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Latif, Tya Maulia; Sudiyanto; Cumdari

Jurnal Komunikasi Pendidikan 2026 Universitas Veteran Bangun Nusantara

Oral communication is a core competency in 21st-century education; however, instructional materials in elementary schools tend to emphasize reading and writing rather than structured speaking practice. This gap highlights the need for innovative learning resources that explicitly foster students’ oral communication skills. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a Project-Based Learning (PjBL) module designed to enhance the oral communication skills of fourth-grade elementary school students. The research employed a Research and Development (R&D) approach using the ADDIE model, encompassing analysis, design, development, implementation, and evaluation stages. The participants were 30 fourth-grade students, and the developed module was validated by three experts in material, media, and language. Data were collected through validation sheets, teacher and student response questionnaires, and pretest–posttest performance assessments.The expert validation results indicated high feasibility, with scores of 95% (material), 94% (media), and 96% (language), yielding an overall average of 95%. Teacher and student responses demonstrated strong practicality (92% and 88%, respectively; average 90%). The effectiveness test revealed a significant improvement in students’ oral communication performance, with mean scores increasing from 67 (pretest) to 86 (posttest), resulting in an N-Gain of 0.65, categorized as moderately high effectiveness. These findings suggest that the developed PjBL module is feasible, practical, and effective in improving elementary students’ oral communication skills. The study contributes to the field of communication-oriented instructional design by demonstrating how structured project-based modules, supported by simple digital enhancements such as QR-linked instructional videos, can systematically integrate speaking practice into Indonesian language learning at the primary level.

Rahmiyanita Hakim

Public Service And Governance Journal 2026 Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Semarang

Gender based violence against women and children in Lampung Province represents a multidimensional issue that poses serious challenges to human development and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although various regulations and programs have been implemented such as Gender Mainstreaming (PUG), Gender Responsive Budgeting (ARG), and local innovations like TAPIS Village and space together with Indonesia (RBI) their implementation remains largely sectoral and lacks systemic coordination. This policy paper employs a descriptive qualitative approach combined with public policy analysis to identify the root cause, namely the absence of an integrated policy framework that ensures cross-sectoral synergy in addressing gender based violence. Data were collected through interviews with key stakeholders and document studies of regional and national planning instruments, including the RPJMD, RENSTRA, and relevant regulations. The analysis reveals that weak inter-agency coordination, limited use of gender-disaggregated data, low human resource capacity, and the absence of an incentive sanction mechanism are the main obstacles to effective policy implementation. Three policy alternatives were formulated: the development of a gender responsive complaint platform for violence against women and children, the integration of gender-disaggregated data systems, and the adoption of a reward punishment system for government agencies. Based on Dunn’s six evaluation criteria, the establishment of a gender-responsive complaint platform is considered the most effective and is recommended as a strategic solution. This policy is expected to strengthen institutional synergy, enhance intervention effectiveness, and foster an inclusive and sustainable protection system for women and children in Lampung Province.

Oggie Recksadithia; Ali Fathurohman; Dany Prio Hutomo; Andi Rahman H; Asep Agung +3 more

Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat 2026 Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Rapid advances in digital technology bring various benefits and risks, including the threat of cybercrime, which can particularly affect Generation Alpha. The purpose of this seminar was to raise awareness and understanding among students at SMK Bina Patriot of the importance of protecting personal data on digital platforms. The seminar was attended by 62 participants who are active internet users in their daily lives. The seminar was conducted interactively through lectures, case studies, and training on steps to protect personal data, such as creating secure passwords and managing privacy on social media. The evaluation of the results showed a significant increase in participants' understanding, reaching an average of 97%. It is hoped that this will become a strong foundation of digital literacy for the younger generation in facing the challenges of the cyber world wisely and safely. This increased understanding is expected to be a strong foundation for Bina Patriot Vocational School students to develop their digital literacy, which in turn will help them to be able to face the challenges of the digital world wisely, safely, and responsibly.

