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This study aims to analyze the effect of the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR), Human Development Index (HDI), and zakat on poverty in Mandailing Natal Regency. The study employed a quantitative approach using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) based on quarterly secondary data from 2015 to 2025. The analytical procedures included stationarity testing, optimal lag selection, Johansen cointegration testing, VECM estimation, Granger causality testing, as well as Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD) analyses. The findings indicate that all variables were stationary at the second difference level, with an optimal lag length of four, and exhibited a long-run cointegration relationship. The VECM estimation reveals that, in the long run, the Open Unemployment Rate has a positive and significant effect on poverty, while zakat has a negative and significant effect in reducing poverty. In contrast, the Human Development Index does not significantly affect poverty, which may be explained by the presence of a development time lag and employment mismatch between workforce competencies and labor market demands. The Granger causality test indicates a one-way causal relationship from the Open Unemployment Rate to the Human Development Index. Furthermore, the Variance Decomposition analysis shows that poverty variation is predominantly explained by its own shocks (96.25%), reflecting the persistence of structural poverty. Therefore, policy synergy through employment expansion and the optimization of productive zakat programs based on business empowerment is recommended to accelerate poverty alleviation in Mandailing Natal Regency.

This study examines the determinants of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) based on three main macroeconomic factors namely inflation, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the SBI interest rate (BI Rate) covering the period January 2020 to December 2025, in the context of post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery and global economic turmoil. A quantitative approach was employed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, with 72 monthly observations derived from secondary data sourced from official institutions including Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Classical assumption tests were applied comprising the Jarque-Bera normality test, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for multicollinearity, Breusch-Godfrey for autocorrelation, White Test for heteroscedasticity, and Ramsey RESET for model specification. Partially, inflation, exchange rate, and BI Rate each demonstrate a positive and significant effect on the JCI (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, all three variables exert a significant combined influence on the JCI, with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.4414, indicating that the model explains 44.14% of the variation in the JCI. The remaining 55.86% is attributed to other variables outside the model. Classical assumption test results reveal violations of normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity assumptions, although the model is free from multicollinearity. These findings confirm that Bank Indonesia's monetary policy has a significant and measurable impact on capital market performance. Further research is recommended using more advanced time series models such as GARCH or VECM to address violations of classical assumptions and improve estimation efficiency.

Macroeconomic indicators are essential instruments in the process of planning a country's development. Assumptions regarding inflation, unemployment, and economic growth are often used by governments to determine macroeconomic policies. Given this context, it becomes important to empirically understand the relationship among these three macroeconomic indicators in Indonesia. This study statistically examines the relationship between the variables of inflation, unemployment, and economic growth using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. The results show that inflation and the open unemployment rate significantly influence economic growth. Inflation has a positive relationship with economic growth, while the open unemployment rate has an inverse relationship with economic growth. In the short term, economic growth is significantly affected by the growth rate in the previous period (lag-1 or t-1). Meanwhile, inflation and the open unemployment rate do not statistically have a significant impact on economic growth. Shocks to inflation and the open unemployment rate are relatively not excessively responded to by economic growth.

This study investigates the influence of the Provincial Minimum Wage (MW) and education level on changes in worker status in Lampung Province, using Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) as a control variable. Changes in worker status are defined as individual transitions in the labor market from 2021 to 2022, numerically coded as follows: employed-to-employed (3), employed-to-unemployed (1), unemployed-to-employed (2), and unemployed-to-unemployed (0). The analysis uses microdata from the National Labor Force Survey (NLFS), consisting of 22,999 respondents across all regencies/cities in Lampung Province. This study uses VAR and VECM models to examine short and long term relationships among the variables. The findings reveal that the minimum wage (LOGMWt) does not significantly influence changes in worker status in either the short or long term. Education shows varied effects: lower (EDUC1) and higher (EDUC3) levels have a significant negative impact, while middle education (EDUC2) has a significant positive effect. Meanwhile, LOGGDRP positively and significantly affects worker status changes in both time frames. These results underscore that improvements in EDUC2 and LOGPDRB play a more in facilitating labor market transitions than minimum wage policy alone.

This study investigates the impact of household consumption and investment on the open unemployment rate in West Kalimantan over both short and long terms. Using time series data from 1995–2024 and employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in EViews 12, results show all variables become stationary after first differencing. Johansen cointegration confirms a long-run equilibrium relationship. VECM findings reveal that investment significantly increases unemployment in the long run, while household consumption has no significant effect. In the short term, a significant error correction mechanism exists, indicating adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Diagnostic tests confirm model validity through absence of autocorrelation and normally distributed residuals. These results highlight the need for more targeted policies to reduce unemployment.

