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Analytics

Elfira Annisa; Wahyu Indah Sari; Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty

The International Conference on Education, Social Sciences and Technology 2022 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This research to analyze the contribution of variables from three economic policies, with monetary policy through interest rate variables, exchange rates, and money supply in facing economic recession. Where the fiscal policy variable is through tax value. Then macroprudential policy through Non Performing Loan and Capital Adequacy Ratio variables. This study uses secondary data or time series, namely from December 2019 to February 2021. The data analysis model in this study is the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model which is seen from being sharpened with Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), Panel ARDL, and Different Tests. The results of the IRF analysis show that the stability of the response of all variables is formed in period 8 or the medium and long term, where the response of other variables to changes in one variable shows different variations, both from positive responses to negative responses or vice versa, and there are variables whose responses remain positive or remain negative from the short term to the long term. The results of the FEVD analysis show that for the short-term inflation variable it is influenced by inflation itself and in the medium and long term it is influenced by interest rates. For the JUB variable in the short term it is influenced by JUB itself and in the medium and long term it is influenced by NPL. For the interest rate variable in the short term it is influenced by JUB while in the medium and long term it is influenced by the exchange rate itself and CAR. For the tax variable in the short, medium and long term it is influenced by the tax itself and JUB. For the NPL variable in the short, medium and long term it is influenced by JUB and tax. For the CAR variable in the short, medium and long term it is influenced by JUB and tax. Then the results of the ARDL Panel analysis show that the country that is able to become a leading indicator in controlling the economic recession in the Four of The Group Twenty, namely Turkey, is only done by interest rates. While South Africa is done by interest rates, taxes, NPL, and CAR. For Russia, it is done by all variables, namely the amount of money in circulation, interest rates, exchange rates, taxes, NPL, and CAR. Meanwhile, Indonesia is carried out by exchange rates, taxes, NPL and CAR.

Kurniawan, Rosid

Populer: Jurnal Penelitian Mahasiswa 2022 Universitas Maritim AMNI Semarang

As a developing country, Indonesia has an economic structure dominated by the agricultural sector, making it vulnerable to disruptions to economic stability. Economic growth is an indicator showing that the economic level of society in general has increased in terms of consumption habits and people's purchasing power for goods and services. However, excessive consumption leads to a consumer society and inflation. This study aims to look at the causality between inflation, consumer price index, interest rates, gross domestic product, and exchange rates using the time series approach in the form of the quarterly period 2014Q1 to 2022Q2 in Indonesia using the VAR (Vector Autoregression) method. The research results show that inflation is related to or influenced by the consumer price index and savings. As for the Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product and Interest Rates have no effect on inflation.