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Exchange rates are a crucial indicator in an open economy, playing a significant role in influencing international trade, investment flows, and overall macroeconomic stability. This study aims to analyze the impact of rupiah exchange rate fluctuations on Indonesia’s economic growth during the period 2014–2023. The research employs a descriptive qualitative approach using secondary data obtained from official publications of Statistics Indonesia and Bank Indonesia. The main variables analyzed include the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar and Indonesia’s economic growth. The findings indicate that exchange rate movements are closely related to economic growth dynamics, particularly through international trade mechanisms, production costs, and the stability of the real sector. Depreciation of the exchange rate tends to enhance export competitiveness, but it may also trigger inflation due to rising import prices. Conversely, appreciation can help control inflation but may weaken export competitiveness. Therefore, maintaining exchange rate stability is essential to support sustainable economic growth and strengthen national economic resilience.

Global economic uncertainty and exchange rate fluctuations pose significant challenges to monetary stability in Indonesia, particularly in maintaining a controlled inflation rate. This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of the rupiah exchange rate to the inflation rate in Indonesia from 2015 to 2024. The method used in this study is library research by collecting, reviewing, and synthesizing data from various scientific literature, official central bank reports, and related journal articles published over the past decade. The research findings indicate that rupiah depreciation has a significant influence on rising inflation through the imported inflation channel, where currency depreciation increases the cost of raw materials for industries dependent on foreign markets. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the effectiveness of this transmission is influenced by public expectations and monetary policy taken by Bank Indonesia through adjustments to the benchmark interest rate. The implications of this study emphasize the importance of synergy between a stable exchange rate policy and controlling the supply of domestic goods to minimize the impact of external shocks on public purchasing power. The government and monetary authorities are advised to continue strengthening foreign exchange reserves and encouraging the use of local currencies in international transactions to reduce dependence on the United States dollar and maintain national price stability.

High dependence on the United States Dollar (USD) in international transactions has long been a challenge for economic stability in the Southeast Asian region, especially amidst global exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitical tensions. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of Local Currency Settlement (LCS) cooperation in supporting intra-ASEAN trade stability. The main focus of this study is how local currency mechanisms can mitigate exchange rate risks and strengthen regional economic integration as part of a de-dollarization strategy. The research method used is descriptive qualitative with a literature review approach, relying on secondary data from central bank reports, ASEAN policy documents, and relevant academic literature. The results show that the implementation of the LCS framework, particularly in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, has provided more efficient transaction alternatives by reducing double conversion costs. However, its effectiveness still faces challenges such as low awareness among business actors, limited local currency liquidity compared to the USD, and the need for broader cross-border digital payment system integration. These findings imply the need for strengthened synergy between central banks in the ASEAN region and increased literacy for the private sector so that the economic stability benefits of LCS can be optimally achieved. This strategy not only strengthens monetary sovereignty but also encourages a more resilient ASEAN economic integration against external shocks.

The Local Currency Settlement (LCS) initiative is a strategic instrument to promote ASEAN regional financial integration while reducing dependence on the US dollar in trade and investment transactions. Sub-regional cooperation between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand has become an important policy arena to test the effectiveness of LCS as part of the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint 2025. This article aims to analyze the role, opportunities, and challenges of LCS implementation within the framework of ASEAN financial integration, focusing on the dynamics of cooperation between the three countries. The research uses a qualitative approach through literature review and policy analysis. Data were obtained from official central bank documents, regional cooperation agreements, international agency reports, and academic literature related to financial integration and regional monetary cooperation. The analysis was conducted descriptively and analytically to identify implementation patterns, structural barriers, and policy implications. The results of the study indicate that LCS contributes to increasing the efficiency of cross-border transactions, reducing exchange rate risk, and strengthening sub-regional ASEAN financial cooperation. However, its implementation remains limited due to differences in financial infrastructure readiness, variations in domestic regulations, and low adoption by business actors. This article emphasizes the importance of policy coordination, regulatory harmonization, and private sector involvement to optimize the role of the LCS in supporting ASEAN financial integration.

