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Minarsi Tihua; Widiastuti Ardiansyah; Susan Mokoolang; Ishak Korompot

Student Scientific Creativity Journal 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study examines the role of extension agents in supporting the success of beef cattle farmer groups in Tabongo District, Gorontalo Regency. The success of farmer groups is influenced not only by livestock potential, but also by the effectiveness of extension services, institutional capacity, and farmers’ willingness to adopt improved farming practices. Using an explanatory approach, the study collected primary data from 50 members of beef cattle farmer groups across nine villages through a Likert-scale questionnaire. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, validity and reliability tests, classical assumption tests, and multiple linear regression. The descriptive findings show that extension agents performed well as educators, facilitators, motivators, dynamizers, and catalysts. However, the catalyst role was excluded from the regression model because its indicators were invalid. Partially, only the motivator role had a significant effect on group success, with a coefficient of 1.683, t-value of 4.758, and significance value of 0.000. The educator, facilitator, and dynamizer roles showed positive but insignificant effects. Simultaneously, the roles of extension agents significantly influenced group success, with an F-value of 9.474 and significance value of 0.000. The R Square value of 0.457 indicates that extension agents explained 45.7% of group success.

Elia Rossa; Nurasia Natsir

International Journal of Management and Strategic Business Leadership 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study investigates the effect of total risk on firm performance and sustained growth among consumer non-cyclicals manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) over the period 2019–2023. Total risk is operationalized through the systematic risk proxy (Beta/β), estimated via the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) framework as the covariance between individual stock returns and the market return divided by the variance of market returns, using the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) as the market benchmark. Firm performance is measured through Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Tobin’s Q, while sustained growth is operationalized following Gerson et al. (2025) as SG = b × ROE, where b denotes the earnings retention ratio. Panel data regression analysis is applied to 225 firm-year observations drawn from 45 companies, with model selection guided by the Chow and Hausman specification tests. The Fixed Effect Model (FEM) is adopted for ROA, ROE, and SG, while the Random Effect Model (REM) is applied for Tobin’s Q. Results indicate that systematic risk exerts a significant negative effect on ROA (β = −0.312; p < 0.01) and ROE (β = −0.278; p < 0.01), but is statistically non-significant for Tobin’s Q, suggesting that capital market pricing in Indonesia does not fully incorporate systematic risk information. Critically, systematic risk exerts the largest and most significant negative effect on sustained growth (β = −0.347; p < 0.01), revealing a dual transmission mechanism through which risk suppresses ROE while simultaneously inducing more conservative dividend policies, both of which constrain long-run growth sustainability. These findings carry important implications for corporate risk management strategy and empirically enrich the literature on risk, performance, and growth in emerging capital markets.

Adra Ayu Ningsih; Agung Widhi Kurniawan; Rezky Amalia Hamka; Romansyah Sahabuddin; Burhanuddin Burhanuddin

Riset Ilmu Manajemen Bisnis dan Akuntansi 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This research is grounded in the understanding that employees are the core of organizational sustainability, and their job satisfaction is shaped not only by daily tasks but also by the organization’s ability to manage workload and support balance between work demands and personal life. This study aims to analyze the effect of workload and work-life balance on employee job satisfaction at the Class I Correctional Center (Bapas) Makassar. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected through questionnaires distributed to 54 employees and analyzed using multiple linear regression assisted by SPSS Statistics 25. The research variables consist of workload and work-life balance as independent variables, and job satisfaction as the dependent variable. The findings indicate that workload has a positive and significant effect on job satisfaction, suggesting that employees’ perception of being able to complete tasks effectively can increase their comfort and confidence at work. Work-life balance also shows a positive and significant influence, indicating that the ability to manage both work responsibilities and personal life contributes directly to greater feelings of satisfaction, stability, and motivation in performing duties. Simultaneously, both variables significantly affect job satisfaction, emphasizing the importance for organizations to regulate workload proportionally while providing space for employees to maintain a healthy life balance. These findings highlight that effective workload management and support for work-life balance are crucial organizational investments to foster a healthy, productive, and employee-centered work environment.

