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Analytics

Maiz Wachid Anshorie; Anik Farida; Ela Nurlaela; Abdul Azis; Syaeful Bahri

Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Bisnis 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study examines the determinants of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) based on three main macroeconomic factors namely inflation, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the SBI interest rate (BI Rate) covering the period January 2020 to December 2025, in the context of post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery and global economic turmoil. A quantitative approach was employed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, with 72 monthly observations derived from secondary data sourced from official institutions including Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Classical assumption tests were applied comprising the Jarque-Bera normality test, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for multicollinearity, Breusch-Godfrey for autocorrelation, White Test for heteroscedasticity, and Ramsey RESET for model specification. Partially, inflation, exchange rate, and BI Rate each demonstrate a positive and significant effect on the JCI (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, all three variables exert a significant combined influence on the JCI, with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.4414, indicating that the model explains 44.14% of the variation in the JCI. The remaining 55.86% is attributed to other variables outside the model. Classical assumption test results reveal violations of normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity assumptions, although the model is free from multicollinearity. These findings confirm that Bank Indonesia's monetary policy has a significant and measurable impact on capital market performance. Further research is recommended using more advanced time series models such as GARCH or VECM to address violations of classical assumptions and improve estimation efficiency.

Tsani Deri Hidayat; M. Fariz Yusanri Fani; M. Aidil Aziz; M. Yusuf Bahtiar

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan Islam 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Global economic uncertainty and exchange rate fluctuations pose significant challenges to monetary stability in Indonesia, particularly in maintaining a controlled inflation rate. This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of the rupiah exchange rate to the inflation rate in Indonesia from 2015 to 2024. The method used in this study is library research by collecting, reviewing, and synthesizing data from various scientific literature, official central bank reports, and related journal articles published over the past decade. The research findings indicate that rupiah depreciation has a significant influence on rising inflation through the imported inflation channel, where currency depreciation increases the cost of raw materials for industries dependent on foreign markets. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the effectiveness of this transmission is influenced by public expectations and monetary policy taken by Bank Indonesia through adjustments to the benchmark interest rate. The implications of this study emphasize the importance of synergy between a stable exchange rate policy and controlling the supply of domestic goods to minimize the impact of external shocks on public purchasing power. The government and monetary authorities are advised to continue strengthening foreign exchange reserves and encouraging the use of local currencies in international transactions to reduce dependence on the United States dollar and maintain national price stability.

Supaino Supaino; Diena Fadhilah; Rehulina Bangun; Sally Maya Vida

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the impact of the geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran in 2026 on global macroeconomic stability and climate change dynamics. Using a qualitative approach through a Systematic Literature Review (SLR), this research synthesizes findings from various international journal articles, reports, and academic sources. The results indicate that the conflict has significantly disrupted global energy markets, leading to a sharp increase in oil and gas prices. This energy shock has triggered global inflationary pressures, reduced purchasing power, and increased economic uncertainty across both developed and developing countries. Furthermore, monetary tightening policies implemented to control inflation have created trade-offs with economic growth, increasing the risk of global recession. On the fiscal side, government interventions such as energy subsidies have helped mitigate short-term impacts but have raised concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. In addition, the energy crisis has slowed the transition toward renewable energy, thereby exacerbating climate change risks. The study highlights the interconnectedness between geopolitical conflict, macroeconomic instability, and environmental sustainability. Therefore, coordinated global policies and integrated economic strategies are essential to address these multidimensional challenges effectively.

Gratiana Manik; Laura Mairenza Efendes; Tia Putri Yundaris; Indri Melati; Wella Dwi Arianti

Konsensus : Jurnal Ilmu Pertahanan, Hukum dan Ilmu Komunikasi 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti Dan Pengajar Ilmu Sosial Indonesia

High dependence on the United States Dollar (USD) in international transactions has long been a challenge for economic stability in the Southeast Asian region, especially amidst global exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitical tensions. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of Local Currency Settlement (LCS) cooperation in supporting intra-ASEAN trade stability. The main focus of this study is how local currency mechanisms can mitigate exchange rate risks and strengthen regional economic integration as part of a de-dollarization strategy. The research method used is descriptive qualitative with a literature review approach, relying on secondary data from central bank reports, ASEAN policy documents, and relevant academic literature. The results show that the implementation of the LCS framework, particularly in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, has provided more efficient transaction alternatives by reducing double conversion costs. However, its effectiveness still faces challenges such as low awareness among business actors, limited local currency liquidity compared to the USD, and the need for broader cross-border digital payment system integration. These findings imply the need for strengthened synergy between central banks in the ASEAN region and increased literacy for the private sector so that the economic stability benefits of LCS can be optimally achieved. This strategy not only strengthens monetary sovereignty but also encourages a more resilient ASEAN economic integration against external shocks.

