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Aditya Wardana; Bintis Ti’anatud Diniati; Rizza Tiaratu; Erika Dwi Maretya Nur Utami; Wildan Fathul Faza

JURNAL EKONOMI BISNIS DAN MANAJEMEN (JISE) 2026 CV. ALIM'SPUBLISHING

The stock market is a place to buy shares for profit. In Indonesia, energy stocks are highly unpredictable because global commodity prices change constantly. This study examines what affected energy stock returns in 2024, focusing on trading volume, price swings, company profits, and cash flow. Using financial reports and statistical analysis, all these factors were tested together and individually. The results show that combined, all these factors do affect stock returns. However, when looked at one by one, only the company's net profit truly matters to investors. On the other hand, busy trading, daily price swings, and cash flow have no impact at all. In fact, all the factors studied only account for 14% of stock return movements, while the remaining 86% is driven by other outside forces. In conclusion, for those looking to invest in energy stocks, the most important thing to watch is the company's ability to generate net profit, rather than just looking at how busy daily transactions are in the market.

Andriani, Wresti; Gunawan; Naja, Naella Nabila Putri Wahyuning

IT-Explore: Jurnal Penerapan Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi 2026 Fakultas Teknologi Informasi, Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana

Bank stock price prediction is an important topic in the application of information technology because stock price movements are dynamic, sequential, and influenced by historical market patterns. This study aims to predict Indonesian banking stock prices using the Long Short-Term Memory method and evaluate the effect of Bayesian Optimization on model performance. The data used in this study consists of daily historical stock data of BBCA, BBNI, BBRI, BBTN, and BMRI from May 4, 2020, to May 4, 2026, obtained from Yahoo Finance. The input features include opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, while the prediction target is the stock closing price. The results show that the baseline model produced MAPE values ranging from 1.892% to 3.147%. The best baseline performance was obtained on BBCA with an R² value of 0.933, followed by BBTN with an R² value of 0.902. After optimization, performance improvement occurred on BBTN, with MAPE decreasing from 3.147% to 2.482% and R² increasing from 0.902 to 0.935. For BMRI, MAPE decreased from 2.385% to 2.206%, and R² increased from 0.687 to 0.743. This study concludes that Long Short-Term Memory can be used to predict Indonesian banking stock prices, while Bayesian Optimization can selectively improve model performance depending on the characteristics of each stock dataset.

Maiz Wachid Anshorie; Anik Farida; Ela Nurlaela; Abdul Azis; Syaeful Bahri

Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Bisnis 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study examines the determinants of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) based on three main macroeconomic factors namely inflation, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the SBI interest rate (BI Rate) covering the period January 2020 to December 2025, in the context of post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery and global economic turmoil. A quantitative approach was employed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, with 72 monthly observations derived from secondary data sourced from official institutions including Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Classical assumption tests were applied comprising the Jarque-Bera normality test, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for multicollinearity, Breusch-Godfrey for autocorrelation, White Test for heteroscedasticity, and Ramsey RESET for model specification. Partially, inflation, exchange rate, and BI Rate each demonstrate a positive and significant effect on the JCI (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, all three variables exert a significant combined influence on the JCI, with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.4414, indicating that the model explains 44.14% of the variation in the JCI. The remaining 55.86% is attributed to other variables outside the model. Classical assumption test results reveal violations of normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity assumptions, although the model is free from multicollinearity. These findings confirm that Bank Indonesia's monetary policy has a significant and measurable impact on capital market performance. Further research is recommended using more advanced time series models such as GARCH or VECM to address violations of classical assumptions and improve estimation efficiency.