Moh Ghufron Muhtadi; Eko Prayitno; Kuntoro Bayu Ajie; Antonius Edy Kristiyono; Novitasari Novitasari

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Teknik 2026 Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study was conducted based on the crucial role of diesel generator engines as the primary source of electrical power on board ships, making their operational reliability essential. One of the factors influencing generator engine performance is lubricating oil temperature. Excessive lubricating oil temperature may reduce lubrication effectiveness, increase friction between moving components, and lower engine efficiency. Therefore, this research aimed to identify the causes of high lubricating oil temperature in diesel generator engines and determine appropriate corrective actions. The study employed a descriptive quantitative approach. Data were collected through direct observation, interviews, and documentation during sea practice aboard MV. CL FLANDERS from 4 July 2024 to 5 July 2025. The data were analyzed using simple linear regression to examine the relationship between generator load and lubricating oil temperature. The findings revealed that generator load had a significant effect on the increase in lubricating oil temperature. Under normal operating conditions, the lubricating oil temperature ranged from 60°C to 72°C, while under abnormal conditions it increased to between 68°C and 81°C. The abnormal rise in temperature was mainly caused by cooling system problems, particularly a dirty LO cooler, scale deposits on the sea water pump impeller, and blockage in the cooling capillary pipes. The regression equation under normal conditions was Y = 45 + 0.30X, whereas under abnormal conditions it was Y = 53.5 + 0.30X. Elevated lubricating oil temperature resulted in lower oil viscosity, higher fuel consumption, and reduced diesel generator engine performance. Therefore, regular maintenance of the LO cooler, sea water pump, and continuous temperature monitoring are necessary to maintain optimum engine performance.

Adam Azmi Fauzi

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of profitability, company size, and type of public accounting firm on Key Audit Matters (KAM), with audit fees as a moderating variable in manufacturing sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2022–2024 period. This study used a quantitative approach with a purposive sampling method. Data were obtained from audited financial statements and annual reports published on the official Indonesia Stock Exchange website. The study sample consisted of 67 companies, with a total of 201 observations. Data analysis techniques used included descriptive statistical analysis, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression, and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The results showed that profitability had a significant negative effect on KAM disclosure, while company size had a significant positive effect on KAM disclosure. The type of public accounting firm showed a significant negative effect on KAM disclosure. Furthermore, audit fees did not moderate the relationship between profitability and KAM, but they did moderate the relationship between company size and type of public accounting firm on KAM disclosure. This study demonstrates that company and auditor characteristics play a significant role in determining the disclosure of Key Audit Matters in the independent auditor's report.

Elia Rossa; Nurasia Natsir

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study examines the effect of working capital on firm performance and sustained growth among consumer non-cyclicals manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) over the period 2019–2023. Working capital is operationalized through three distinct proxies derived from Akgün and Memiş Karatəs (2021): the Cash Holding Level (CHL), which measures the proportion of cash and cash equivalents relative to total assets; the Cash Interactive Effect (CIE), which captures the efficiency of converting revenue into operating cash flow; and the Gross Working Capital Ratio (GWCR), which reflects the share of current assets within total assets. Firm performance is assessed through Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Tobin’s Q, while sustained growth is measured using the model proposed by Gerson et al. (2025), expressed as SG = b × ROE, where b denotes the earnings retention ratio. Panel data regression analysis is applied to 225 firm-year observations drawn from 45 companies. The study employs the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) for ROA and ROE, and the Random Effect Model (REM) for Tobin’s Q, as determined by the Hausman specification test. The findings reveal that CHL and CIE exert significant positive effects on ROA and ROE, while CIE is the only proxy to produce a statistically significant positive effect on Tobin’s Q. With respect to sustained growth, CHL and GWCR demonstrate significant negative effects, whereas CIE shows a significant positive effect, indicating that operational efficiency dimensions of working capital actively support long-term growth sustainability. These results reinforce the liquidity management theory and contribute empirical evidence that the structure and efficiency of working capital are strategic determinants of both short-term financial performance and long-term growth sustainability in Indonesia’s consumer goods manufacturing sector.