Nur Rohim

Jurnal Miftahul Ilmi: Jurnal Pendidikan Agama Islam 2026 STIKes Ibnu Sina Ajibarang

This study discusses the implementation of the demonstration method in Aqidah Akhlak learning at MA Al Muttaqin with the aim of describing the implementation process and identifying the perspectives and obstacles experienced by teachers and students. The demonstration method was selected because it is considered capable of instilling the values of faith and morality in a concrete and applicable manner, enabling students not only to understand the material theoretically but also to practice it in their daily lives. This research employed a descriptive qualitative approach with data collection techniques including classroom observations, in-depth interviews with teachers, the school principal, and students, as well as supporting documentation such as lesson plans and activity photographs. The collected data were analyzed through data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion drawing, and their validity was ensured through triangulation techniques. The findings indicate that the demonstration method was implemented in a planned manner through stages of preparation, implementation, and simple evaluation. Teachers actively demonstrated the learning material, while students were directly involved through practical activities and discussions. The method proved effective in enhancing students’ understanding, practical skills, and the development of Islamic attitudes and behaviors. Despite challenges such as limited time, large class sizes, and inadequate facilities, the demonstration method shows significant potential to improve the quality of Aqidah Akhlak learning when managed optimally.

Utama, Agus Hadi; Qomario

Jurnal Komunikasi Pendidikan 2026 Universitas Veteran Bangun Nusantara

This Research and Development (R&D) study aimed to develop a project-based learning (PjBL) hyper-content e-module to support students’ Self-Regulated Learning (SRL) in higher education. Utilizing the ADDIE model (Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation, and Evaluation), the research addressed the need for innovative digital resources in the Learning Resource Center Management Course at Educational Technology Study Program Lambung Mangkurat University. Unlike previous studies that focused on isolated variables, this research integrates development, PjBL implementation, and SRL impact analysis. The hyper-content e-module incorporates multimodal features, including audio, video, infographics, and QR codes, to facilitate independent exploration. Validation by experts yielded high feasibility scores: 89% from material experts, 87% from media experts, and 88% from instructional design experts. Through qualitative content analysis conducted during the analysis and evaluation phase, the results confirmed that the PjBL-integrated e-module effectively improved students' learning independence by providing structured, project-oriented digital pathways. The results confirm that the e-module is a feasible and effective tool for modernizing instructional delivery. This study contributes an innovative framework for digital resource management and provides a foundation for future applied research in enhancing educational quality through self-regulated, technology-enhanced learning environments.

Irmade, Oka; Yetty Isna Wahyuniseptiana; Singgih Subiyantoro

Jurnal Komunikasi Pendidikan 2026 Universitas Veteran Bangun Nusantara

Instilling local wisdom values in early childhood is crucial for strengthening cultural identity and contextual learning. Learning media based on local wisdom needs to be developed and its effectiveness evaluated in early childhood education. This study aims to evaluate the quality of local wisdom-based instructional media for early childhood education across five aspects: systematics, language, substance, graphics, and usefulness. A descriptive quantitative survey was conducted with 100 early childhood teachers in Surakarta. The instrument was a validated questionnaire using a four-point rating scale. Reliability testing confirmed internal consistency, and ethical protocols (informed consent, anonymity) were observed. The research results show that, Findings reveal that systematics and usefulness scored highest, showing that the media is well-structured and supportive for teaching practice. In contrast, the substance and graphic aspects scored lower, indicating limited content depth and visual quality. Divergent views were noted on the use of foreign terms. Local wisdom-based instructional media is highly relevant and useful, but improvements are required in substance integration and visual design. This study contributes novelty by providing a comprehensive evaluation framework for media grounded in local culture. Practical implications highlight the importance of contextualizing media development for teachers, while future research should examine direct impacts on children’s learning outcomes.

Sonia Novita Sari; Sri Murtini; Nova Isabella Mariance Br Napitupulu; Leni Oktafianti; Kezia S.A. Rajagukguk +2 more

Ekspresi : Publikasi Kegiatan Pengabdian Indonesia 2026 Asosiasi Seni Desain dan Komunikasi Visual Indonesia

The Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is primarily caused by pregnancy complications that are actually preventable through early detection; however, maternal understanding of the Maternal and Child Health (MCH) Handbook remains very low. This community service aims to empower pregnant women at Sarfina Primary Clinic, Medan, by enhancing their MCH Handbook literacy. The implementation utilized a Community-Based Participatory Action (CBPA) approach conducted over four weeks, involving 30 pregnant women. The activity stages included a pre-test, interactive education, self-assessment simulations, and a post-test. Evaluation results indicated a significant surge in health literacy; pregnant women's knowledge in the "Good" category drastically increased from 13.3% to 86.7%, while the "Poor" knowledge category was successfully eliminated from 50% to 0%. In conclusion, this educational and simulation intervention proved highly effective in transforming pregnant women's behavior, making them proactive individuals in the early detection of pregnancy danger signs which is expected to reduce the risk of pregnancy complications and reduce maternal mortality rates.