This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation in Indonesia during the period 1994–2023 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The data used are monthly time series secondary data obtained from the World Bank. The Johansen cointegration test results indicate a long-term relationship among the three variables. However, the Granger causality test finds no significant short-term causal relationship. The VECM estimation reveals that inflation is the most responsive variable in correcting long-term disequilibrium, while the exchange rate plays a dominant role in influencing both inflation and interest rates. The Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition results indicate that these variables interact dynamically, especially in the medium to long term. These findings highlight the importance of exchange rate stabilization and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy to maintain macroeconomic stability in Indonesia.

This study aims to evaluate the long-run and short-run relationship between the Islamic capital market and Islamic banking on Indonesia's economic growth over the period 2013-2023. Using a quantitative approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method, this study analyzes the dynamics between these variables. The data used includes the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), Islamic bonds, Islamic banking third-party funds (DPK), non-performing financing (NPF), and real gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator of economic growth. The analysis shows that in the long run, both the Islamic capital market and Islamic banking contribute significantly to economic growth. However, in the short term, only a few variables show a significant effect. These findings confirm the strategic role of the Islamic financial sector in supporting sustainable economic growth, as well as the importance of strengthening and developing Islamic instruments to support national economic stability and progress.

This study aims to analyze the influence of the Islamic financial sector on economic growth in Indonesia during the period 2014–2022. The Islamic financial components examined include Islamic stocks, sukuk (Islamic bonds), Islamic mutual funds, third-party funds from Islamic banking, and assets of Islamic non-bank financial institutions (IKNB). Economic growth is measured using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the dependent variable. The analysis employs a quantitative approach using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), complemented by Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) to assess both short-term and long-term relationships. The results reveal that Islamic stocks and sukuk have a significant and positive effect on GDP in both the short and long term. Third-party funds from Islamic banks also contribute positively in the long run, although their short-run impact is insignificant. Conversely, Islamic mutual funds and IKNB assets show no statistically significant influence on economic growth. These findings highlight the strategic importance of strengthening Islamic capital market instruments and improving financial intermediation to foster sustainable economic development in Indonesia.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengeksplorasi faktor makroekonomi yang mempengaruhi ekspor di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yaitu data ekspor, inflasi, suku bunga, dan nilai tukar pada periode 1998-2022 yang dipublikasikan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik dan Bank Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif. Metode analisis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dengan data time series, data diolah dengan menggunakan program eviews 10. Hasil pengujian VECM dalam jangka panjang inflasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor, suku bunga berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor. Untuk jangka pendek inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor, suku bunga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor, dan nilai tukar pada jangka panjang dan pendek berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap ekspor.

Developing and developed countries rely heavily on the use of electrical energy to carry out social and economic activities. The purpose of this study is to analyze economic growth and its influencing factors in the period 2004-2023. This research uses time series data. The data method used is the VECM model. The results of this study indicate that there is a one-way causality relationship between variables. In the short term only CO2 emission variables affect economic growth, while in the long term all variables such as electricity and population can affect economic growth.

This research aims to investigate whether the exchange rates and inflation in Iraq have a long-term equilibrium relationship or not. A dataset of exchange rates and inflation from 2000 to 2020 was used. Johansen’s cointegration test was employed to confirm that there is a long-term correlation between these variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was utilized, along with Granger causality tests, to understand the long and short run connections and to determine if the causality flow is bidirectional or unidirectional. The results provided proof of a long-run equilibrium connection among inflation and rates of exchange, with strong evidence of a unidirectional causal flow from rates of exchange to inflation in Iraq.

This study aims to determine the influence of the Influence of Money Supply, Inflation and Rupiah Exchange Rate on Murabahah Financing Margin in Indonesia Sharia Banks throughout Indonesia from 2013-2022. The type of research conducted is quantitative research. The method used in this study used the analysis of the Vector Auto Regression model of the VECM model and a data tool processed using Eviews 10. The data used is secondary data taken through the official website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for a period of 10 (ten) years from 2013-2022. Based on the results of the study, it is known that the results of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) test of this study show that only the variables of the Money Supply and the Rupiah Exchange Rate have a positive and significant impact, while the influence of the Inflation variable on Murabahah Financing Margin (Case Study of Bank Syariah Indonesia in 2013-2022) in the short term has a positive and insignificant impact. The Effect of Money Supply and Inflation on Murabahah Financing Margin has a positive and significant impact, while the influence of the Rupiah Exchange Rate variable on Murabahah Financing Margin in the long term has a negative and insignificant impact. 

