Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Indeks Produksi Industri terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Pascapandemi (2018-2025)

Nugroho ; Farhan ; Alkena Sae Hafizah ; Adzra Andriana ; Anggun Mustika Anggraeni ; Alfian Fadillah ; Ahmad Setiawan Nuraya
JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA) 📅 2026 Vol 4, No 2 🔗 DOI: 10.54066/jrea-itb.v4i2.3926
Abstract
This study aims to analyze changes in Indonesia’s economic cycle patterns in the post-pandemic period, as reflected in inflation, interest rates, and the industrial production index over the 2018–2025 period. The study adopts a quantitative approach employing a multiple linear regression model. The data utilized consist of secondary time-series data obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik). The empirical results indicate that, simultaneously, the explanatory variables exert a statistically significant effect on economic growth. Partially, interest rates and the industrial production index demonstrate a positive and statistically significant influence. In contrast, inflation does not exhibit a statistically significant effect at the 10% significance level. The coefficient of determination (R-Squared) of 0.9327 suggests that the model possesses substantial explanatory power in accounting for variations in Indonesia’s economic growth. The descriptive analysis indicates that Indonesia’s economy experienced a contraction of -2,07% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a gradual recovery throughout the 2021–2025 period. These findings imply that post-pandemic shifts in Indonesia’s economic cycle patterns are more prominently driven by interest rate policy measures and real sector recovery relative to the role of inflation.
 
Keywords
Economic Cycle; Economic Growth; Industrial Production Index; Inflation; Interest Rates
How to Cite

Nugroho, et al. (2026). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Indeks Produksi Industri terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Pascapandemi (2018-2025). JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA), 4(2). https://doi.org/10.54066/jrea-itb.v4i2.3926

Nugroho, Farhan; Alkena Sae Hafizah; Adzra Andriana; Anggun Mustika Anggraeni; Alfian Fadillah; Ahmad Setiawan Nuraya, "Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Indeks Produksi Industri terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Pascapandemi (2018-2025)," JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA), vol. 4, no. 2, 2026.

Nugroho, Farhan; Alkena Sae Hafizah; Adzra Andriana; Anggun Mustika Anggraeni; Alfian Fadillah; Ahmad Setiawan Nuraya. "Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Indeks Produksi Industri terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Pascapandemi (2018-2025)." JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA), vol. 4, no. 2, 2026.

Nugroho, Farhan; Alkena Sae Hafizah; Adzra Andriana; Anggun Mustika Anggraeni; Alfian Fadillah; Ahmad Setiawan Nuraya. "Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Indeks Produksi Industri terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Pascapandemi (2018-2025)." JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA) 4, no. 2 (2026).

Nugroho, et al. (2026) 'Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Indeks Produksi Industri terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Pascapandemi (2018-2025)', JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA), 4(2). doi: 10.54066/jrea-itb.v4i2.3926.

Nugroho, Farhan; Alkena Sae Hafizah; Adzra Andriana; Anggun Mustika Anggraeni; Alfian Fadillah; Ahmad Setiawan Nuraya. Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Indeks Produksi Industri terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Pascapandemi (2018-2025). JURNAL RISET EKONOMI DAN AKUNTANSI (JREA). 2026;4(2).

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