This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic variables in the form of the dollar exchange rate, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) in Indonesia for the period 2010–2024. The research method used is a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis using time series data obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The data analysis technique was carried out through classical assumption tests and hypothesis testing to determine the relationship between variables. The results of the study show that partially GDP has a significant effect on the JCI, while inflation and the dollar exchange rate tend not to have a significant effect. However, simultaneously these three variables have a significant influence on the JCI. These findings show that macroeconomic stability is very important in maintaining the performance of the capital market in Indonesia and can be a reference for investors in making investment decisions. In addition, the results of the study confirm that national economic growth is the main indicator that market participants pay attention to in assessing investment prospects. Therefore, the government needs to maintain economic stability through effective and sustainable fiscal and monetary policies.

This research is an attempt to analyze and measure the impact of structural shocks to the US dollar exchange rate on the performance indicators of the Iraqi economy during the limited period (2004 to 2022) using the Kaldor square framework, which is based on four main components (economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and trade balance). Analytical and quantitative methods were rummage-sale to reveal the countryside of the relationship between these variables, through analyzing annual data and key economic indicators, using standard economic models and applying the (SVAR) technique. The study concluded that structural shocks to the exchange rate had varying effects on the components of the Kaldor square. The results showed a strong relationship between the exchange rate, economic growth, and the trade balance, while its impact on unemployment and inflation varied depending on the time period and political and economic developments. The study recommends adopting flexible monetary and fiscal policies that contribute to reducing exchange rate volatility and enhancing macroeconomic stability, which positively impacts sustainable structural growth.Inflation

In the first quarter of 2025, the Indonesian rupiah experienced a significant depreciation, weakening from approximately IDR 15,800 per USD in January to IDR 17,200 per USD by the end of March 2025. This study aims to identify and analyze the external and domestic factors contributing to the rupiah’s decline during this period. External pressure mainly stemmed from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance—maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 5.25%–5.50% which triggered capital outflows from emerging markets. Additionally, global geopolitical uncertainty, including tensions in Eastern Europe and trade frictions between the U.S. and China, raised the global risk premium and strengthened the U.S. dollar against the rupiah. On the domestic side, Indonesia’s trade deficit widened to USD 3.2 billion in Q1 2025 due to rising energy import demand amid surging global oil prices. Furthermore, the state budget deficit increased to IDR 104.2 trillion by March 2025 up 20% year on year undermining investor confidence. Using a qualitative descriptive method through content analysis of reports from Bank Indonesia, BPS trade statistics, and relevant media sources, this study finds that the combination of elevated U.S. interest rates, geopolitical tensions, trade imbalances, and fiscal deficits accelerated the depreciation of the rupiah. Policy recommendations include targeted foreign exchange intervention by Bank Indonesia, monetary tightening in line with global trends, fiscal consolidation to reduce the budget deficit, and export diversification to mitigate external shocks.

In today’s global economy, accurately predicting foreign exchange rates or estimating their trends correctly is crucial for informed investment decisions. Despite the success of standalone models like ARIMA and deep learning models like LSTM, challenges persist in capturing both linear and nonlinear dynamics in highly volatile exchange rate environments. Motivated by the limitations of these individual models and the need for more robust forecasting tools, this study proposes a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model that integrates ARIMA’s strength in modeling linear trends with LSTM’s capability to capture nonlinear dependencies, using historical USD/NGN exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) spanning 2001 to 2024. The research hypothesis posits that the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model will significantly outperform standalone models in forecasting accuracy. By comparing these models against state-of-the-art approaches, the study highlights the advantages of hybridizing statistical and deep learning methods. The findings demonstrate that the hybrid model achieved the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2.216 and the highest R² of 0.998, indicating superior forecasting performance. This study fills a critical research gap by demonstrating the effectiveness of hybrid deep learning in financial time series forecasting, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and financial analysts. Future research will extend this work by incorporating the latest dataset and evaluating model robustness during the recent surge in the Naira/Dollar exchange rate from 2023 to 2024.