This study aims to analyze the effect of money supply (JUB), e-money transactions, and the BI 7-Day Reserve Repo Rate on the inflation rate in Indonesia in the period 2012 to 2021. The background of this research is based on the increasing use of non-cash transactions and the dynamics of monetary policy in maintaining price stability. The method used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to measure the short-term and long-term relationship between variables. The analysis shows that JUB and e-money have a positive influence on inflation in the long run, while BI 7-Day Rate has a negative and significant effect on inflation. Simultaneously, the three variables show a significant relationship with inflation, indicating the importance of controlling monetary instruments in maintaining price stability in Indonesia. This study contributes to the understanding of the role of payment system innovation and interest rates in controlling national inflation.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between economic growth and community welfare. The time series data used covers the years 2014-2023. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is the technique used for data analysis. The study found that although there is no substantial correlation between economic growth and community welfare, there is a causal relationship between the two, which suggests that the causal relationship is not unidirectional. In addition, only community welfare has a short-term impact on economic growth; there is no long-term relationship between the two.

Economic growth is a top priority for every country. Economic growth is used as an important indicator to assess economic performance. Population growth, unemployment rate, and inflation rate are considered important factors that influence economic growth. This research aims to analyze the influence of population, unemployment and inflation on economic growth in Central Kalimantan Province. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method is used to analyze short-term and long-term relationships between these variables. The research results show that in the short term, inflation, unemployment and population do not have a significant effect on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). However, in the long term, only unemployment and population do not show a significant influence on GRDP. This research contributes to understanding the dynamics of economic growth and provides insight for policy makers in Central Kalimantan Province to formulate effective strategies for sustainable development.

The development of Islamic economics with the application of sharia principles in economic activities is starting to be practiced in the field of sharia finance. This started with the establishment of sharia banking, then followed by the emergence of the sharia capital market as an investment tool to attract profits and seek capital. The Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) as the antithesis of the conventional capital market has challenges when carrying out investments using sharia principles, this is because securities in the form of shares are greatly influenced by macroeconomic aspects such as interest rates. So sharia share prices are very sensitive to the dynamics of interest rates. This research seeks to see the extent of the influence of interest rates on sharia sham prices at JII. The method used is VECM analysis to see long-term effects. The results of this research found that the interest rate variable did not significantly influence sharia stock prices in the long term, however the results of the VECM analysis found that there was a negative relationship, meaning that there was still an influence, although not significant. So sharia share prices can still be affected by changes in conventional interest rates.

This study aims to analyze the role of the financial sector in poverty alleviation in Indonesia using annual data for the period 1980-2014. The ARDL cointegration approach is used to show the existence of a long-run trade-off between the financial sector and poverty alleviation. In addition, the Granger causality VECM method is also used to detect the direction of the causal relationship between the financial sector and poverty. In addition, to measure the time horizon and relative intensity of poverty in response to shocks experienced by the financial sector, impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition (VDC) are used. Private sector money supply and domestic credit ratio are used as indicators of financial sector development, while poverty is measured by household consumption expenditure per capita and economic growth is measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The results show that there is a long-run relationship between the financial sector, economic growth and poverty alleviation in Indonesia. Furthermore, the results show that there is a two-way causal relationship between the financial sector and poverty. The contribution of money supply and private credit ratio to poverty shocks is positive. Therefore, to accelerate poverty alleviation, the government can adopt a policy that requires commercial banks to provide convenient lending conditions for the poor and the private sector.

This study was compiled to find out the results of an analysis of the factors that influence the human development index in DKI Jakarta Province for the 2017-2021 period. The human development index explains how people can access development outcomes in terms of income, health, education, and so on. HDI is based on three basic dimensions which include: 1. Long and healthy life (a long and healthy life); 2. Knowledge; 3. Decent standard of living. The purpose of this study is to analyze the components of each dimension that underlies the human development index, such as the Morbidity factor which is an extension of the dimensions of longevity and healthy life, the Net Enrollment Rate (APM) factor which is an extension of the education dimension, and the open unemployment rate factor. which is an extension of the dimension of a decent standard of living. These three components are used as independent variables to analyze their influence on the human development index in the DKI Jakarta province for the 2017-2021 period. This study is also used to rank the components that have the most influence to those that have the least impact on the HDI for DKI Jakarta province for the 2017-2021 period. This study uses Eviews-10 with time series data sourced from the DKI Jakarta Central Statistics Agency (BPS) web for the period 2017-2021. The research method used is the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) which functions as an approach to predict long-term and short-term relationships in one time series data to other time series data. The results of this study say that the TPT variable (open unemployment rate), Morbidity Rate, and Net Participation Rate (APM) only make a small contribution to the Human Development Index in districts/municipalities in the Province of Jakarta. In the analysis results of the f test and t partial test, only two variables namely TPT (open unemployment rate) and morbidity have an influence on HDI. Meanwhile, the APM variable (pure enrollment rate) has no effect on HDI.