Jeni Parastika; Septa Diana Nabella; Dewi Permata Sari; Yandra Rivaldo; Zaifun Nur Fatrianto

Jurnal Manajemen Riset Inovasi 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Investment decisions in pharmaceutical manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are influenced by fundamental analysis and stock price fluctuations. Stock prices reflect market perceptions shaped by profitability, liquidity, and capital structure. This study examines the effects of Return on Assets (ROA), Current Ratio (CR), and Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER) on stock prices, both partially and simultaneously. Using a quantitative approach, the study analyzes secondary data from audited financial statements and stock prices of 12 pharmaceutical companies during 2022–2024, totaling 36 observations. Panel data regression with EViews 12 is applied. Results show that ROA and DER have positive and significant effects on stock prices, while CR has a negative but insignificant effect. Simultaneously, all three variables significantly influence stock prices, with an adjusted R² of 73%, indicating strong explanatory power. Profitability (ROA) is the most influential factor, followed by capital structure (DER), while liquidity (CR) shows no significant impact.

Maynisa Naomi Marpaung; Christella Miranda Josephine Simbolon; Solagratia Raya Manalu; Putri Kemala Dewi Lubis

JURNAL EKONOMI BISNIS DAN MANAJEMEN (JISE) 2026 CV. ALIM'SPUBLISHING

This study aims to examine the effect of Return on Assets (ROA), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and e-IPO regulation on the level of IPO underpricing on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2021–2025 period. The research employs a causal quantitative approach using multiple linear regression analysis. Secondary data were collected from the prospectuses and financial statements of companies conducting Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).The results indicate that ROA does not have a significant effect on underpricing (significance value = 0.181). Similarly, DER is found to have no significant influence on underpricing (significance value = 0.268). The simultaneous test also shows a non-significant result, with an F-significance value of 0.120, suggesting that the independent variables collectively do not affect IPO underpricing. Furthermore, the coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.175 implies that only 17.5% of the variation in underpricing can be explained by the variables included in the model, while the remaining 82.5% is attributable to other factors outside the study, such as market sentiment, underwriter reputation, and oversubscription levels. These findings suggest that investors in the Indonesian IPO market tend to prioritize short-term capital gain opportunities rather than relying on firms’ financial fundamentals. Consequently, accounting-based indicators are not sufficiently influential in shaping stock prices during the first day of trading.

Yescenia Sigiro; Suriyani Br Ginting; Eki Monalisa Br Surbakti; Yulce Ketrina Karubuy; David Christian Silitonga +1 more

Maeswara : Jurnal Riset Ilmu Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

The Indonesian capital market has become a vital pillar of the national economy, providing opportunities for companies to obtain funding while simultaneously providing an investment vehicle for the wider community. In this context, stocks are the most sought-after instrument due to the potential returns they offer. However, stock investment is constantly faced with uncertainty, with fluctuating stock prices often presenting challenges for investors, especially those without a thorough understanding of the company's fundamental performance. An interesting phenomenon, the starting point of this research, is the quite extreme price movements of BIPI shares over the past decade. From 2015 to 2021, BIPI's share price remained stagnant at Rp 50 per share, a condition often referred to by market participants as "gocap" (goat capit). This condition reflects low investor interest in the company's shares, possibly due to high risk perceptions or unconvincing fundamental performance.

Muthia Rahma Putri Dahlia; Nizwan Zukhri; Willa Fatika Sari

JURNAL EKONOMI BISNIS DAN MANAJEMEN (JISE) 2026 CV. ALIM'SPUBLISHING

This study aims to examine the differences in stock prices before and after the Palestine-Israel ceasefire event in fast-food restaurant companies,  Pizza Hut and KFC. International-scale events may influence investor perceptions, as reflected in stock price movements in the capital market. This study employs a comparative quantitative approach using stock price data collected over 30 days before and 30 days after the ceasefire event. The analyzed data consist of secondary data processed through descriptive statistics, normality tests, and hypothesis testing. The findings indicate that the average stock price of PZZA increased after the event, whereas FAST experienced a decline in its average stock price. These results reveal differences in stock prices between the periods before and after the ceasefire event in both companies. The findings further suggest that geopolitical events are associated with changes in stock prices in the fast-food restaurant industry, although market responses differ across companies. Therefore, future studies are recommended to expand the scope of research objects and extend the observation period to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of market responses to international events.

