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Analytics

Untung Surapati; Dadang Iskandar Mulyana; Dedi Gunawan; Anggit Purnama

International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

Early detection of a potential heart attack is a crucial step in preventing sudden death from heart disease. This research aims to develop an Internet of Things (IoT)-based health monitoring system capable of measuring vital body data in real time and predicting the likelihood of a heart attack from CSV data obtained from sensors, integrated through RapidMiner as learning data using a machine learning algorithm, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). The system was built using an ESP32 microcontroller connected to a MAX30102 sensor to measure heart rate and finger oxygen levels (SpO₂), as well as a DHT22 sensor to measure temperature and humidity. The resulting data is sent to the Blynk application to display real-time data according to its parameters. The initial prediction logic was developed using a rule-based method based on medical thresholds for four vital parameters. The data was then used to train an SVM model as a classification system to detect potential heart attacks. Test results showed that the system can identify abnormal conditions with a good level of accuracy and provide early warnings based on changes in vital parameters in real time. This system is expected to be an initial solution for personal health monitoring, especially for individuals at risk of heart disease. It can be further developed with cloud integration and automatic notifications to users' devices.

Hidayat, Nurul; Afuan, Lasmedi; Jannah , Helmi Roichatul

Journal of Computing Theories and Applications 2026 Universitas Dian Nuswantoro

Student dropout in higher education remains a persistent socioeconomic challenge, yet many predictive models reported in the literature are methodologically compromised by randomized cross-validation schemes that introduce temporal data leakage and artificially inflate predictive performance. This study proposes a longitudinal prescriptive learning analytics framework integrating three complementary methodological components: a Leave-One-Cohort-Out (LOCO) temporal validation protocol, a hybrid SMOTE-ENN class balancing strategy, and temporal velocity feature engineering derived from Learning Management System (LMS) behavioral trajectories. The framework was evaluated on a longitudinal dataset comprising 464,739 enrollment records and 77 features. Five predictive algorithms—XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression—were comparatively assessed on a strictly isolated blind holdout cohort (2022), with CatBoost emerging as the champion estimator, achieving a PR-AUC of 0.8859, a Macro F1-Score of 0.9143, and the lowest Brier Score (0.0221), thereby demonstrating superior calibration and discriminative capability under severe class imbalance (93:7 ratio). Comprehensive ablation analysis revealed that temporal velocity features function not merely as additive predictors, but as a structural prerequisite enabling Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique with Edited Nearest Neighbors (SMOTE-ENN) to generate high-quality synthetic boundary instances; removing these features reduced minority-class precision from 0.8302 to 0.6721. To operationalize predictive outputs into actionable intervention pathways, Diverse Counterfactual Explanations (DiCE) were implemented under a three-tier causal constraint architecture on 96 borderline high-risk students, generating 384 feasible intervention scenarios exclusively targeting forward-looking behavioral velocity metrics without constraint violations. Collectively, these findings advance the paradigm of prescriptive learning analytics by providing educational institutions with interpretable risk diagnostics and operationally feasible intervention guidance grounded in empirically validated behavioral and temporal dynamics.

Santo Dewatmoko; Nadia Rizky Vindiazhari; Zaenal Muttaqien

Jurnal Manajemen Riset Inovasi 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study examines customer churn prediction in subscription-based telecommunications from a digital marketing perspective using machine learning. The analysis utilizes a secondary dataset of 7,043 customer records that simulate behavioral, contractual, and financial attributes commonly found in telecom services. Three classification algorithms Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting are applied to model churn behavior. Data preprocessing includes handling missing values, encoding categorical variables, and splitting data into training and testing sets. Model performance is evaluated using accuracy, recall, and ROC-AUC, with emphasis on recall due to its importance in identifying at-risk customers. The results show that Gradient Boosting achieves the highest overall performance with an ROC-AUC of 0.84, while Logistic Regression provides relatively higher recall. Key drivers of churn include short-term contracts, higher monthly charges, and lower service engagement. However, recall remains moderate, indicating limitations in capturing complex behavioral factors. These findings suggest the need to combine predictive models with behavioral insights and highlight the importance of early customer engagement and long-term retention strategies.