Frendy Rumambi; Didik Dwi Prasetya; Triyanna Widiyaningtyas; Abdul Karim

Systematic Literature Review Journal 2026 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

The application of Large Language Models (LLM) in public services encourages government agencies to adopt Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG)-based chatbots as interfaces for regulatory knowledge and official documents. Although RAG is designed to increase the supportability of answers to authoritative sources, various studies show that this system is still vulnerable to hallucinations, which have the potential to reduce public trust and pose legal risks. This article presents a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) on the use of RAG in government chatbots with a focus on the definition, mitigation strategies, and evaluation of groundedness. The literature search was conducted in the period 2021–2025 through the SpringerLink, Scopus, and Taylor & Francis databases, resulting in 7,947 articles filtered using the PRISMA framework to obtain 100 articles Q1–Q2. Based on eight research questions, this study maps publication trends, document domains, RAG architecture, retrieval strategies, definitions of groundedness, and evaluation metrics used. The SLR results indicate conceptual fragmentation in the definition and measurement of groundedness, with the dominance of text-similarity-based metrics that are inadequate for regulatory contexts. As a conceptual contribution, this article formulates the Semantic Alignment Score (SAS) as a groundedness metric based on semantic alignment, evidence coverage, and entailment relationships, positioned to support the evaluation and auditing of government document chatbots.

Muh Yahya Nur Fuad; Didik Andriawan

Al-Tarbiyah: Jurnal Ilmu Pendidikan Islam 2026 STAI YPIQ BAUBAU, SULAWESI TENGGARA

This study discusses the implementation of the Yanbu'a Method at Pondok Pesantren Tanwirul Qulub. The education sector today faces various changes influenced by the rapid advancement of knowledge, technology, and the impact of globalization, which also affects religious education, particularly in the teaching of the Qur'an. One of the main obstacles in Qur'anic teaching is the use of methods that do not align with the tajwid or makhorijul huruf as taught by Prophet Muhammad SAW. This can lead to critical errors in reading the Qur'an. Therefore, this study aims to explore the challenges that arise in the process of teaching the Qur'an using the Yanbu'a Method at Pondok Pesantren Tanwirul Qulub, which is applied by KH. Agus Musta'in Ilyas. This research uses a qualitative approach based on Max Weber's Verstehen theory. The results show that the obstacles in implementing the Yanbu'a Method include a lack of coordination among teachers, significant differences in students' abilities, low student discipline in muroja'ah, and students' activities outside Qur'anic learning hours. To optimize the implementation of this method, it is recommended to provide teacher training and workshops, group students based on their abilities, strengthen evaluation and monitoring, establish consistent learning schedules, and increase student motivation.

Muh Yahya Nur Fuad; Moh. Turmudzi; Didik Andriawan

Al-Tarbiyah: Jurnal Ilmu Pendidikan Islam 2026 STAI YPIQ BAUBAU, SULAWESI TENGGARA

This research is framed in the topic of the application of the Yanbu'a Method in Islamic Boarding Schools. The world of education is currently faced with various changes in aspects of life in society. This is due to the rapid advancement of knowledge and technology, as well as the impact of globalization that is occurring in the world. This has an impact on religious education, especially in the teaching of the Qur'an. Not a few Qur'an teachers teach how to read the Qur'an not in accordance with the tajwid or makhorijul huruf that has been taught by the Prophet Muhammad. In addition, there is one of the most prominent obstacles in the implementation of Qur'an reading education, namely in terms of the use of Qur'an teaching methods. This is very urgent to be studied because the application of inappropriate Qur'an teaching methods can result in fatal errors in the way of reading the Qur'an. research, guided by Max Weber's qualitative approach to Verstehen theory, concluded that the obstacles encountered in implementing the Yanbu'a Method were a lack of coordination between teachers, significant differences in student abilities, low student discipline in muroja'ah (religious study), and students' busy schedules outside of Quranic study hours. Optimization of the Yanbu'a Method at Tanwirul Qulub Islamic Boarding School includes teacher training and education, grouping students based on ability, strengthening evaluation and monitoring, providing learning facilities and media, consistent lesson scheduling, and increasing student motivation.

