Publication Search

This study examines the determinants of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) based on three main macroeconomic factors namely inflation, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the SBI interest rate (BI Rate) covering the period January 2020 to December 2025, in the context of post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery and global economic turmoil. A quantitative approach was employed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, with 72 monthly observations derived from secondary data sourced from official institutions including Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Classical assumption tests were applied comprising the Jarque-Bera normality test, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for multicollinearity, Breusch-Godfrey for autocorrelation, White Test for heteroscedasticity, and Ramsey RESET for model specification. Partially, inflation, exchange rate, and BI Rate each demonstrate a positive and significant effect on the JCI (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, all three variables exert a significant combined influence on the JCI, with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.4414, indicating that the model explains 44.14% of the variation in the JCI. The remaining 55.86% is attributed to other variables outside the model. Classical assumption test results reveal violations of normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity assumptions, although the model is free from multicollinearity. These findings confirm that Bank Indonesia's monetary policy has a significant and measurable impact on capital market performance. Further research is recommended using more advanced time series models such as GARCH or VECM to address violations of classical assumptions and improve estimation efficiency.

Global economic uncertainty and exchange rate fluctuations pose significant challenges to monetary stability in Indonesia, particularly in maintaining a controlled inflation rate. This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of the rupiah exchange rate to the inflation rate in Indonesia from 2015 to 2024. The method used in this study is library research by collecting, reviewing, and synthesizing data from various scientific literature, official central bank reports, and related journal articles published over the past decade. The research findings indicate that rupiah depreciation has a significant influence on rising inflation through the imported inflation channel, where currency depreciation increases the cost of raw materials for industries dependent on foreign markets. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the effectiveness of this transmission is influenced by public expectations and monetary policy taken by Bank Indonesia through adjustments to the benchmark interest rate. The implications of this study emphasize the importance of synergy between a stable exchange rate policy and controlling the supply of domestic goods to minimize the impact of external shocks on public purchasing power. The government and monetary authorities are advised to continue strengthening foreign exchange reserves and encouraging the use of local currencies in international transactions to reduce dependence on the United States dollar and maintain national price stability.

This study aims to analyze the impact of the geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran in 2026 on global macroeconomic stability and climate change dynamics. Using a qualitative approach through a Systematic Literature Review (SLR), this research synthesizes findings from various international journal articles, reports, and academic sources. The results indicate that the conflict has significantly disrupted global energy markets, leading to a sharp increase in oil and gas prices. This energy shock has triggered global inflationary pressures, reduced purchasing power, and increased economic uncertainty across both developed and developing countries. Furthermore, monetary tightening policies implemented to control inflation have created trade-offs with economic growth, increasing the risk of global recession. On the fiscal side, government interventions such as energy subsidies have helped mitigate short-term impacts but have raised concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. In addition, the energy crisis has slowed the transition toward renewable energy, thereby exacerbating climate change risks. The study highlights the interconnectedness between geopolitical conflict, macroeconomic instability, and environmental sustainability. Therefore, coordinated global policies and integrated economic strategies are essential to address these multidimensional challenges effectively.

The money market plays a vital role in the global financial architecture as a provider of short-term liquidity and a primary channel for monetary policy transmission. This research is motivated by the rapid transformation of financial instruments, which now encompass conventional and Sharia-compliant sectors, as well as digital innovations such as e-money and stablecoins. The purpose of this study is to examine the concept of the money market, identify the diversity of modern instruments, and analyze their strategic role in economic stability through a qualitative literature review approach. The analysis shows that the money market is highly effective in managing bank cash reserves and controlling inflation by regulating the money supply. The presence of digital instruments has been proven to accelerate liquidity flows, while Sharia schemes provide transparent and equitable investment alternatives. However, the emergence of digital assets also brings challenges of volatility that require adaptive regulation and professional skepticism from market participants. The implications of this research emphasize the importance of synergy between monetary authorities and financial technology to address global disruption. Strengthening regulations on future instruments is expected to create a more inclusive and stable financial system that can respond precisely to economic shocks.