Satriya Nugraha; Kiki Kristanto; Fahrizal S.Siagian

Journal of Civil Criminal Law 2026 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

The rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has brought significant changes to the criminal justice system, particularly in criminal investigations and evidentiary processes, while simultaneously raising complex legal and ethical challenges. Objective: This study aims to analyze the legal implications of the use of AI in criminal investigations, focusing on its benefits, risks, and challenges related to the admissibility of AI-based evidence, as well as the need for regulatory frameworks that ensure fairness, transparency, and accountability. Methods: This research employs a normative qualitative approach through the analysis of legal regulations, a review of legal and technological literature, and a comparative approach across jurisdictions, complemented by case studies of AI applications in law enforcement practices. Results: The findings indicate that AI enhances investigative efficiency through data analysis, crime prediction, and digital forensics; however, it also poses risks such as algorithmic bias, human rights violations, and issues concerning the reliability and transparency of evidence. Furthermore, differences across legal systems result in the absence of uniform standards for the admissibility of AI-based evidence. Therefore, adaptive regulatory frameworks grounded in the principles of fairness, transparency, and accountability are required, along with strengthened human oversight to ensure that the use of AI aligns with the principles of justice and human rights protection.

Nilsya Febrika Zebua; Nerdy Nerdy; Lidia Muliani; Dikxi Putri Mulyana; Fathur Raihan Amri +1 more

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam 2026 Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study aims to analyze the in silico profile of the compound orientin derived from the water hyacinth plant (Eichhornia crassipes) as a potential antioxidant candidate. Orientin was selected based on its chemical structure data registered in PubChem, which provides complete information regarding molecular identity, physicochemical properties, and 2D and 3D structural representations. The prediction of biological activity was conducted using PASS Online, which indicated that orientin possesses a promising likelihood of exhibiting antioxidant activity according to relevant probability values. Furthermore, the safety assessment of the compound was carried out through ProTox-II to identify potential toxicity, including toxicity class, possible hepatotoxic effects, and other predicted safety parameters. To determine its pharmacokinetic profile, pkCSM was employed to predict ADMET characteristics such as absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and additional toxicity risks. The results of these analyses show that orientin demonstrates favorable potential as an antioxidant candidate, supported by predicted pharmacological properties and relatively low toxicity levels according to in silico evaluations. Therefore, orientin has promising potential for further development in subsequent in vitro and in vivo studies.

Nerdy Nerdy; Nilsya Febrika Zebua; Andre Aditya; Dea Amelia Adiatma; Ira Eka Fahira +2 more

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam 2026 Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study aims to analyze the phytochemical profile of Sambung Nyawa (Gynura procumbens) leaves as a potential herbal candidate for mild hypertension therapy using in silico methods. Plant samples were examined to identify active compounds documented in the PubChem database. The identified compounds were further analyzed using PASS Online to predict their pharmacological activities, ProTox-II to evaluate toxicity levels, and pkCSM to assess ADMET (Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion, and Toxicity) characteristics. The findings reveal that several bioactive compounds present in Sambung Nyawa leaves demonstrate strong predicted anti-hypertensive activity accompanied by minimal toxicological risk. PASS Online analysis indicates potential mechanisms of action, including vascular receptor modulation and mild diuretic properties that may support blood pressure regulation. ProTox-II classification places most compounds in the low-toxicity category, while pkCSM predictions confirm acceptable bioavailability and favorable pharmacokinetic properties. Overall, these results provide a preliminary scientific foundation for the development of Gynura procumbens as an alternative herbal therapy for mild hypertension and support the need for further validation through in vitro and in vivo experimental studies.