Wisnu Hari Nugraha Bintoro; Destian Andhani

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation and interest rates on the stock prices of banking companies listed in the IDX80 index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019–2024 period. Research data were obtained from official reports of banking company stock prices as well as inflation and interest rate data from Bank Indonesia. The study used a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression methods through the SPSS application, and classical assumption tests were conducted as a requirement for analysis. The study population included all IDX80 banking companies, with a saturated sampling technique resulting in five banks that met the criteria during the study period. The results of the partial test indicate that inflation has a positive and significant effect on stock prices, while interest rates have a negative and significant effect on stock prices. This indicates that stable inflation can still improve the performance of the banking sector, while rising interest rates tend to depress stock prices due to increased borrowing costs and a shift in investment to other instruments. The results of the simultaneous test also show that inflation and interest rates together have a significant effect on the stock prices of IDX80 banking companies. The results show that inflation has a significant positive effect on stock prices with a significance value of 0.034, while interest rates have a significant negative effect with a significance value of 0.018. Simultaneously, inflation and interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices with a calculated F value of 14.549 > Ftable 2.70 and a significance of 0.000 < 0.05.

Dian Adalia; Diva Raniza; Wike Novianti; Annisa Tassia Hutagalung

Jurnal Ilmu Hukum Sosial dan Humaniora 2026 Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

This paper focuses on a legal review of foreign investment regulations in Indonesia, a crucial aspect that underpins most of the discussion. Furthermore, it frequently highlights the implications of legal regulations on investment, including foreign investment, in several related regulations, such as the Job Creation Law and the Investment Law, for market volatility, corporate governance, and stock prices in Indonesia. This paper emphasizes a normative-empirical context, focusing on a review of capital market investment regulations and secondary analyses conducted through several journals reporting on the effectiveness of foreign investment for local companies, enhancing their image as local companies, a trend inevitably driven by local interests. This is further supported by the use of various important theories, such as foreign investment theory, the legal framework for foreign investment, stock performance theory, and efficient investment, as crucial theoretical considerations in the discussion. The point of the results of the discussion in this writing is then emphasized on its focus, namely the results of the review of the legal regulations regarding capital markets that include foreign capital markets, which also discusses the results of research reports from various journals related to the implications of foreign investment regulations as well as the challenges and discussions of harmonization regarding existing investment regulations in Indonesia.

Fria Setiono

JURNAL EKONOMI MANAJEMEN AKUNTANSI 2026 sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Dharma Putra Semarang

Public companies must maintain sustainability, as it is related to their value. A company's value can be measured by its share price; a higher market price indicates a company's financial performance and investment returns for investors. A phenomenon has been observed in the consumer non-cyclical sector, which experienced declines and fluctuations in value from 2020 to 2024. This phenomenon indicates that falling share prices lead to a decline in company value. This study aims to analyze the influence of Corporate Social Responsibility, Tax Avoidance, and Dividend Policy on Company Value in companies in the Consumer Non-Cyclical sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2020-2024 period. The study sample consisted of 10 companies with 50 data observations selected using a purposive sampling technique. Data analysis was conducted using panel data regression with the help of EViews 12 software. The results of the study indicate that (1) Corporate Social Responsibility, Tax Avoidance, and Dividend Policy as a whole have an effect on Company Value, (2) Corporate Social Responsibility partially has no effect on Company Value, (3) Tax Avoidance partially has no effect on Company Value, (4) Dividend Policy partially has no effect on Company Value. These findings prove that Corporate Social Responsibility, Tax Avoidance, and Dividend Policy together are able to influence company value, even though each variable does not have an effect on company value.

Rohmat Rohmat; Suharmadi Suharmadi

Riset Ilmu Manajemen Bisnis dan Akuntansi 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

The auditor's responsibilities include not only assessing the accuracy of financial statements and detecting fraud, but also evaluating the company's ability to continue its business on an ongoing basis. This responsibility arises from the expectations of shareholders and other stakeholders that auditors provide timely and relevant information about the company's future prospects to support rational and evidence-based investment decision-making. In this context, audit opinions related to business continuity are an important instrument in reducing information asymmetry between management and investors. This study aims to analyze the impact of liquidity, solvency, and audit quality on the issuance of business continuity declarations. The research sample consisted of coal mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange between 2014 and 2017, a period marked by fluctuations in commodity prices and global economic uncertainty. Logistic regression is used as an analysis method because dependent variables are dichotomous. The results showed that audit quality had a significant negative impact on the issuance of business continuity declarations, while liquidity and solvency did not have a significant impact on the issuance of the declarations, indicating that the factors of governance and auditor independence were more decisive than short-term financial conditions.