This study investigates the factors influencing export performance in five ASEAN countries Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand during the 2014-2023 period. The topic is highly relevant given the vital role of exports in sustaining monetary stability and promoting long-term economic growth. The novelty of this research lies in its integrated approach, which simultaneously examines key export-related macroeconomic variables, namely foreign direct investment and inflation, while incorporating foreign exchange reserves as a moderating variable an approach that remains limited in existing ASEAN-focused studies. This analysis uses secondary data obtained from the World Bank and processed using panel data regression methods, including the Common Effect Model, Fixed Effect Model, and Random Effect Model, strengthened by a Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) approach. The results show that foreign direct investment and inflation significantly influence foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, foreign exchange reserves have been shown to play a strategic role in strengthening the economic resilience of ASEAN countries and can be used as a reference in formulating monetary and international trade policies.

This study aims to analyze the influence of interest rates, exchange rates, and coffee production on the value of coffee exports in South Sulawesi. The background of this study is based on the condition of South Sulawesi coffee exports which have experienced significant fluctuations in recent years despite coffee production tending to increase. This study uses a quantitative approach with time series data for the period 2009-2023 sourced from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the Directorate General of Plantations, the Food Crops, Horticulture and Plantation Service of South Sulawesi Province. Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression through the EViews 12 application with the classical assumption test as a model prerequisite. The results show that partially interest rates have a significant effect on coffee exports, while exchange rates and coffee production do not have a significant effect. Simultaneously, the three independent variables do not have a significant effect on the value of coffee exports. This finding indicates that external factors, especially interest rates, are more dominant in determining the performance of South Sulawesi coffee exports than internal factors of production and exchange rates.

This study aims to analyze the effect of global diversification, exchange rates, and interest rates on the performance of mixed mutual funds in Indonesia during the period 2020–2024. The method used is a quantitative approach with the Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) technique, using secondary data from the Financial Services Authority, Bank Indonesia, and Bareksa. The sample consists of three mixed mutual fund products that meet the criteria of portfolio data completeness, net asset value, and performance report publication. The results show that exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on mutual fund performance, indicating that exchange rate fluctuations play an important role in determining changes in portfolio returns. The global diversification variable proved to have no significant effect, illustrating that exposure to international markets has not provided stable benefits in improving the performance of mixed mutual funds. Interest rates also did not show a significant effect because the composition of mixed portfolios was able to withstand the impact of monetary policy changes. Simultaneously, the three independent variables were able to explain 66.7 percent of the variation in mixed mutual fund performance, indicating that macroeconomic dynamics and portfolio strategies have an important contribution in influencing the performance of this collective investment instrument.

Baitul Maal wat Tamwil (BMT) is an Islamic microfinance institution that plays an essential role in expanding financial access for low-income communities and supporting sustainable economic development. This article aims to analyze the role of BMT as an inclusive monetary instrument within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The study employs a library research approach with descriptive-analytical methods based on secondary data from books, academic journals, research reports, and official documents. The findings show that BMT significantly contributes to financial inclusion through real-sector-based Islamic financing, especially for micro-enterprises and low-income households. Moreover, BMT’s social function—realized through the management of zakat, infaq, and sadaqah—strengthens income redistribution, poverty alleviation, and community welfare. BMT supports several SDG targets, particularly in reducing poverty, creating decent employment, developing MSMEs, and minimizing socioeconomic inequality. However, the optimization of BMT’s role still faces challenges such as limited capital, governance constraints, digital transformation, and institutional strengthening. Therefore, synergy between BMT, the government, regulators, and the community is needed to enhance BMT’s contribution as an inclusive, sustainable, and Sharia-compliant economic development agent.