Nur Alif Sapoetra; Abd. Rahim; Citra Ayni Kamaruddin; Sri Astuty; Abdul Rajab

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This research investigates the effect of the amount of MSMEs, the number of buildings, and GRDP on regional tax revenue in selected cities and regencies in South Sulawesi, driven by the inconsistency between the growth of economic potential and the realization of tax revenue, where increases in MSMEs, buildings, and GRDP are not always followed by higher tax receipts. The study aims to analyze the effect of these variables and identify the most significant factors contributing to regional fiscal capacity. A quantitative approach is employed using panel data that combine time series and cross-sectional data from 2015-2024, analyzed through panel data regression with model selection based on Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier test. The results show that partially, MSMEs and the number of buildings do not have a significant effect on tax revenue, while GRDP has a positive significant impact; however, simultaneously, all variables significantly influence tax revenue, as indicated by a high Adjusted R-squared value. These findings suggest that economic growth, as proxied by GRDP, plays a more dominant role in increasing tax revenue compared to the mere increase in the number of MSMEs and buildings, implying that optimizing tax revenue requires not only expanding economic potential but also enhancing tax compliance, administrative efficiency, and the quality of economic growth.

Shinta Nurjanah; Erna Pujihartanti

Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Era Digital 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

The garment industry in Indonesia has experienced rapid growth in line with the increasing demand for fashion products, particularly in Bandung Regency, which is one of the main garment centers. CV Kiral, as a garment company, faces intense competition, especially in terms of promotion and product quality, which are crucial factors in attracting consumers. This study aims to examine the influence of promotion and product quality on consumer purchasing decisions at CV Kiral, both partially and simultaneously. The research method employed is quantitative with a descriptive and verificative approach. The sample consisted of 100 respondents, who were CV Kiral consumers, determined using Cochran’s formula and selected through simple random sampling. Data were collected using a Likert-scale questionnaire and analyzed through multiple linear regression, t-test, F-test, and coefficient of determination with the assistance of SPSS software. The results indicate that promotion has a positive and significant effect on purchasing decisions, as does product quality, which also demonstrates a positive and significant influence. Simultaneously, promotion and product quality make a strong contribution to improving consumer purchasing decisions. Thus, the success of CV Kiral in facing competition is highly determined by the effectiveness of creative digital promotions and the consistency of product quality that meets consumer expectations.

Dian Mawarni

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Hospitals play a strategic role in improving public health through professional, safe, and high-quality healthcare services. In modern healthcare organizations, service quality is not only determined by medical facilities and technology but also by the quality of human resources, particularly healthcare workers who directly interact with patients. This study aims to analyze the influence of authentic leadership on healthcare workers’ performance and hospital service quality. The study employed a quantitative explanatory research design involving 120 healthcare workers in a hospital setting. Data were collected using questionnaires and analyzed through multiple linear regression analysis. The findings demonstrate that authentic leadership has a positive and significant effect on healthcare workers’ performance, with a regression coefficient value of 0.648 and a significance level of 0.000. Furthermore, authentic leadership indirectly influences hospital service quality through healthcare workers’ performance, with an indirect effect value of 0.521. These findings indicate that leaders who demonstrate honesty, transparency, integrity, and interpersonal support are able to create a healthy work environment that enhances healthcare workers’ motivation, responsibility, and professionalism. Consequently, improved employee performance contributes to better hospital service quality, particularly in responsiveness, empathy, and communication with patients. This study highlights that authentic leadership is an effective leadership approach for strengthening healthcare human resources and improving hospital service quality in contemporary healthcare organizations.

Ujianto, Erik Iman Heri; Rianto, Rianto

Journal of Computing Theories and Applications 2026 Universitas Dian Nuswantoro

 The rapid adoption of smartphones among Indonesian digital natives has increased reliance on biometric authentication systems. However, empirical evidence regarding the relationship between user satisfaction and security risk awareness remains limited, particularly in developing-country contexts. This study investigates the behavioral dynamics of biometric security perception among 266 respondents, consisting of 221 high school students and 45 university students in Indonesia. A Python-based computational pipeline incorporating Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) validation and 1,000-iteration stochastic bootstrapping was employed to evaluate nonlinear behavioral patterns using Polynomial Regression and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multivariate analysis. The results confirm the existence of a nonlinear Security Paradox. While the overall population demonstrates a positive quadratic trajectory, the university student group exhibits a concave-down parabolic relationship (a=−0.0460), indicating a decline in perceived utility beyond a specific security threshold. The identified behavioral breaking point occurs at X≈5.45 (95% CI: 2.99–20.77), suggesting that excessive security hardening may reduce perceived usability and increase cognitive friction. Furthermore, the ablation analysis reveals that security risk awareness (p<0.001) is the strongest predictor of user satisfaction, exceeding the influence of daily usage intensity. Segment-level analysis further demonstrates behavioral divergence between respondent groups. High school students exhibit relatively uniform satisfaction toward biometric systems, whereas university students display greater variability and more critical perceptions regarding authentication friction. These findings indicate that highly rigid security configurations may become less effective for users with higher digital literacy and risk awareness. This study contributes a computationally validated behavioral framework for understanding security–utility trade-offs and provides a conceptual foundation for developing adaptive, user-centric, and friction-aware biometric authentication systems.