Putri Azizah Sahirah; Citra Ayni Kamaruddin; Sri Astuty; Regina Regina; Basri Bado

International Journal of Economics, Commerce, and Management 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Stocks represent a capital market instrument with the potential to generate high returns. When making investment decisions, investors typically assess various internal aspects of a company, including its financial performance. The objective of this study is to examine the influence of profitability, liquidity, and leverage ratios on stock prices in the Indonesian banking sector, with a particular focus on state-owned banks, in both partial and simultaneous regression models. The methodology employed is quantitative analysis, with a secondary data set being utilized. The sample was determined using a purposive sampling technique, covering four state-owned banks (BRI, BNI, Mandiri, and BTN) for the 2010-2024 period. The findings of the analysis demonstrate that profitability and leverage exert a substantial negative influence on the stock prices of these banking institutions, while the liquidity ratio does not demonstrate a significant effect. Concurrently, all three variables exert an influence on stock prices, with an R-squared value of 58%.

Azriel Ikmal Choiry Sulaiman

Repeater : Publikasi Teknik Informatika dan Jaringan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

The dynamic fluctuations in stock prices present a major challenge for investors in making informed decisions. To anticipate such uncertainties, forecasting methods that can provide accurate predictions are required. This study compares two time series forecasting methods Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt) in predicting the stock prices of PT Telkom Indonesia (TLKM). The dataset consists of monthly closing prices from January 2018 to December 2023. The performance of each model is evaluated using three error metrics: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that the ARIMA(1,1,1) model yields higher predictive accuracy than the Holt method, with MAE of 787.71, MSE of 771,844.2, and RMSE of 878.55. In contrast, the Holt method records a MAE of 837.19, MSE of 878,393.4, and RMSE of 937.23. These findings confirm that ARIMA is superior in capturing the complex patterns of stock price movements and is more effective in volatile market conditions such as the stock exchange.

Emilianus Eo Kutu Goo; Maria Dignata Sophina; Maria Marfani; Maria Vivilani; Markus Valentino Putra +1 more

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the development strategy of the Jeanete business, located in Maumere City, Jl.  Kesehatan No.  3, Lorong Masuk SDK Yos Sudarso, using the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) approach.  The research employs a descriptive qualitative method with data collected through observation, interviews, and documentation of the Jeanete business operations.  The results indicate that the main strengths of the business include affordable product prices, unique item variations, and increasing consumer interest in preloved products.  However, Jeanete also faces several weaknesses, such as dependence on supplies from outside the region, limited stock availability, and fluctuating bale prices.  On the other hand, opportunities include the growing trend of thrifting among young consumers and rising demand for environmentally friendly products.  The threats faced by the business involve increasing competition, shifting consumer preferences, and the risk of products not passing quality control.  Based on these findings, the development strategy for Jeanete should focus on improving product quality, strengthening digital promotion, and maintaining more stable supply management.

Devani Anas Tasya; Usep Syaipudin

Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the reaction of the Indonesian capital market to the announcement of Donald Trump’s import tariff policy using an event study approach. Market reactions are measured through abnormal return and trading volume activity of exporting companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), with an event window of three trading days before and three trading days after the initial tariff announcement on April 2, 2025 and the revised tariff announcement on July 15, 2025. This study employs secondary data in the form of daily stock prices and trading volumes, analyzed using descriptive statistics, normality tests, and the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The results indicate that the Indonesian capital market reacts to the announcement of Donald Trump’s import tariff policy, as reflected by differences in abnormal return and trading volume activity before and after the announcements, thereby supporting signaling theory and the semi-strong form of market efficiency.