Economic development strategies play a crucial role in achieving sustainable growth through increased national productivity and equitable welfare distribution. The stability of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, exchange rates, and gross domestic product growth reflects the effectiveness of government development policies. This study aims to analyze the relationship between economic development strategies and macroeconomic equilibrium in Indonesia by examining the interconnection between the product market and the money market. The research adopts a qualitative approach using literature studies derived from scholarly journals, academic articles, and economic publications obtained from Google Scholar and other credible sources. The findings indicate that maintaining balance between the product market and the money market contributes significantly to national economic stability. A well-coordinated synergy between fiscal and monetary policies is essential to preserve macroeconomic stability and ensure that economic development progresses inclusively and sustainably amid global challenges.

This study analyzes the mechanism of money creation in Islamic financial institutions by highlighting its relationship to the principle of prudence and the intermediation function. The research background is based on the growth of Indonesia's sharia capital market which by 2025 will reach a capitalization of IDR 5,060 trillion, but still faces conceptual challenges regarding how money is created according to the principles of maqashid al-shariah. The method used is Systematic Literature Review (SLR) with PRISMA guidance on 38 relevant scientific articles. The results of the study show that money creation in the sharia system only occurs through real asset-based economic activities, in contrast to the conventional system that relies on credit and interest expansion. The intermediation function is carried out through partnerships that prioritize proportional sharing of risk and profit, while the prudential principle ensures that monetary expansion remains under control. In addition, research has found that sharia contracts such as murabahah, mudarabah, and musharakah play a role in encouraging productive money circulation while suppressing speculative activities. This study concludes that the integration between the moral and economic dimensions forms a just, stable, and sustainable Islamic monetary paradigm. These findings make a conceptual contribution to strengthening Islamic financial policy in Indonesia, especially in formulating a monetary regulatory framework that is in line with the principles of distributive justice, transparency, and protection of the stability of the national financial system.

Inflation, unemployment, and deflation are three fundamental macroeconomic phenomena that are closely interconnected in influencing a nation’s economic stability. These variables illustrate the equilibrium between production capacity, consumption behavior, and government intervention in achieving sustainable economic growth. The main purpose of this study is to explore the interrelationship between inflation, unemployment, and deflation, and to assess their implications for Indonesia’s economic stability. This research applies a qualitative descriptive method, employing literature reviews, document analysis, and secondary data evaluation derived from credible institutions such as the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and the Ministry of Finance. The results suggest that a moderate level of inflation can positively stimulate economic expansion through increased consumption and investment activities. In contrast, excessive inflation tends to erode consumer purchasing power and potentially elevate unemployment rates. Meanwhile, prolonged deflationary conditions may lead to a decline in product prices, reduced business profitability, and slower economic momentum. The interaction among these three factors is complex and dynamic, necessitating a coordinated balance between fiscal and monetary policies to safeguard overall economic stability. This study concludes that effective inflation control, job creation, and deflation prevention are critical elements in strengthening Indonesia’s long-term economic resilience.

This study analyzes the mechanism of money creation in Islamic financial institutions by examining its relationship with prudential principles and financial intermediation. The research is motivated by the growth of Indonesia’s Islamic capital market, which reached a capitalization of IDR 5,060 trillion in 2025, yet conceptual challenges remain regarding money creation in line with maqashid al-shariah. The study employs a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) using the PRISMA framework, reviewing 38 relevant academic articles. Findings indicate that money creation in Islamic finance occurs only through real-asset-based activities, differing from the conventional system that relies on credit expansion and interest. Intermediation functions are carried out through partnerships emphasizing fair risk and profit sharing, while the prudential principle ensures controlled monetary expansion. The study concludes that the integration of moral and economic dimensions establishes a fair, stable, and sustainable Islamic monetary paradigm and contributes conceptually to strengthening Islamic financial policy in Indonesia.