Linda Nirmalasari; Trenda Aktiva Oktariyanda; Meirinawati Meirinawati; Eva Hany Fanida

Perspektif Administrasi Publik dan hukum 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti Dan Pengajar Ilmu Sosial Indonesia

The Mapan Satria Program represents the Kediri City Government's commitment, through the Department of Transportation, to enhance public service quality in the bus transportation sector under the name Bus Satria; however, operational obstacles such as schedule unreliability and insufficient public information persist. This study aims to describe the effectiveness of the Mapan Satria Program managed by the Kediri City Department of Transportation commencing in 2023. Program effectiveness was analyzed based on Annas's (2017) seven indicators using a qualitative method with data collection through observation, interviews, and documentation. The analysis indicates that the Mapan Satria Program (Moda Angkutan Pelayanan Aman dan Nyaman Sarana Transportasi Kediri Bahagia) has not yet operated effectively. While aspects such as timeliness, work mechanisms, inter-agency cooperation, fund disbursement, and monitoring and evaluation have been implemented in accordance with regulations, others remain suboptimal, including limited human resources, service deviations, inadequate information updates, and low public utilization. Therefore, the author recommends optimizing the program by expanding socialization to the wider community, providing clear schedule information at bus stops to facilitate passengers, strengthening the operational monitoring and evaluation system, and imposing strict sanctions for deviations.

Dwi Sloria Suharti; Gufron Gufron; Tatu Zakiyatun Nufus; Ade Mahmud; Hatami Hatami

Jurnal Nusantara Berbakti 2026 Universitas Kristen Indonesia Toraja

This community service program was conducted at Madrasah Aliyah/Pondok Pesantren Al-Mansyuriyah, Tangerang, to provide students with structured experience in English news writing and digital publication through blogs. The program responded to three main partner needs: limited experience in structured English news writing, limited use of blogs for publication, and the need to strengthen students’ digital literacy and writer identity. The activity was designed as a participatory and practice-based training program through three workshops: EFL News Writing, Blogging for EFL News Writing, and English Journal Writing. The evaluation used a pre-survey, a post-survey, observation, and documentation of student blog posts. The pre-survey involved 46 students; 31 students (67.4%) had written English news articles, but 42 students (91.3%) had never used blogs or written blog posts. The post-survey involved 45 students; all respondents (100%) reported that they understood ethical blog publication, and 42 students (93.3%) reported that they could use blogs, images, links, and videos to support their writing. The program produced six student blog posts on pesantren activities, National Santri Day, Teacher’s Day, new student admission, and literacy events. These findings indicate that blog-based genre pedagogy can provide an authentic medium for introducing EFL news writing, digital publication, ethical awareness, and students’ emerging writer identity. Further mentoring is needed to evaluate and improve the linguistic accuracy, news structure, and multimodal quality of students’ writing.

Kartika Dian Rahmawati; Dafid Irawan; Riman Riman

Konstruksi: Publikasi Ilmu Teknik, Perencanaan Tata Ruang dan Teknik Sipil 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Teknik Indonesia

This research looks into how site managers in construction projects in Malang City manage and improve their use of human resources. The research is driven by the significance of effective human resource management in ensuring project success and the lack of studies focusing on the operational strategies of site managers within a local context. This study uses a quantitative method that is both descriptive and analytical. It involves giving out a survey to 40 people, including site managers, contractors, and foremen. The independent variables include leadership and supervisory style, human resource planning and workforce allocation, training and competency development, team communication and coordination, performance monitoring and evaluation, as well as motivation and welfare. The dependent variable is the degree to which human resource management is optimized. The results of validity and reliability tests indicate that all research instruments are valid and reliable. Multiple linear regression analysis shows that leadership and supervisory style, along with human resource planning and workforce allocation, have a significant partial effect on improving HRM practices. Other variables have a positive but statistically insignificant partial effect on the estate. Overall, the management of human resources in construction projects in Malang City is considered to be fairly good. This study confirms that leadership and workforce planning are the main strategic factors for site managers in improving the effectiveness of human resource management in construction projects.