Arin Zahra; Chika Kamelia; Madinatul Munawaroh

Kajian Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Terapan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

The money market plays a vital role in the global financial architecture as a provider of short-term liquidity and a primary channel for monetary policy transmission. This research is motivated by the rapid transformation of financial instruments, which now encompass conventional and Sharia-compliant sectors, as well as digital innovations such as e-money and stablecoins. The purpose of this study is to examine the concept of the money market, identify the diversity of modern instruments, and analyze their strategic role in economic stability through a qualitative literature review approach. The analysis shows that the money market is highly effective in managing bank cash reserves and controlling inflation by regulating the money supply. The presence of digital instruments has been proven to accelerate liquidity flows, while Sharia schemes provide transparent and equitable investment alternatives. However, the emergence of digital assets also brings challenges of volatility that require adaptive regulation and professional skepticism from market participants. The implications of this research emphasize the importance of synergy between monetary authorities and financial technology to address global disruption. Strengthening regulations on future instruments is expected to create a more inclusive and stable financial system that can respond precisely to economic shocks.

Muslim Marpaung; Irma Suryani Lubis

International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

The rapid development of Islamic finance has encouraged central banks in dual banking systems to design monetary instruments that comply with Sharia principles while maintaining macroeconomic stability. However, the effectiveness of Islamic monetary instruments and their transmission mechanisms remain widely debated in the literature. This study aims to systematically review the empirical and conceptual literature on Islamic monetary instruments, focusing on their effectiveness, transmission channels, and macroeconomic outcomes. Using a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) approach guided by the PRISMA framework, this research synthesizes findings from major studies examining Islamic monetary policy operations, banking transmission mechanisms, and their impacts on inflation, output, and financial stability. The results reveal that the financing/credit channel and the interest–profit pass-through mechanism are the dominant transmission pathways in dual banking systems. Although Islamic banks often demonstrate relative stability during monetary shocks, policy transmission remains partly influenced by conventional interest rate benchmarks due to institutional and market structure factors. The effectiveness of Islamic monetary instruments is largely determined by the depth of Islamic money markets, the availability of liquid instruments such as central bank sukuk, and the strength of regulatory and institutional infrastructure. Furthermore, empirical evidence linking Islamic monetary instruments directly to macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation and growth remains limited. This study proposes an integrated conceptual framework linking Islamic monetary instruments, transmission channels, and macroeconomic outcomes, moderated by institutional quality, market share of Islamic banking, and market depth. The findings contribute to the literature by providing a comprehensive synthesis of existing research and offering policy insights for strengthening Islamic monetary policy frameworks in dual financial systems.

Andi Rachmat Indra; Ruslan Abdul Gani; Rahmi Hidayati; Abdul Halim

Desentralisasi : Jurnal Hukum, Kebijakan Publik, dan Pemerintahan 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

From the perspective of criminal liability theory, criminal policy, and Islamic law, sexual gratification is a form of corruption. According to positive criminal law, a person can only be held liable when three essential elements are fulfilled: an unlawful act, culpability (dolus or culpa), and the capacity for responsibility. However, in the context of public office, sexual gratification constitutes an unlawful act because it involves the acceptance of non-fina. Since the acceptance of sexual services within a power relationship usually indicates awareness of reciprocal policy gains, purpose (dolus) is frequently dominating. From the perspective of criminal policy, the restriction of sexual gratification reflects the growth of corruption as a white collar crime—a term coined by Edwin H. Sutherland—where abuse of power encompasses intangible rewards in addition to monetary transfers. According to Islamic law, sexual enjoyment constitutes two violations: it may be considered risywah (bribery) because of its transactional motive, and it may also be considered jarimah zina if it takes place outside of a legally recognized marriage. Such behaviors compromise the protection of property, ancestry, and religion through the framework of maqāṣid al-sharī‘ah developed by Abu Ishaq al-Shatibi in Al-Muwafaqat. The study comes to the conclusion that in order to guarantee accountability, protect public integrity, and promote social welfare, it is imperative to develop legal interpretation and evidential procedures.