Devianto, Yudo; Saragih, Rusmin; Cahyana, Yana

Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science 2026 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This research benchmarks multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms for large-scale loan default prediction using a real-world dataset of 255,000 borrower records, where default cases represent only ~9–12% of total observations. The study addresses the persistent gap in comparative analyses of ML models that balance predictive accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency for credit risk assessment. Six algorithmic families were evaluated Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Stacked Ensemble—using standardized preprocessing, hybrid imbalance handling (SMOTE, class weighting, under-sampling), and comprehensive evaluation metrics (AUC, F1, Recall, Precision, PR-AUC, and Brier Score). Empirical results show Logistic Regression achieved the highest AUC of 0.732, outperforming nonlinear models under the baseline configuration, while LightGBM attained perfect recall (1.0) but low precision (0.116), indicating over-prediction of defaults. Gradient boosting models demonstrated robust calibration (Brier ≈ 0.114–0.116) and the best computational efficiency, with LightGBM showing the fastest training and lowest memory use. CatBoost exhibited strong recall but the slowest computation, and ANN underperformed on tabular data (AUC ≈ 0.56). The Stacked Ensemble delivered balanced results with AUC = 0.664 and improved overall stability. These findings confirm that boosting-based models, particularly LightGBM and CatBoost, offer superior scalability and calibration, whereas Logistic Regression remains a valuable interpretable baseline. The study concludes that effective default prediction requires integrating rebalancing, calibration, and threshold optimization to enhance recall and operational deployment reliability in large-scale credit ecosystems.

Intan Wulandari; Lucia Litha Respati; Henny Magdalena; Tommy Trides; Ardhan Ismail

Venus: Jurnal Publikasi Rumpun Ilmu Teknik 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

One of the risk impacts of blasting activities is flyrock. The impact of flyrock can be minimized by evaluate the factors that influence flyrock such as blasting geometry. Flyrock cannot be completely eliminated but flyrock distance can be reduced to prevent damage. This study aims to determine the actual maximum flyrock distance in the field and the factors that influence the flyrock distance. This study was conducted at PT. Sims Jaya Kaltim, Paser Regency, East Kalimantan Province. This research was conducted 31 times and the average throwing distance was 79.8 meters, the actual maximum flyrock throwing distance was 134.3 meters and the minimum throw was 40.5 meters. In the flyrock throw prediction, the Richard & Moore calculation method was used with a face burst mechanism of 121.3 meters and cratering of 232.2 meters and the Ebrahim Ghasemi dimensional analysis method of 104.5 meters. From both methods, the Ebrahim Ghasemi method was found to be closest to the actual flyrock with a standard deviation of 29.49 meters and an error percentage of 2.90%. From the results of the correlation between the blasting parameters and the actual flyrock, it was found that the factors that influence the occurrence of flyrock are powder factors, so an analysis was carried out to obtain a maximum flyrock throwing distance of 90 meters so that the safe radius of the tool is 180 meters, then the maximum powder factor used is 0.14 kg/m3.

Hairul Hairul; Maulana Jauhari; Rifky Gismanyan; Irfan Hafidz Muhyiddin; Mada Aditia Wardhana

Jurnal Manuhara : Pusat Penelitian Ilmu Manajemen dan Bisnis 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study examines the integration of technology in the process of Human Resource (HR) transformation through the perspective of employee data analytics as a strategic approach to modern HR management. The primary focus of the study is to analyze the impact of the simultaneous integration of digital HR systems and organizational digital transformation on improving the efficiency of HR functions, with organizational agility positioned as a moderating variable that strengthens this relationship. In addition, the study explores the potential optimization of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies and predictive analytics methods, such as Bayesian Optimization, in predicting workforce dynamics, including employee attrition risk and competency development needs, while also bridging the analytical skills gap among HR practitioners. The research method employed is a systematic literature review of relevant scientific publications from 2021 to 2025, selecting sources that address digital HR transformation, HR analytics, and the application of AI in organizational contexts. The findings indicate that digital HR systems have a strong and significant effect on enhancing operational efficiency and the quality of HR decision-making, and this effect becomes more optimal when supported by a high level of organizational agility. Furthermore, AI and predictive analytics are proven to generate more accurate predictions and simplify technical complexity, making them easier for HR practitioners to adopt. This study concludes that the success of HR transformation requires a holistic approach that aligns the use of advanced technologies with organizational capabilities, human resource readiness, and ethical considerations to create sustainable organizational value.