Fian Sukma Ningsih; Azizah Aulia Usman; Amelda Frida Eginingrum; Wildan Taufik Raharja; Haryo Kunto Wibisono

Perspektif Administrasi Publik dan hukum 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti Dan Pengajar Ilmu Sosial Indonesia

This study aims to evaluate the implementation of Sidoarjo Regent Regulation Number 69 of 2017 concerning the Civil Servant Code of Ethics in the Family Planning Sector at the Sidoarjo Regency Women's Empowerment, Child Protection, and Family Planning Office. A qualitative approach with a case study was used to explore the implementation of the policy through interviews, observation, and documentation. The analysis was conducted using William Dunn's six policy evaluation indicators, namely effectiveness, efficiency, adequacy, equity, responsiveness, and accuracy. The results show that the policy has provided clear behavioral guidelines and is applied evenly in the work environment. However, the effectiveness and efficiency of implementation are not optimal due to disciplinary violations, weak supervision, and unstructured communication between superiors. The aspects of adequacy and accuracy are considered relevant to the needs of the organization, but have not been able to fully overcome obstacles such as high workloads and low internalization of ethical values ​​among employees. In general, this policy contributes to shaping the professionalism of civil servants, but still requires strengthening through continuous supervision and more systematic coaching. The originality of the study lies in the use of Dunn's evaluation model in the context of the implementation of the civil servant code of ethics at the regional level, as well as identifying gaps between normative policies and field practices. These findings confirm that the success of a code of ethics depends heavily on organizational communication, work culture, and consistency of oversight.

Sri Wahyuningsih Nugraheni; Nopita Cahyaningrum

International Journal of Health and Medicine 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Kesehatan Indonesia

The implementation of the Health Workload Analysis (ABK Kes) method reveals both strengths and weaknesses, particularly regarding the suboptimal execution of core tasks such as filing and distributing medical records. This study aims to compare the workload of health human resources (SDMK) between primary and advanced healthcare facilities—specifically Banyudono 1 Public Health Center and Indriati Boyolali Hospital—both of which have implemented hybrid medical record systems. Using primary data collected through interviews and observations and analyzed via the ABK Kes method, the results indicate a need for 10 additional staff members in the Casemix Unit at Indriati Boyolali Hospital and 2 additional medical record practitioners at Banyudono 1 Public Health Center. The Available Working Time (WKT) at the Public Health Center was set at 75,000 based on the Minister of PAN-RB Regulation No. 1 of 2020, whereas the Hospital used real-time calculations. While the Public Health Center aligns its policies with Ministry of Health Regulation No. 19 of 2020, the Hospital adjusts its staffing needs based on the ABK Kes results. Given that this method focuses primarily on quantity, future research and development (R&D) should integrate Lean Thinking for process analysis, ABK Kes for capacity, Queueing Theory for dynamic analysis, and NASA-TLX for psychological evaluation to provide a more holistic assessment of staffing needs.

Victoria Gloria Andriani Warat; Ni Luh Widani

Jurnal Ilmu Kesehatan dan Gizi 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Arrhythmias are generally classified into two groups: disorders of impulse formation and disorders of impulse conduction. Cardiac arrhythmias can also be categorized into three main types: supraventricular arrhythmias, ventricular arrhythmias, and bradyarrhythmias. One of the most commonly encountered arrhythmias in clinical practice is Atrial fibrillation. This study employed a case study method using a nursing process approach. The subjects consisted of two patients: Mrs. S, a 74-year-old female, and Mr. R, a 44-year-old male. The nursing intervention administered was antiarrhythmic therapy using intravenous digoxin. Evaluation was conducted by monitoring the patients’ heart rate and cardiac rhythm using an electrocardiogram (ECG) monitor. The results of the case studies in both patients showed that digoxin therapy produced a positive therapeutic response, as evidenced by a gradual reduction in heart rate. However, ECG monitoring revealed no significant changes in cardiac rhythm. These findings suggest that digoxin is effective for rate control, although it does not restore sinus rhythm.