Economic forecasting is becoming increasingly important year after year, especially during crises such as the pandemic of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. Its development can be seen from the use of basic statistical models to the increasingly widespread use of machine learning technology. Economic forecasting plays an important role in helping to formulate policies and is also a reliable tool for researchers in dealing with uncertainty. Global crises, such as inflationary pressures due to the pandemic and supply chain disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have prompted increased research in this field in an effort to anticipate economic shocks and emphasize the urgency of forecasting to prepare strategies for dealing with future uncertainty. This literature review uses the Scopus database with 2561 publications from 2020 to 2025, analyzed using R Studio with a bibliometrix approach (specifically biblioshiny) and VOSviewer to map relevant thematic connections. This analysis shows that economic forecasting is greatly influenced by market uncertainty and geopolitical factors, and at the same time influences public policy formulation and financial stability. Research contributions from Indonesia are still limited, with only 40 documents, thus emphasizing the need to strengthen economic forecasting studies in Indonesia to support monetary policy and national financial stability.

Indonesia's tax ratio remains below the 15 percent threshold recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reflecting a significant gap in tax revenue collection. This low ratio may indicate the presence of aggressive tax planning strategies, including tax avoidance practices, particularly among multinational enterprises. This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between multinationality, transfer pricing aggressiveness, and the use of tax havens on tax avoidance. The research focuses on manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2019–2023. A total of 64 companies were selected as samples through purposive sampling based on specific criteria, including the availability of relevant financial data and disclosure of international operations. The variables analyzed include the degree of multinationality, transfer pricing aggressiveness as proxied by related party transactions, and involvement with tax haven jurisdictions. The dependent variable, tax avoidance, is measured using the effective tax rate (ETR) approach. Data were processed and analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis with the aid of STATA version 17. The findings of the study reveal that multinationality and transfer pricing aggressiveness do not have a significant relationship with tax avoidance. In contrast, the use of tax haven countries is positively associated with tax avoidance, suggesting that firms utilizing tax havens are more likely to engage in practices that reduce their tax liabilities. These results have implications for tax authorities in identifying and addressing high-risk corporate behaviors related to offshore financial structures. The study contributes to the literature on international taxation by providing empirical evidence from a developing country context.

This study analyzes the dynamics of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in the Indonesian banking sector by examining both internal and external factors affecting financial stability. The variables included in the research are NPL, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), lending interest rate, inflation, Household Debt to Income (HDTI), fintech lending, and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). Using annual secondary data from 2005 to 2024, sourced from the World Bank and Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the study employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) method. This method includes stationarity tests, optimal lag selection, cointegration tests, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results show that most variables demonstrate a dominant contribution from their own shocks, although interactions between variables remain significant. The IRF analysis reveals that CAR and HDTI are relatively stable and quickly return to equilibrium, while fintech lending, inflation, and NPLs show more volatile responses, making them more susceptible to external shocks. LDR and lending interest rates are sensitive in the short term but tend to stabilize over the long run. FEVD further indicates that inflation plays a significant role in driving NPL variations, while fintech lending is closely associated with CAR in the long term. The study concludes that the stability of Indonesia’s banking sector is influenced by both internal factors like CAR and LDR, as well as external factors such as inflation, fintech lending, and household debt. Thus, a coordinated approach involving monetary policy, macroprudential measures, and financial supervision is crucial to enhance the resilience of the banking sector against global and domestic economic shifts.

The digital economy has significantly transformed economic growth by introducing innovations in payment systems and financial services. The modernization of payment instruments through monetary policy has enhanced the ability to control inflation and ensure financial system stability. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy and the utilization of the digital economy in maintaining financial stability in Indonesia. Using time series data from 2010 to 2024 obtained from the World Bank, this research applies the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method to examine both short-term and long-term relationships among variables, including e-money, money supply, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and credit card usage. The results show that e-money has a significant reciprocal influence on the money supply, while inflation is also affected by e-money and interest rates. The impulse response function demonstrates that the interactions among these variables tend to converge towards equilibrium over time. Variance decomposition analysis indicates that in the short term, e-money primarily drives financial stability, whereas in the medium and long term, the money supply plays a dominant role. Overall, the findings suggest that monetary policy, supported by digital economic systems, effectively enhances financial system stability in Indonesia. This research contributes to understanding the dual effect of digital payment innovations and provides recommendations for policymakers to strengthen financial inclusion, economic resilience, and macro-financial stability in the digital era.