Eva Andini; Lailan Sofinah Harahap; Siti Nurjanah

Saturnus: Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi 2026 Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

This study examines the development of a Crude Palm Oil (CPO) price forecasting model using an artificial neural network algorithm, specifically the backpropagation algorithm. As one of Indonesia’s main export commodities, CPO has a significant economic impact and influences the income of oil palm farmers. The CPO price data used in this study were obtained from CIF Rotterdam, covering the period from January 2019 to December 2023. The research methodology consists of several stages, including data collection, preprocessing, model design, and model implementation using Python programming. The training results of the backpropagation algorithm show an error value of 0.537829578 after 1,000 epochs, while the evaluation using Mean Squared Error (MSE) indicates an MSE of 0.022709 during the training process and 0.017604 during the testing process. The model also produces CPO price predictions for the next three months, namely 932.578 for the first month, 949.568 for the second month, and 774.855 for the third month. These findings indicate that the developed model is capable of predicting future CPO prices with adequate accuracy, which can assist companies in making better financial decisions and managing risks associated with CPO price fluctuations.

Diana Lestari; Meylissa Meylissa; Nia Hairu Novita

Jurnal ilmu Kesehatan Umum 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Kesehatan Indonesia

Aceh Tamiang Regency is an area with a high risk of annual flooding. This emergency condition often triggers a surge in environment-related diseases such as skin diseases, respiratory infections, and diarrhea. The success of managing health crises heavily depends on pharmaceutical logistics management, especially the availability of essential medicines and ease of access for refugees at evacuation points. This study aims to analyze the extent of medicine availability at community health centers and health posts, as well as to evaluate the barriers to medicine accessibility for flood victims in Aceh Tamiang Regency. This study uses a qualitative/quantitative descriptive method (choose one) with a case study approach. Primary data were collected through in-depth interviews with pharmaceutical logistics officers and surveys of flood survivors. Secondary data were obtained from the drug stock reports of the Aceh Tamiang District Health Office. Analysis was conducted on variables such as drug types, stock amounts (Buffer Stock), and distribution channels during the emergency response period. The results of the study indicate that the availability of drugs in the initial disaster phase tends to be (state the prediction, e.g., sufficient/limited). However, accessibility is often hindered by damaged road infrastructure and uneven distribution to remote posts. There is an urgent need to strengthen the logistics early warning system so that the types of medicines available match the disease patterns that emerge after floods. Although medicine stocks are generally available in central pharmacy warehouses, geographical constraints and distribution coordination are the main factors hindering accessibility. It is recommended that local governments map out alternative distribution routes and provide disaster-specific buffer stock of medicines at the sub-district level.

Wahjuningsih, Tri Pudji; Setiawan, Tri Agus; Ilyas, Agus; Subagyo, Ahmad

Dinamik 2026 Universitas Stikubank

Credit scoring is an important element in decision-making for providing financing, especially for microfinance institutions. Several methods for predicting credit scoring include Decession Tree, Gradient Boosted, Neural Network, K-NN, and Rule Induction. This study aims to improve the accuracy of financing risk prediction by efficiently integrating historical data. The Neural Network (NN) algorithm is a machine learning algorithm consisting of neurons (nodes) connected to each other in several layers (input, hidden, and output). NN is used for pattern recognition, classification, regression, and complex non-linear modeling. The NN algorithm has the advantage of working well on large and diverse data and unstructured data. However, the NN algorithm has weaknesses such as overfitting and data dependence. In this study, the integration of the Sample Bootstrapping and Weighted Principal Component Analysis (PCA) methods is proposed to improve optimal accuracy in the NN algorithm. The Sample Bootstrapping method is used to reduce the amount of training data to be processed. The Weighted PCA method is used to reduce attributes. This study uses a financing customer dataset. The results of the study show that the integration of the NN algorithm with Sample Bootstrapping and Weighted PCA resulted in an accuracy increase of 1-3% (97%-99%) compared to other algorithms. Therefore, it can be concluded that the integration of the NN algorithm with Sample Bootstrapping and Weighted PCA produces better accuracy than other algorithms

