Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Sumatera Barat: (Analisis Model ARDL)

Robi Andoni ; Sri Maryati ; Edi Ariyanto
JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA) 📅 2025 Vol 3, No 4 🔗 DOI: 10.54066/jrea-itb.v3i4.4308
Abstract
This study analyzes the effects of inflation, the Rupiah exchange rate against the United States Dollar, and economic growth on international tourist arrivals in West Sumatra during the 1996-2025 period. The study uses a quantitative approach based on annual secondary time-series data obtained from official statistical sources. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is employed to examine both short-run and long-run relationships among variables, while the Error Correction Model (ECM) is used to measure the speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. The results confirm the existence of long-run cointegration among inflation, exchange rate, economic growth, the COVID-19 dummy, and international tourist arrivals. The exchange rate has a positive and significant effect in both the short and long run. Inflation is not statistically significant, whereas economic growth is significant only in the short run through a lag effect. The COVID-19 dummy has a negative and significant impact. These findings highlight the importance of exchange rate stability and tourism resilience.
Keywords
Economic Growth; Exchange Rate; Inflation; Tourism; Tourist Arrivals
How to Cite

Robi Andoni, et al. (2025). Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Sumatera Barat: (Analisis Model ARDL). JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA), 3(4). https://doi.org/10.54066/jrea-itb.v3i4.4308

Robi Andoni; Sri Maryati; Edi Ariyanto, "Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Sumatera Barat: (Analisis Model ARDL)," JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA), vol. 3, no. 4, 2025.

Robi Andoni; Sri Maryati; Edi Ariyanto. "Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Sumatera Barat: (Analisis Model ARDL)." JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA), vol. 3, no. 4, 2025.

Robi Andoni; Sri Maryati; Edi Ariyanto. "Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Sumatera Barat: (Analisis Model ARDL)." JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA) 3, no. 4 (2025).

Robi Andoni, et al. (2025) 'Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Sumatera Barat: (Analisis Model ARDL)', JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA), 3(4). doi: 10.54066/jrea-itb.v3i4.4308.

Robi Andoni; Sri Maryati; Edi Ariyanto. Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Sumatera Barat: (Analisis Model ARDL). JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA). 2025;3(4).

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