Tobacco is one of the leading commodities in the agricultural sector. In the Indonesian agricultural sector, tobacco has been widely exported to various countries. Of the several tobacco export destination countries, Cambodia dominates the Indonesian tobacco export market. Problems related to fluctuations in Indonesia's export volume need serious attention, because this is important to understand the factors that influence the increase and decrease in the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia. Based on the description, the objectives of this study are (1) To analyze the influence of production volume, inflation, and the dollar exchange rate simultaneously on the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia, (2) To analyze the partial influence of production volume, inflation, and the dollar exchange rate on the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia. The data used in this study are secondary data with a total of 32 observations (years), using the multiple linear regression method. This study found that (1) Simultaneously, production volume, inflation, and the dollar exchange rate significantly affect the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia, and (2) Partially, production volume, inflation, and the dollar exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia. Based on the results of the study, it is hoped that the government can pay attention to the causes of fluctuations in the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports.  

This study aims to determine the effect of the Dollar Exchange Rate, Inflation and Production on Tuna Fish Production in North Sumatra. The research method used in this research is associative method. This method aims to determine the relationship between two or more variables and the type of data used is quantitative. The data used is secondary data or time series from 2014 to 2023 sourced from the Statistics center and Bank Indonesia. The analysis method in this research is multiple linear regression method. The results of multiple linear regression show the results of this study that the dollar exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on tuna exports in North Sumatra. Inflation has a positive and significant effect on tuna exports in North Sumatra. Production has a negative and significant effect on tuna exports in North Sumatra. Based on the results of the F test the dollar exchange rate, inflation and production simultaneously have a significant effect on the export variable. The coefficient of determination test results show that there is a very close relationship between the dollar exchange rate, inflation and production on tuna fish exports in North Sumatra with a value (R-Square) of 0.905 or 90.5%. This result means that the magnitude of the influence of the dollar exchange rate, inflation and production on tuna fish exports in North Sumatra is 90.5% while the remaining 9.5% is influenced by factors not examined in this study.

Wheat is one of the food commodities consumed by the Indonesian people. The need for wheat in Indonesia from year to year tends to increase but is almost entirely met through imports and makes Indonesia one of the world's largest wheat importers. Dependence on food commodities from the import side has a huge risk for national food security because in addition to the increasingly limited foreign exchange owned, there is also uncertainty in terms of quantity and price. The purpose of this study is to find out the factors that affect wheat imports in Indonesia. The variables in this study are foreign exchange reserves, international wheat prices, domestic rice prices, and the US dollar exchange rate. This study uses secondary data with a quantitative approach using 34 data. Data analysis techniques using descriptive statistical analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study show 1) Foreign Exchange Reserves, International Wheat Prices, Domestic Rice Prices, and the US Dollar Exchange Rate simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 2) Foreign Exchange Reserves partially have a positive and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 3) International Wheat Prices partially have a negative and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 4) Domestic Rice Prices and the US Dollar Exchange Rate have no significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia.

Indonesia is the first palm oil producing country and palm oil exporter in the world. In recent years, the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports has decreased. The determinants of the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports are the United States dollar exchange rate, the area of ​​Indonesian palm oil plantations, and the price of CPO. This research aims to analyze the influence of the United States dollar exchange rate, oil palm land area, and CPO prices in the short term and long term, simultaneously and partially on the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. The type of data in this research is secondary data in the form of quantitative data obtained from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia and the World Bank. This research was conducted in Indonesia from 1994-2023, with a total of 30 observations. The data analysis technique used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of the research show that the US dollar exchange rate and the area of ​​Indonesian palm oil plantations in the short and long term have a significant effect, while the CPO price has an insignificant effect on the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. The United States dollar exchange rate, the area of ​​Indonesian palm oil plantations, and the price of CPO simultaneously influence the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. The United States dollar exchange rate has a partially negative and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. The area of ​​Indonesian oil palm land has a partially positive and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. CPO prices have a negative and partially insignificant effect on the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports.