Nola Safira; Wiralestari Wiralestari; Ilham Wahyudi; Enggar Diah Puspa Arum

Jurnal Ekonomi, Akuntansi, dan Perpajakan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This research investigates how Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices influence the tax liabilities of consumer cyclical companies in Indonesia between 2020 and 2024. By employing the Effective Tax Rate (ETR) as a proxy for tax burden, the study analyzes 160 data points from 32 purposively selected firms. Utilizing a Fixed Effect Model for panel data regression, the empirical results indicate that superior ESG performance significantly correlates with a higher ETR. This suggests that corporations with higher sustainability transparency tend to exhibit better tax compliance and avoid aggressive tax avoidance schemes. Grounded in stakeholder and legitimacy theories, these findings underscore that ethical ESG adoption strengthens public accountability and enhances the integrity of corporate governance within the Indonesian capital market.

Ibni Sahara; Meifina Dwi Rezky; Amanda Dewi Lestari; Puji Desta Ananda; Nazeli Adnan

Jurnal Ekonomi, Akuntansi, dan Perpajakan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Economic growth in ASEAN countries has shown heterogeneous dynamics, particularly in the post-pandemic period. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic complexity, manufacturing value added, and foreign direct investment on economic growth in ASEAN-8 countries during 2015–2024. The study employs a quantitative explanatory approach using panel data regression analysis. The data were obtained from the World Development Indicators (World Bank) and Harvard Growth Lab. Based on the Chow and Hausman tests, the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was selected as the best estimation model. The results indicate that economic complexity has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, suggesting that increasing economic sophistication does not automatically promote growth when industrial and institutional readiness remain limited. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector has a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth. In contrast, foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on economic growth through capital accumulation and technology transfer. Simultaneously, all independent variables significantly affect economic growth in ASEAN-8 countries. These findings imply the importance of strengthening industrial capacity, institutional quality, and technological readiness to support sustainable economic growth in ASEAN countries.

Almausshofi Almausshofi; Ambya Ambya

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of renewable energy, energy consumption, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Indonesia for the period 1995-2024. This study uses secondary data over time (time series) with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) multiple linear regression analysis method corrected using the Newey-West Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) approach. The results show that renewable energy does not have a significant effect on CO2 emissions, which is caused by the still low share of renewable energy in the national energy mix which only reaches 10.95% in 2024. Energy consumption has a positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions, where every 1% increase in energy consumption increases CO2 emissions by 84.23%. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has a positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions. Every 1% increase in GDP per capita increases CO2 emissions by 35.03%, indicating that Indonesia remains on the EKC curve. Simultaneously, all three variables have a significant effect, with an adjusted R-squared value of 53.63%. This finding confirms that Indonesia's energy mix, still dominated by fossil fuels, is a major factor in high carbon emissions. Comprehensive energy efficiency policies, accelerated renewable energy transitions, and greener and more sustainable economic growth strategies are needed.

Wulandari Wulandari; Lestari Wuryanti; Ayu Nursari

International Journal of Management Science and Entrepreneurship 2026 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This study aims to analyze the influence of copywriting, visual marketing promotion, and community management on the success of local brand campaigns in Bandar Lampung through the Facebook Pro platform. The research is based on the increasing use of social media as a digital marketing tool by local brands in the fashion and culinary sectors; however, campaign outcomes remain inconsistent. This study employs a quantitative approach using a survey method by distributing questionnaires to business owners and administrators of Facebook Pro accounts of local brands in Bandar Lampung. Multiple linear regression analysis is used to examine both partial and simultaneous effects among variables. The findings indicate that copywriting, visual marketing promotion, and community management have significant partial and simultaneous effects on the success of local brand campaigns. These results confirm that the integration of persuasive messaging, high-quality visual content, and active community engagement plays a crucial role in enhancing engagement, visibility, and overall digital campaign effectiveness. This study provides practical implications for SMEs in optimizing marketing strategies through Facebook Pro and contributes academically to the development of integrated marketing communication studies in social media contexts.