Cininta Nareswari Pratiwi; Dalizanolo Hulu

Jurnal Bisnis, Ekonomi Syariah, dan Pajak 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

The increasing intensity of business competition requires companies to maintain strong financial conditions to avoid financial distress that may disrupt business continuity. This study aims to assess the financial stability and predict the potential bankruptcy of PT Sido Muncul Tbk for the 2022–2024 period using the Altman Z-Score model. A descriptive quantitative approach was applied, utilizing secondary data obtained from annual reports published by the Indonesia Stock Exchange and the company’s official website. Five key ratios in the Altman model were used as indicators to evaluate the company’s financial position and resilience. The results show Z-Score values of 4.74 in 2022, decreasing slightly to 4.66 in 2023, and rising again to 4.79 in 2024. These scores are significantly above the safe threshold of 2.675, indicating that the company is in a healthy financial state with a very low risk of bankruptcy. Overall, PT Sido Muncul Tbk demonstrates stable financial performance, supported by a strong capital structure and consistent operational results. The Altman Z-Score model also proves to be an effective early-warning tool for identifying potential financial problems.

Risky Radison Nasution; Kurniabudi Kurniabudi; Dodo Zaenal Abidin

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Teknik 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

Hypertension is a major global health risk that requires accurate early detection, yet conventional methods struggle with complex and imbalanced health datasets. This study aims to optimize hypertension prediction using a Logistic Regression model integrated with Borderline-SMOTE to enhance recall and provide model transparency through SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations). The method utilizes the BRFSS dataset, applying Borderline-SMOTE to address class imbalance at the decision boundary and XAI techniques for global and local interpretation. The findings show that the model achieved an accuracy of 0.719, an AUC of 0.800, and a significantly improved recall of 0.756. SHAP analysis identified age, high cholesterol, and BMI as the most influential risk factors, while waterfall plots successfully clarified individual risk extremes, ranging from 1.72% to 99.43% probability. These results imply that the proposed approach provides a sensitive and transparent screening tool for public health practitioners, effectively balancing statistical efficiency with clinical accountability.

Yan Apriadi; Dodo Zaenal Abidin; Jasmir Jasmir

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Teknik 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

This study develops an interpretable machine learning model to predict the settlement status of Hajj fees in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Utilizing the XGBoost algorithm on a dataset of 4,332 prospective pilgrims from 2025, the research addresses the critical challenge of class imbalance where only 28.5% of samples are labeled "Unsettled". The baseline XGBoost model achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.7778, with a recall of 0.3482 for the minority class. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was employed to interpret model predictions, revealing that financial features specifically NILAI_VA (Virtual Account Value), JML_SETORAN (Deposit Amount), and JML_PELUNASAN (Settlement Amount) are the most significant factors influencing repayment risk, with negative SHAP values indicating increased default probability. The findings demonstrate that an interpretable XGBoost framework can provide both predictive accuracy and actionable insights for policymakers, enabling targeted interventions such as flexible payment schemes and enhanced financial monitoring for high-risk pilgrims..

Alwi Syahputra; Lailan Sofinah Harahap

Mars: Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro Dan Ilmu Komputer 2025 Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic disease that requires early detection to prevent serious complications. This study aims to implement the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm with the Backpropagation method to predict the risk of diabetes. The dataset used is the Pima Indians Diabetes Dataset, consisting of 768 medical records with 8 feature attributes. This study employs the Multi-Layer Perceptron method with an architecture of 8 input neurons, two hidden layers, and 1 output neuron. Model evaluation is conducted using a Confusion Matrix to measure accuracy levels. The test results show that the model is capable of predicting diabetes diagnosis with an accuracy rate of 76.62%. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the Backpropagation algorithm is effective as an alternative method for early detection of diabetes, although further development is needed to improve the model's sensitivity to positive cases.  