Muhammad Anwar; Ahmad Zaki Sinulingga; Muhammad Nabil Nasution; Mahesa Marpaung; Siti Aisyah

Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

The rupiah plays a vital role as a symbol of national identity and sovereignty, but awareness among rural communities about its function and importance is often limited. In Kutalimbaru Village, the main challenges identified are low monetary literacy, which results in physical damage to money and a lack of awareness about counterfeit money. Through the Real Work Lecture (KKN) program, community service efforts were carried out with the aim of internalizing the values of “Love, Pride, Understanding (CBP) of the Rupiah.” The approach used was community-based education through interactive workshops and practical demonstrations on money care techniques and an introduction to the security features of the Rupiah. Findings in the field show a transformation in the community's attitude; from being indifferent to being more careful in handling paper money and better understanding the role of the Rupiah in economic stability. This program has succeeded in increasing the financial literacy of citizens while strengthening the spirit of nationalism through appreciation of the national currency. Keywords: community empowerment, micro businesses, tempeh products, entrepreneurship, Sialaman Village.

Andi Isra’ Amalia; Sri Astuty; Abdul Rajab; Muhammad Syafri; Irwandi Irwandi

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study investigates the factors influencing export performance in five ASEAN countries Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand during the 2014-2023 period. The topic is highly relevant given the vital role of exports in sustaining monetary stability and promoting long-term economic growth. The novelty of this research lies in its integrated approach, which simultaneously examines key export-related macroeconomic variables, namely foreign direct investment and inflation, while incorporating foreign exchange reserves as a moderating variable an approach that remains limited in existing ASEAN-focused studies. This analysis uses secondary data obtained from the World Bank and processed using panel data regression methods, including the Common Effect Model, Fixed Effect Model, and Random Effect Model, strengthened by a Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) approach. The results show that foreign direct investment and inflation significantly influence foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, foreign exchange reserves have been shown to play a strategic role in strengthening the economic resilience of ASEAN countries and can be used as a reference in formulating monetary and international trade policies.

Andi Isra’ Amalia; Sri Astuty; Abdul Rajab; Muhammad Syafri; Irwandi Irwandi

2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study investigates the factors influencing export performance in five ASEAN countries Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand during the 2014-2023 period. The topic is highly relevant given the vital role of exports in sustaining monetary stability and promoting long-term economic growth. The novelty of this research lies in its integrated approach, which simultaneously examines key export-related macroeconomic variables, namely foreign direct investment and inflation, while incorporating foreign exchange reserves as a moderating variable an approach that remains limited in existing ASEAN-focused studies. This analysis uses secondary data obtained from the World Bank and processed using panel data regression methods, including the Common Effect Model, Fixed Effect Model, and Random Effect Model, strengthened by a Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) approach. The results show that foreign direct investment and inflation significantly influence foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, foreign exchange reserves have been shown to play a strategic role in strengthening the economic resilience of ASEAN countries and can be used as a reference in formulating monetary and international trade policies.

Ade Wahyu Permana; Dairani Dairani; Syahrul Ibad

Jurnal Kajian Ilmu Sosial, Politik dan Hukum 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

Tabuh Rah in Bali is part of a Hindu religious ceremony involving animal sacrifice to maintain harmony between nature and human life. In practice, it is often accompanied by tajen (cockfighting) involving monetary or valuable bets, potentially violating Article 303 of the Indonesian Criminal Code concerning gambling. This study examines the regulation of cockfighting as a criminal offense under Article 303 and the criminal liability of perpetrators of tajen within the context of the Tabuh Rah ceremony. The research employs a normative legal method using statutory and conceptual approaches. The findings indicate that cockfighting conducted as part of the Tabuh Rah ritual is permissible based on the Batur Agung Inscription (933 Saka) and the Batuan Inscription (944 Saka) without requiring official authorization. However, cockfighting conducted outside the ritual context and involving betting constitutes gambling in violation of the Criminal Code and Law No. 7 of 1974. Perpetrators may be held criminally liable for intentionally committing an unlawful act.