Puspita Rama Nopiana; Fisna Mega Delima Laia; Santriati Bako

Jurnal Pengabdian dan Solidaritas Masyarakat 2026 Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

The management of material and labor costs at Gregors Barbershop is still manual and not formally structured, resulting in wastage of consumable materials, suboptimal labor utilization, and difficulties in determining service prices that align with the expected profit margins. Material costs, such as hair gel, tissues, disposable razors, and alcohol/disinfectants, are not recorded systematically, leading to frequent mismatches between stock and actual needs, while labor costs are calculated improvisationally without considering productivity and service targets. This activity aims to improve the ability of owners and employees to plan, control, and evaluate operational costs systematically, ensuring efficiency, resource optimization, and business profitability. The method uses an applied, hands-on approach, including the identification of partner needs, preparation of relevant training modules, direct operational mentoring, and evaluation with follow-up. The object of the activity is Gregors Barbershop in Batu Aji District, Batam City, which offers services such as modern men’s haircuts, classic shaves, shaving, hair treatments, and the sale of grooming products like pomade and hair oil. The results show increased efficiency in the use of consumable materials, more productive labor management, more systematic cost planning, and the ability to set service prices in line with costs and profit margins. It is recommended to implement a digital recording system and productivity-based incentives to ensure more accurate cost control, more efficient operations, and sustainable business profitability.

Ali Mahfud; Diana Puspitasari

Proceeding of the International Conference on Management, Entrepreneurship, and Business 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased public interest in investing, especially in the banking sector, which is known for its stability. However, many investors still lack an understanding of fundamental analysis. This study aims to examine the effect of Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Net Profit Margin (NPM) on stock prices of banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2011–2023 period. The research used a quantitative approach with purposive sampling and multiple linear regression analysis using SPSS. The results show that ROA has no significant effect on stock prices. In contrast, ROE has a significant negative effect, while NPM has a significant positive effect on stock prices. These findings indicate that investors tend to consider net profit margins more than asset efficiency, and that high ROE may be perceived as a signal of high leverage risk. This research is expected to provide insights for investors in assessing banking performance before making investment decisions.

Mayashita Ayunindya Safitri; Anna Sumaryati

Proceeding of the International Conference on Management, Entrepreneurship, and Business 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

The goal of this research is to explore the relationship between stock prices, liquidity, profitability, and leverage. This study focuses on transportation and logistics companies that were registered in the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2021 to 2023. A quantitative approach was taken, utilizing secondary data derived from the annual financial statements of companies that were active during this time frame. The sample comprised 45 data points, selected using a purposive sampling technique. The independent variables include leverage, measured with the Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), profitability, assessed through Return on Assets (ROA), and liquidity, evaluated via the Current Ratio (CR). The dependent variable for this research is the stock price. The findings from this partial analysis reveal that liquidity significantly and negatively impacts stock price, with a t-count of -2.264 and a significance level of 0.029. However, the correlation between stock price and profitability was found to be insignificant, indicated by a significance value of 0.071 and a t-count of -1.853. Similarly, leverage does not significantly affect stock price, as evidenced by a t-count of -0.657 and a significance level of 0.515. Nonetheless, when considered collectively, the three factors of leverage, profitability, and liquidity do influence stock prices. According to the coefficient of determination (R2) test, these three variables account for 13.9% of the volatility in stock prices, leaving the remaining 86.1% to be attributed to external factors not examined in this study.

Shakira Mayla Khairinisa; Dwiarso Utomo

Proceeding of the International Conference on Management, Entrepreneurship, and Business 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of the Current Ratio (CR), Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER), and Return on Equity (ROE) on the stock prices of healthcare companies classified as sharia-compliant on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2020–2024 period. The background of the study is motivated by notable stock price fluctuations among sharia healthcare issuers, such as the sharp decline in PT Kimia Farma Tbk and price dynamics of other issuers including KLBF, MIKA, PEHA, and SIDO. The analysis uses a quantitative approach applying Partial Least Squares – Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) implemented in WarpPLS 8.0. The results indicate that CR does not have a significant effect on stock price (p = 0.174), while DER has a negative but not statistically significant effect (p = 0.484). In contrast, ROE has a positive and significant effect on stock price (p < 0.001), making ROE the dominant factor influencing investor interest. