varied depending on the time period and political and economic developments. The study recommends adopting flexible monetary and fiscal policies that contribute to reducing exchange rate volatility and enhancing macroeconomic stability, which positively impacts sustainable structural growth.Inflation

This study aims to analyze the comparison of solvency levels and claim payment abilities between two general insurance companies in Indonesia, PT Asuransi Dayin Mitra Tbk (ASDM) and PT Asuransi Jasa Tania Tbk (ASJT), considering the macroeconomic conditions in 2023. The methods used are qualitative and quantitative comparative analyses based on the audited financial statements and annual reports of both companies, as well as a review of macroeconomic data from official sources. The findings indicate that ASDM and ASJT managed to achieve positive performance despite economic challenges, with ASJT recording higher growth in premiums and net income. Both companies maintained solvency ratios above regulatory thresholds and controlled claims ratios. Business strategy adaptation, sound governance, and effective risk management contributed to these achievements. Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates were found to influence the performance of both companies, with varying levels of sensitivity depending on their market segment focus. These findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the insurance business in Indonesia and highlight opportunities and challenges that industry stakeholders need to anticipate..

In today’s global economy, accurately predicting foreign exchange rates or estimating their trends correctly is crucial for informed investment decisions. Despite the success of standalone models like ARIMA and deep learning models like LSTM, challenges persist in capturing both linear and nonlinear dynamics in highly volatile exchange rate environments. Motivated by the limitations of these individual models and the need for more robust forecasting tools, this study proposes a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model that integrates ARIMA’s strength in modeling linear trends with LSTM’s capability to capture nonlinear dependencies, using historical USD/NGN exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) spanning 2001 to 2024. The research hypothesis posits that the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model will significantly outperform standalone models in forecasting accuracy. By comparing these models against state-of-the-art approaches, the study highlights the advantages of hybridizing statistical and deep learning methods. The findings demonstrate that the hybrid model achieved the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2.216 and the highest R² of 0.998, indicating superior forecasting performance. This study fills a critical research gap by demonstrating the effectiveness of hybrid deep learning in financial time series forecasting, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and financial analysts. Future research will extend this work by incorporating the latest dataset and evaluating model robustness during the recent surge in the Naira/Dollar exchange rate from 2023 to 2024.

Power Index is a strategic indicator measuring a nation's military, economic, and geopolitical capabilities, closely tied to national defense and security. This study examines key factors such as currency exchange rates, GDP, education levels, and technology penetration in shaping the Power Index. Economic stability underpins defense development, while advanced education and digital infrastructure drive innovations in military technology and cybersecurity. Developed countries dominate defense capabilities due to robust technological infrastructures, while developing nations show potential through investments in education and technology. Beta distribution regression, with its suitability for bounded variables, was utilized to model the Power Index. The study provides insights into the interplay between economic, educational, and technological factors, supporting strategic policymaking to strengthen national defense in a dynamic global landscape.

Iraq needs to correct public finances to achieve stability and rebuild financial reserves, by adopting a program to measure and analyze the current situation and forecast macroeconomic policies to eliminate the imbalance between domestic demand and aggregate supply, which is usually manifested in the problems of the balance of payments, high inflation, and low output growth, and financial programming is an essential tool for managing policies to achieve stability and rebuild financial reserves.Analyze the current situation and forecast macroeconomic policies to address economic imbalances. However, there is a difficulty in applying the financial programming tool because of  the lack  of accurate information systems to estimate the rate of inflation, unemployment, economic growth, exchange rate, balance of payments and the general budget, in addition to irrational fiscal policy that depends on excessive expansion of government spending, with the sovereignty and control of the public sector over the macroeconomy, compared to the weak and weak role of the private sector. As a result of the policies pursued by successive governments and thus constitute weaknesses for the application of financial programming.

In alongside demonstrating how strategic cost management approaches can lower banking risks, the study sought to address the theoretical underpinnings of both banking risks and strategic cost management techniques. as well as identifying the most important measures through which banking risks to which economic units are exposed can be reduced to a minimum by helping to deal with situations in which the future cannot be predicted with certainty and that banking risks arise from the financing side. The study was applied in a sample of banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, and the focus was on commercial banks because of the exposure of these banks to a range of banking risks, the most important of which are credit risks, liquidity, exchange rate and interest rate. These banks also suffer from problems related to operational decisions such as pricing decisions. Strategic cost management techniques are a set of tools and methods that are appropriate to the needs of the modern business environment, which is concerned with cost analysis in a broad framework through its ideal position in order to improve the cost structure and achieve competitive advantage. This was the most significant finding of the research. The research discovered that strategic cost management techniques can help reduce risks and rationalize operational decisions, through which they can respond quickly to customer requirements and provide sufficient flexibility for any Changes that may occur and the delivery of products to them as quickly as possible while adhering to the standards of the modern corporate environment.

This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors consisting of inflation, rupiah exchange rate, and interest rates on stock returns of manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2021-2023. The research method uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis. The research sample consists of manufacturing companies listed on IDX during the research period, selected using purposive sampling method. The results show that among the three macroeconomic factors studied, only the rupiah exchange rate has a significant influence on the stock returns of manufacturing companies. This is due to the characteristics of the manufacturing industry which has a high dependence on imported raw materials, so that exchange rate fluctuations directly affect the company's financial performance and stock returns. Meanwhile, inflation and interest rates did not show a significant effect on stock returns of manufacturing companies during the study period.

The money supply can affect other economic variables, such as output and prices, create stability in the economy and help achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy, namely the stability of inflation and exchange rates.  The level of the exchange rate by the monetary authority must be kept stable because an unstable exchange rate, especially one that experiences a sharp depreciation, can have financial crisis implications. This research approach was associative/quantitative research. The data used in this study are secondary data taken and processed from Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) from 2013-2023 (11 years). Based on the results of regression analysis shows that the variable money supply, exchange rates, and interest rates simultaneously affect the inflation variable. Based on the results of regression analysis shows that the variable money supply has a positive and significant effect on inflation. Based on the results of regression analysis, the exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on inflation. Based on the regression analysis, the interest rate variable has no statistical effect on inflation.

This research seeks to illustrate the effects of rate of exchange volatility on Iraq's trade balance .The report examines currency rates in Iraq from 2010 to 2022, including both official and parallel values. The study addresses the trade balance, encompassing exports and imports, and investigates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on trade performance through the ARDL model. It demonstrates a direct relationship between the two variables and confirms the absence of autocorrelation issues. Formulating a series of results and recommendations.

The money supply can affect other economic variables, such as output and prices, create stability in the economy and help achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy, namely the stability of inflation and exchange rates.  The level of the exchange rate by the monetary authority must be kept stable because an unstable exchange rate, especially one that experiences a sharp depreciation, can have financial crisis implications. This research approach was associative/quantitative research. The data used in this study are secondary data taken and processed from Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) from 2013-2023 (11 years). Based on the results of regression analysis shows that the variable money supply, exchange rates, and interest rates simultaneously affect the inflation variable. Based on the results of regression analysis shows that the variable money supply has a positive and significant effect on inflation. Based on the results of regression analysis, the exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on inflation. Based on the regression analysis, the interest rate variable has no statistical effect on inflation.

Inflation is a complex economic phenomenon and has a broad impact, including on a country's import policy. When inflation occurs, domestic prices of goods and services increase, thereby increasing production and consumption costs. As a result, producers must increase product prices to maintain profit margins, which can reduce domestic demand and increase demand for imports because local prices become more expensive than imported goods. In addition, inflation also weakens the value of a country's currency, increases the demand for foreign exchange to pay for imports, and worsens the exchange rate. Countries with high inflation rates often experience trade deficits due to a surge in imports and a decline in exports, which in turn depletes foreign exchange reserves because they are needed to pay foreign debt and import goods that are needed but can no longer be exported. To overcome inflation, countries can adjust their strategies. import with more effective measures. Several steps that can be taken include: (1) Optimizing the Import List, namely prioritizing essential goods that are difficult to re-export; (2) Negotiation of Import Tariffs, with the aim of reducing import costs and increasing trade flexibility; and (3) Investment in the Local Manufacturing Sector, in order to reduce dependence on imports and increase domestic competitiveness. With this strategy, import policies can be anticipated and prepared proactively to be more effective in dealing with inflationary conditions. This abstract discusses the impact of inflation on import policies and strategies to deal with it, such as optimizing import lists, negotiating import tariffs, and investing in the local manufacturing sector.

Stock market can be fluctuate and uncontrolled depends on many internal and external factors.  The fluctuation itself can bring impact to capital market entities and the economy. This study focused for investigate the effects of inflation, interest rate, and domestic exchange rate on INFOBANK15 price stock during the 2018 – 2022 periods. This study collects data from Indonesia Stock Exchange which can be downloaded from idx.co.id. A quantitative approach to analyze the data and using SPSS as the tools. The result indicate that inflation has no effect to price stock, interest rate and exchange rates gives negative effect to stock prices.

The focus of this research is how exports, exchange rates, and inflation affect Indonesia's economic growth. For 30 secondary data, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model is used. The results showed that there was an insignificant positive relationship between exports and economic growth, and that increased export activity could have an insignificant positive effect on economic growth. In addition, the depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate increases the competitiveness of domestic products in the international market, so that the rupiah exchange rate against foreign currencies also has a significant impact on economic growth. However, the results of the study show that inflation also has a negative impact on economic growth. The economy can be disrupted by declining people's purchasing power, stunted investment, and high inflation.

This study aims to analyze the impact of globalization on corporate financial risk, focusing on exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, and country risk. The research employs a quantitative method, utilizing data from the annual financial reports of multinational companies listed on stock exchanges from 2010 to 2020. Data analysis is conducted using descriptive and inferential statistical techniques, including multiple regression to evaluate the relationship between independent variables (globalization factors such as exports, imports, and foreign direct investment) and dependent variables (levels of financial risk faced by companies). The findings indicate that globalization significantly influences these three types of financial risk. Companies involved in international trade tend to face greater exchange rate fluctuations, dynamic interest rate changes, and higher country risk compared to companies operating in domestic markets. To manage these risks, companies need to develop comprehensive risk management strategies, including the use of derivative instruments, thorough political and economic risk analysis, and investment in advanced technologies. Continuous training and fostering a strong risk culture within the organization are also critical factors in effective risk management. This study provides in-depth insights into how globalization affects corporate financial risk and offers strategic recommendations to enhance financial resilience in a global context.