Rukma Inna; Ilham Wardhana H; Burhanuddin Burhanuddin; Zainal Ruma; Rezky Amalia Hamka

Riset Ilmu Manajemen Bisnis dan Akuntansi 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to determine the influence of leadership style and organizational culture on the loyalty of the HIPMI Parepare Commissariat, Makassar State University (UNM) administrators. The research variables consist of leadership style as the first independent variable (X₁), organizational culture as the second independent variable (X₂), and administrator loyalty as the dependent variable (Y). The study population was all 40 active HIPMI Parepare Commissariat administrators at UNM during the study period. The sampling technique used was saturated sampling (census), thus the entire population was included as respondents. Data were obtained through questionnaires and analyzed using multiple linear regression with the help of SPSS. The results show that leadership style has a positive and significant effect on administrator loyalty, organizational culture has a positive and significant effect on administrator loyalty, and simultaneously, both leadership style and organizational culture have a significant effect on administrator loyalty. These findings indicate that the more effective the leadership style implemented and the stronger the organizational culture developed, the higher the level of administrator loyalty to the organization. The synergy between participatory leadership and a healthy organizational culture can create a conducive organizational environment, increase commitment, and strengthen organizational sustainability.

Winarno, Edy; Nur, Indah Manfaati; Karim, Abdul; Amri, Saeful; Wirdati, Ismi Elya +1 more

Journal of Computing Theories and Applications 2026 Universitas Dian Nuswantoro

Artificial intelligence has the potential to support radiology workflows by assisting in the identification of cases that may require additional clinical attention. However, alert-oriented medical AI systems should provide not only classification outputs but also interpretable evidence that can be reviewed and audited by clinicians. This study develops and evaluates an explainable multimodal framework for binary chest X-ray alert classification using paired radiology reports and chest X-ray images. The text branch employs TF-IDF n-gram features with a class-balanced Logistic Regression classifier, while the image branch fine-tunes a pretrained ResNet18 model. The two branches are integrated through probability-level late fusion using a validation-selected fusion weight. Explainability is implemented in a modality-specific manner: global coefficient analysis is used to identify influential textual cues, while Grad-CAM heatmaps are used to visualize salient image regions. Experiments were conducted on paired samples from the Open-i/IU X-Ray dataset using text-only, image-only, and fusion-based evaluation settings. Additional analyses include case-level complementarity analysis, bootstrap confidence intervals for ROC-AUC, shortcut-feature inspection, and qualitative Grad-CAM auditing. The results indicate that the text modality provides the dominant predictive signal under the current proxy-label setting. Late fusion produced a small descriptive improvement on the test set, increasing accuracy from 0.8533 to 0.8667, F1-score from 0.8817 to 0.8936, and ROC-AUC from 0.8936 to 0.9025 compared with the text-only baseline. However, the observed ROC-AUC improvement was not statistically conclusive based on bootstrap analysis. These findings suggest that the proposed framework is useful as a reproducible and auditable multimodal prototype, while also highlighting important limitations, including proxy-label ambiguity, potential label leakage from radiology reports, limited image-branch contribution, lack of external validation, and the need for stronger explanation and calibration assessment.

Natalia Natalia; Aris Eddy Sarwono

Jurnal Manajemen Sosial Ekonomi 2026 LPPM Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi - Studi Ekonomi Modern

Accounting students’ job readiness is a crucial issue in facing the demands of an increasingly digitalized professional world. This study evaluates the role of Accounting Information Systems (AIS) use, accounting competencies, and digital literacy in shaping student job readiness. A quantitative approach using survey method was applied to 153 accounting students at private universities in Surakarta City who had taken courses related to Accounting Information Systems. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The study findings indicate that these three variables significantly contribute to job readiness. Individually and collectively, mastery of technical competencies and digital skills is positively correlated with increased student readiness to enter the workforce. This underscores the importance of integrating accounting skills and technological literacy into yhe learning process. This study was limited to accounting students at privet universities in Surakarta City, so the results cannot be broadly generalized to the entire accounting student population