Denia Igesti Nur Mellyati; Kurniabudi Kurniabudi; Jasmir Jasmir

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Teknik 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

Student dropout remains a significant challenge for higher education institutions as it impacts academic quality, educational management efficiency, and students' success in completing their studies. Therefore, an approach that can identify students at risk of dropping out is necessary so that timely academic interventions can be made. This study aims to develop a dropout detection model using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The data used come from a publicly available higher education dataset, ensuring research reproducibility. Data preprocessing steps were carried out to improve data quality before modeling, and the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique combined with Edited Nearest Neighbors (SMOTE-ENN) was applied to address class imbalance issues. The ANN model's performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the ROC curve (ROC-AUC). The test results show that the ANN model can provide excellent predictive performance in detecting at-risk students. The application of SMOTE-ENN also proved to enhance the model’s sensitivity toward the minority class, as indicated by improvements in recall and F1-score. These findings indicate that the developed ANN model has the potential to be used as a student dropout detection system to support data-driven decision-making and strategy development within higher education institutions.

Ichwanuddin, Yazid; Maria Rosario B; Erissya Rasywir

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Teknik 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) is a pregnancy-related metabolic disorder that poses health risks to both mother and fetus if not detected early, requiring accurate prediction methods for early screening and clinical decision-making. This study applies the Random Forest algorithm to detect GDM risk using clinical data from the Pima Indian Dataset. Data preprocessing included handling missing values, standardization, feature engineering, and a 70:30 train–test split. Two models were developed: a baseline and an optimized model using GridSearchCV hyperparameter tuning, validated with 5-fold cross-validation. Performance was assessed using a classification report, confusion matrix, and ROC–AUC. Results show that the optimized model outperforms the baseline, achieving 88% accuracy, an AUC of  93%, and average recall of 81%–85%. Compared to previous studies, this approach demonstrates improved predictive performance. The findings indicate that combining Random Forest with comprehensive preprocessing, feature engineering, and model optimization is effective and feasible for developing a medical decision support system for early GDM risk screening.

Rama Fajarwanto; Reflis Reflis; Rina Hikmawati; Tri Arrizki; Desi Karlina

Kajian Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Terapan 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Rubber prices experience significant and prolonged fluctuations, which impact farmer incomes and management decisions. Understanding historical patterns and price predictions is considered crucial for production planning, marketing, and farmer protection policies. This study aims to identify the characteristics of rubber price time series in Lahat Regency and develop a reliable forecasting model to support short- to medium-term decision-making. This study uses secondary data on monthly average producer prices for the period January 2019–December 2023. The analysis includes the Augmented Dickey–Fuller stationarity test to determine the need for transformation, differencing, and/or logarithmic transformation when necessary, identification of autocorrelation patterns using ACF/PACF, model estimation on the processed data, and evaluation of residual diagnostics (Ljung–Box, normality test) and forecasting accuracy metrics (RMSE, MAE, MAPE, Theil). The level data shows non-stationarity and becomes stationary after the first differencing; The model on log-transformed data had significant parameters and higher explanatory power than the model on de-differenced data, with RMSE and MAPE values ​​within a reasonable range. Forecast confidence intervals widened at longer time horizons, indicating increased projection uncertainty. Conclusion: Validated forecasts can inform farmers and policymakers to manage price risk and design market interventions.

Ricardo Herendra; Tri Joko Prasetyo

Jurnal Ekonomi, Akuntansi, dan Perpajakan 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to compare and analyze the accuracy levels of four financial distress prediction models—Altman Z-Score, Springate, Grover, and Zmijewski—in anticipating the potential bankruptcy of companies subjected to delisting from the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). The delisting phenomenon, which is strongly linked to severe financial deterioration, provided the core motivation for identifying the most reliable predictive instrument, utilizing secondary data from the annual financial reports of delisted companies during the 2019-2023 observation period. Descriptive analysis techniques were employed to calculate the accuracy rate and Type Error for each model. The comparative results consistently indicate that the Springate Model is the most effective, consistent, and accurate model for predicting financial distress in delisted firms, achieving an accuracy rate of 89% in both the first and second years prior to delisting, while the Altman Z-Score model exhibited lower accuracy (68.75% and 62.50%). This key finding emphasizes the superiority of the Springate Model as a crucial diagnostic tool for investors and regulatory bodies in assessing corporate bankruptcy risk.