Shrimp is one of the leading fisheries commodities in Indonesia which is oriented towards international markets with export destinations to some countries. shrimp make a positive contribution to the economy because it generates foreign exchange for the State. This study aims to (1) analyze the percentage growth of the Indonesian shrimp trade in the international market and (2) analyzing the position of competitiveness of Indonesian shrimp in international comparative advantage. This research using time series data in secondary form starting in 1998 until 2017. Data were analyzed using constant market share analysis (CMSA) analyze the percentage growth in Indonesia's shrimp trade in the international market, while to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian shrimp is the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) comparative advantage approach. The results showed that the factors were significantly affect the growth of the Indonesian shrimp trade viz international shrimp prices, rupiah exchange rates against the dollar and export volume. (1) The growth of Indonesia's shrimp trade can be seen from 1998-2017 with a average percentage of trade growth of 1.5% (2) Based on competitiveness analysis, through Revealed Comparative analysis Advantage (RCA) shows that shrimp export competitiveness Indonesia in the international market has a comparative advantage seen from in 1998-2017 with an average value of RCA> 1 which was 1.04.    

Export activities in the long term can provide foreign exchange income for the country concerned, which will later be used to increase the growth of the country's economy, finance import needs and domestic development. A study by Kusuma and Twin (2012) concluded that exports had a positive and significant effect on national foreign exchange reserves. Exports are therefore one of the important benchmarks to know how much economic growth is in a country. The fluctuating state of exports in Indonesia is a very important thing to pay attention to. Especially in the face of the era of free trade in the Southeast Asia region or the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), Indonesia is expected to improve its export performance, so that it can compete with other countries. Then it is necessary to know what factors affect the increase and decrease in the value of Indonesia's exports. From the data processing it is known that interest rates and exchange rates together have a significant effect on total exports with α = 0.00390 < from α = 0.05. Parasially, the Bungan tribe had a negative and significant effect on total exports with a significance value of α = 0.0003 < of α = 0.05, and the exchange rate against the US dollar had a positive and significant effect on total exports with a significance value α = 0.0130 < of α = 0.05.

Insurance premium income needs to be maintained by business people, because it is the main performance that must be maintained and improved. This study looks at whether macro variables, such as; Inflation, economic growth and the dollar exchange rate affect changes in gross insurance premiums in Indonesia. The peneriode of this study for 15 years from 2008 to 2022 with correlation, regression, coefficient of determination analysis as well as t test and anova test (F test) by using SPSS software version 22. The results showed that the inflation rate, economic growth and the dollar exchange rate, had a significant effect simultaneously, while partially the variable of economic growth did not contribute significantly to gross insurance premiums in Indonesia with a coefficient of determination of 88.5% was very strong.

Sumi Lala.202010325238. Portofolio Construction On The Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) Using The Markowitz method (Empirical Study Of Kompas 100 period December 2014 – September 2023). Investment development is currently very rapid. Ownership of 2 or more items can called a portofolio.Investments will experience increases and decreases in the portofolio. This research aims to understand the level of  return of portofolios formed through Markowitz and also a comparison between portfolios returm with market capitalization and weighting. The shares in the portfolio are shares listed on the Kompas 100 Index. This research uses end of month data for the period December 2014 to September 2023.The results of this research found that 61 shares included in the portolio did not have a negative weight.the next result of this research is that the market rate of return portolio (IHSG) Significantly influences the rate of return of the portfolio that has been formed based on market capitalization significantly 1% Other macro variables US Dollar exchange rate.Interest rates and oil prices do not significantly affect the rate of return portfolios formed based on Market Capitalization.