Prayitno Prayitno; Irawan Irawan; Marrylinteri Istoningtyas

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Teknik 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

Transaction logs in online retail provide opportunities for data-driven customer segmentation. This study segments customers at two scopes global (all countries) and United Kingdom (UK) using Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) features derived from the Online Retail transaction dataset. After cleaning cancellations and invalid records, RFM variables are computed per customer and normalized. K-Means clustering is applied separately for global and UK data, while the number of clusters is selected via the elbow criterion and validated using internal indices. The best configuration for both scopes yields five clusters, with moderate separation quality based on the silhouette score. Cluster profiling indicates distinct groups ranging from low-frequency low-spending customers to highly frequent high-spending customers. The comparison between global and UK segmentation shows similar structural patterns, yet different proportions across segments, supporting targeted retention and value-driven marketing actions.

Dwifani Syuhra Ritonga; Sri Astuty; Abdul Rajab; Irwandi Irwandi; Muhammad Syafri

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the influence of interest rates, exchange rates, and coffee production on the value of coffee exports in South Sulawesi. The background of this study is based on the condition of South Sulawesi coffee exports which have experienced significant fluctuations in recent years despite coffee production tending to increase. This study uses a quantitative approach with time series data for the period 2009-2023 sourced from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the Directorate General of Plantations, the Food Crops, Horticulture and Plantation Service of South Sulawesi Province. Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression through the EViews 12 application with the classical assumption test as a model prerequisite. The results show that partially interest rates have a significant effect on coffee exports, while exchange rates and coffee production do not have a significant effect. Simultaneously, the three independent variables do not have a significant effect on the value of coffee exports. This finding indicates that external factors, especially interest rates, are more dominant in determining the performance of South Sulawesi coffee exports than internal factors of production and exchange rates.

Dermawan, Windy; Selsya Shafa Khairunisaa; Gilang Nur Alam

Jurnal Hukum, Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

The Local Currency Settlement (LCS) initiative is a strategic instrument to promote ASEAN regional financial integration while reducing dependence on the US dollar in trade and investment transactions. Sub-regional cooperation between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand has become an important policy arena to test the effectiveness of LCS as part of the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint 2025. This article aims to analyze the role, opportunities, and challenges of LCS implementation within the framework of ASEAN financial integration, focusing on the dynamics of cooperation between the three countries. The research uses a qualitative approach through literature review and policy analysis. Data were obtained from official central bank documents, regional cooperation agreements, international agency reports, and academic literature related to financial integration and regional monetary cooperation. The analysis was conducted descriptively and analytically to identify implementation patterns, structural barriers, and policy implications. The results of the study indicate that LCS contributes to increasing the efficiency of cross-border transactions, reducing exchange rate risk, and strengthening sub-regional ASEAN financial cooperation. However, its implementation remains limited due to differences in financial infrastructure readiness, variations in domestic regulations, and low adoption by business actors. This article emphasizes the importance of policy coordination, regulatory harmonization, and private sector involvement to optimize the role of the LCS in supporting ASEAN financial integration.

Maria Yovita R Pandin; Alif Fa’is Nurfadila; Ahmad Fauzan Aditama; Dewa Wahyu Ananta; Rio Anggara Putra +1 more

International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of global diversification, exchange rates, and interest rates on the performance of mixed mutual funds in Indonesia during the period 2020–2024. The method used is a quantitative approach with the Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) technique, using secondary data from the Financial Services Authority, Bank Indonesia, and Bareksa. The sample consists of three mixed mutual fund products that meet the criteria of portfolio data completeness, net asset value, and performance report publication. The results show that exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on mutual fund performance, indicating that exchange rate fluctuations play an important role in determining changes in portfolio returns. The global diversification variable proved to have no significant effect, illustrating that exposure to international markets has not provided stable benefits in improving the performance of mixed mutual funds. Interest rates also did not show a significant effect because the composition of mixed portfolios was able to withstand the impact of monetary policy changes. Simultaneously, the three independent variables were able to explain 66.7 percent of the variation in mixed mutual fund performance, indicating that macroeconomic dynamics and portfolio strategies have an important contribution in influencing the performance of this collective investment instrument.