Budi Abdullah; Reysya Yusdianingsih; Nandita Saskya; Muhammad Muarif; Juliana Handayani br. Simatupang +2 more

Jurnal Hukum dan Sosial Politik 2026 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This study aims to analyze the unemployment rate in Indonesia during the 2024–2025 period using a linear regression approach based on data from the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas). The variables used include the labor force, employed population, labor force participation rate (LFPR), and open unemployment rate (OUR). The results show that the labor force increased from 149.38 million in February 2024 to 155.27 million in November 2025, followed by an increase in employed population from 142.18 million to 147.91 million in the same period. Meanwhile, the open unemployment rate decreased from 4.76 percent in February 2025 to 4.74 percent in November 2025. The analysis indicates that the increase in labor force accompanied by higher employment absorption contributes to reducing unemployment, although the decline remains relatively small. Overall, the regression results show that labor market dynamics are influenced by the interaction between labor force growth and the economy’s capacity to absorb labor.

Rinto Francius Sirait; Merlin Santinus

Jurnal Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Budaya 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Pastoral care within the Voice of Truth Gospel Church throughout North Sumatra has experienced a decline in quality in fostering the maturity of faith and the spiritual life of the congregation. The purpose of this study is to determine the extent to which emotional intelligence influences the quality of pastoral care within the Voice of Truth Gospel Church throughout North Sumatra. This study uses a quantitative approach. The data obtained were analyzed using simple linear regression techniques. This study proves that: Based on data reduction, it is known that the emotional intelligence of pastors, administrators, and servants of the Voice of Truth Gospel Church in the North Sumatra region is in the high category; Based on the results of data reduction, it is also known that the majority of respondents assess that pastoral care within the Voice of Truth Gospel Church throughout North Sumatra has been running quite effectively; Emotional Intelligence has a positive and significant effect on the variable of Pastoral Care Quality. This can be seen from the calculated t (8.857) > t table (1.65437) and Sig. (0.000) < 0.05, and based on the results of the coefficient of determination test, it is known that the Quality of Herding is influenced by the Emotional Intelligence variable with a value of 61.2% and the remaining 39.8% is influenced by other variables outside this study.

Hidayat, Nurul; Afuan, Lasmedi; Jannah , Helmi Roichatul

Journal of Computing Theories and Applications 2026 Universitas Dian Nuswantoro

Student dropout in higher education remains a persistent socioeconomic challenge, yet many predictive models reported in the literature are methodologically compromised by randomized cross-validation schemes that introduce temporal data leakage and artificially inflate predictive performance. This study proposes a longitudinal prescriptive learning analytics framework integrating three complementary methodological components: a Leave-One-Cohort-Out (LOCO) temporal validation protocol, a hybrid SMOTE-ENN class balancing strategy, and temporal velocity feature engineering derived from Learning Management System (LMS) behavioral trajectories. The framework was evaluated on a longitudinal dataset comprising 464,739 enrollment records and 77 features. Five predictive algorithms—XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression—were comparatively assessed on a strictly isolated blind holdout cohort (2022), with CatBoost emerging as the champion estimator, achieving a PR-AUC of 0.8859, a Macro F1-Score of 0.9143, and the lowest Brier Score (0.0221), thereby demonstrating superior calibration and discriminative capability under severe class imbalance (93:7 ratio). Comprehensive ablation analysis revealed that temporal velocity features function not merely as additive predictors, but as a structural prerequisite enabling Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique with Edited Nearest Neighbors (SMOTE-ENN) to generate high-quality synthetic boundary instances; removing these features reduced minority-class precision from 0.8302 to 0.6721. To operationalize predictive outputs into actionable intervention pathways, Diverse Counterfactual Explanations (DiCE) were implemented under a three-tier causal constraint architecture on 96 borderline high-risk students, generating 384 feasible intervention scenarios exclusively targeting forward-looking behavioral velocity metrics without constraint violations. Collectively, these findings advance the paradigm of prescriptive learning analytics by providing educational institutions with interpretable risk diagnostics and operationally feasible intervention guidance grounded in empirically validated behavioral and temporal dynamics.