Indonesia is one of the largest coffee-producing and exporting countries in the world. The role of coffee in the Indonesian economy in its position in the world economy illustrates that currently and in the future, coffee commodities have very potential and need to be developed, especially in terms of increasing coffee competitiveness and performance in the international market. Indonesian coffee exports are one of the most in-demand in the world. The quality of Indonesian Robusta coffee is recognized as superior to Vietnamese Robusta coffee. Some Indonesian Robusta coffees can get high marks so they are considered specialty coffees. In addition, the quality of Indonesian Arabica coffee is also recognized as being able to compete with Brazilian Arabica coffee. The purpose of the study was to analyze the effect of tourism, international coffee prices, total coffee production, land area of plantations producing smallholder plantations, and the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar on the export performance of Indonesian coffee commodities. The research method in this study is the Error Correction Model. The research variables used were tourism, international coffee prices, the amount of coffee production, the area of plantations producing smallholder plantations, and the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar which in this study functioned as an independent variable that affected the export performance of Indonesian coffee commodities, which functioned as the dependent variable. The results showed that (1) tourism, international coffee prices, total coffee production, land area of plantations producing smallholder plantations and the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar simultaneously had a significant effect on the export performance of Indonesian coffee commodities, (2) tourism, international coffee prices, the amount of coffee production, land area of plantations producing smallholder plantations partially have a significant and positive effect on the export performance of Indonesian coffee commodities, (3) the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar partially has a significant and negative effect on the export performance of Indonesian coffee commodities.

Muamala Fikh's research requires justification for currency transactions, because buying and selling foreign currency is closely related and cannot be separated from the functioning of the world economy. Foreign currency refers to foreign currencies such as US dollars, pounds sterling and ringgit. An efficient foreign exchange market means exchange rates will change in the future. Unpredictable. The marketing activities of international companies are often organized as separate and independent departments within the company.

By exploring international cooperation between Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia in the use of local currency through the Local Currency Settlement (LCS) framework, this research details the deeper context regarding concerns regarding dependence on the US Dollar after the 2016-2017 financial crisis. with an emphasis on the development of the use of local currencies after the Asian crisis of 1997-1998. This research reveals that one of the main criteria for establishing an optimal currency area (OCA) is exchange rate stability. In looking at the research results, a positive evolution of the use of local currencies in post-crisis ASEAN cooperation is illustrated, especially through the LCS initiative involving Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Although LCS implementation trends show positivity, further improvement is identified as an urgent need to bring it in line with total trade between countries. Hope lies in the LCS collaboration which is expected to strengthen currency stability, spur economic growth and increase trade activity in the region. Thus, this research provides valuable insight into the urgency of regional cooperation in managing dependence on global currencies, especially the US Dollar.

Factors Influencing Economic Growth on the Growth of Sharia Stock Investors in Indonesia in 2015-2021  Stocks have recently been increasingly in demand by the majority of people in Indonesia, many phenomena have occurred including economic problems, crises, politics, and others, but these fluctuations do not affect people's interest in buying Islamic stocks. This study aims to determine the effect of the dollar exchange rate, inflation, and economic growth on the growth of stock investors in Indonesia. This type of research is descriptive research which is analyzed using quantitative analysis. The data used are the financial reports of Islamic banks in Jambi through the Financial Services Authority (OJK), in the period from March 2015 to December 2021. The prerequisite analysis test was carried out using the normality test, muticolinierity, heteroscedasticity, and linearity tests. Furthermore, the data were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that during the period from 2015 to December 2021, the dollar exchange rate has no significant effect on the growth of Islamic stock investors and inflation has a significant negative effect on the growth of Islamic stock investors in Indonesia, GRDP has a significant effect on the growth of stock investors in Indonesia. and simultaneously the Dollar Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Economic Growth are significant for the Growth of Stock Investors in Indonesia.