This study aims to analyze the influence of the money supply (M2), the BI Rate, and the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for bank credit in Indonesia. Credit demand is an important indicator in describing economic activity and financial system stability. This study uses monthly secondary data from January 2017 to December 2023. The analysis method used is Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), which allows for quantitative estimation of the linear relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The results show that the money supply (M2) has a positive and significant effect on credit demand. This suggests that increased liquidity in the economy encourages increased lending activity by the household and corporate sectors. Conversely, the BI Rate shows a negative and significant effect on credit demand, indicating that an increase in the benchmark interest rate has reduced public interest in accessing financing through banks. This finding is in line with conventional monetary theory, which states that interest rates play a crucial role in controlling aggregate demand, including credit demand. The dummy variable for the COVID-19 pandemic shows a negative but insignificant effect on credit demand. This implies that although the pandemic has had a broad social and economic impact, its impact on credit demand is relatively small when monetary variables such as M2 and the BI Rate are taken into account. Overall, the research findings confirm that monetary policy instruments, particularly controlling the money supply and interest rates, play a significant role in influencing the dynamics of credit demand in Indonesia. Meanwhile, external shocks such as the pandemic tend to be more effectively responded to through medium- and long-term fiscal and structural policies.

This research aims to systematically analyze the causes, impacts, and strategies for addressing economic recessions through the Systematic Literature Review (SLR) method. Using the PRISMA guidelines, this study identifies and synthesizes scientific literature from 2020 to 2025 that discusses economic recessions in both global and national contexts. The study results show that the economic recession is triggered by various factors such as high inflation, energy crises, global pandemics, and geopolitical tensions. The impact extends to the labor sector, the business world, and the social conditions of society, particularly on MSMEs and vulnerable groups. Effective strategies for facing a recession include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, strengthening the domestic economy, as well as technology-based innovation and multisector collaboration. These findings provide a conceptual foundation for formulating adaptive economic policies in facing future economic crises.

This study aims to analyze the impact of monetary policy on income inequality in Indonesia over a certain period of time. Monetary policy implemented by Bank Indonesia plays an important role in maintaining macroeconomic stability through instruments such as interest rates, inflation, and the amount of money in circulation. However, the implementation of this policy also has an impact on the distribution of community income. This study uses a quantitative approach with secondary data in the form of time series analyzed using econometric regression methods to measure the effect of monetary policy variables on the income inequality index (Gini Ratio). The results of the study show that variables such as the benchmark interest rate and inflation have a significant relationship to income inequality. When inflation increases, the purchasing power of the lower middle class decreases more sharply than the upper class, thus widening the gap in inequality. Conversely, controlling inflation through appropriate interest rates can help reduce economic disparities. This study provides important meaning for policy makers to pay more attention to the distribution aspect in determining monetary policy so that economic growth can be more inclusive and equitable.

This study examines the impact of rising commodity prices on household expenditure patterns from the perspective of conventional economic literature. The review method is used to trace and synthesize the findings of studies published nationally in the last five years. The main objective is to analyze how inflationary pressures on basic necessities such as food, fuel, and housing affect expenditure shifts. The review reveals that rising prices of basic products cause families to reduce discretionary spending, allocate budgets, and occupy lower welfare levels. This study contributes to policy recommendations by identifying the most important expenditure factors and recommending targeted social protection. This conceptual article promotes the role of fiscal and monetary stability in fostering household purchasing power in developing countries such as Indonesia. The impact on the economic bottom line is considered in great depth, strengthening the role of price controls, subsidies, and income redistribution activities..