Ayu Novirianti; Isrowiyah Isrowiyah; Silvi Laila Rista Fauziah; Nabila Fitri Angelika; Didik Efendi

Jurnal Pendidikan Kimia, Fisika dan Biologi 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

This paper aims to describe the implementation and development of the Merdeka Curriculum at SD IT Permata Hati Entrop, an Integrated Islamic Elementary School. As an educational institution with a vision of integrating general knowledge with Islamic values, SD IT Permata Hati adapts the national curriculum to create learning that is more flexible, focused on essential content, and character-based. This curriculum is developed to optimize students’ potential holistically, encompassing cognitive, affective, and psychomotor aspects through the strengthening of the Pancasila Student Profile.The main focus of curriculum development at this school consists of three pillars: innovative intracurricular learning, the Project for Strengthening the Pancasila Student Profile (P5), and extracurricular activities that support students’ interests and talents. In its implementation, the school applies active learning methods such as Problem-Based Learning (PBL) and contextual learning linked to daily life and Islamic principles. The evaluation process is conducted through formative and summative assessments that are humanistic and reflective in nature. The outcomes of this development are expected to equip students with 21st-century skills and strong religious character in accordance with the demands of the times.

Cristin Natali Rouli; Muhammad Yunus; Asyrun Alkhairi Lubis

Jurnal Riset Ilmu Farmasi dan Kesehatan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Kesehatan Indonesia

Soursop leaves (Annona muricata L.) are known to contain secondary metabolites such as alkaloids, flavonoids, tannins, saponins, and polyphenols, which have antibacterial potential. This study aimed to formulate soursop leaf extract into a gel dosage form and to evaluate its antibacterial activity against Pseudomonas aeruginosa. This research was conducted as an experimental laboratory study. Soursop leaf extract was obtained using the maceration method with 96% ethanol as the solvent and then formulated into gel preparations with extract concentrations of 5%, 10%, and 15%. Physical evaluation of the gel preparations included organoleptic test, homogeneity, pH, spreadability, and viscosity. Antibacterial activity was evaluated using the well diffusion method on Nutrient Agar medium. The results showed that all gel formulations met the physical requirements for topical preparations. The antibacterial activity test demonstrated that the soursop leaf extract gel inhibited the growth of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, with the 15% concentration producing the largest inhibition zone of 10 mm compared to other concentrations. In conclusion, soursop leaf extract gel has potential to be developed as a topical antibacterial agent against Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

I Gusti Ngurah Rangga Mahesa; I Wayan Sudiarsa; I Putu Dicky Dharma Suryasa; Putu Agus Aditya Putra; Yulianus Kevin Dharmawa Sagur

Repeater : Publikasi Teknik Informatika dan Jaringan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

Stock price prediction remains a complex challenge due to the dynamic and non-linear nature of financial markets, especially for banking stocks like PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI). This study aims to optimize BBNI stock price forecasting by integrating an automated Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) pipeline with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm within a data engineering framework. Historical data from 2019 to 2025 were processed through a structured ETL sequence—including data cleaning, feature engineering, and MinMaxScaler normalization—to ensure high data quality. The dataset was partitioned into 80% for model training and 20% for testing to ensure rigorous evaluation. The results demonstrate that the systematic ETL approach significantly enhances model stability and predictive accuracy compared to conventional methods. The LSTM model effectively captured long-term temporal dependencies, providing reliable trend forecasts with an impressive test accuracy, achieving a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.0354. This research underscores that integrating robust data engineering practices with deep learning is essential for building resilient financial decision-support systems.

I Wayan Manik Mas Sri Dantya; I Wayan Sudiarsa; I Putu Kabinawa Raesa Putra; Brian Adi Sapurta; I Komang Hari Sastrawan

Repeater : Publikasi Teknik Informatika dan Jaringan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

In the rapidly evolving digital economy, the ability to anticipate transaction surges is a strategic asset for marketplace platforms to maintain operational efficiency. This research aims to build an accurate daily transaction volume forecasting system thru the implementation of an Extract, Transform, and Load (ETL) pipeline and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) predictive modeling. The dataset used is sourced from dataset_olshop.csv, which includes transaction history for the entire year of 2025. The ETL stage focused on data cleaning and handling missing values, while time series analysis began with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationarity test, which yielded a significant p-value of 0.000006. The parameter model was optimized using the auto_arima algorithm, which determined the ARIMA(2,0,0) configuration as the best model. The evaluation results of the model show fairly stable performance with a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) value of 2.002 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.704 on the test data. Research findings reveal a consistently higher purchasing pattern during the mid-month and end-of-month periods, with an average of 5.52 daily transactions, compared to the beginning of the month, which saw 5.48 transactions. The 30-day forecast results provide valuable insights for online store managers to proactively adjust inventory and logistics workforce allocation strategies. This research concludes that integrating data engineering techniques and statistical analysis can provide predictive solutions for the dynamics of the digital market.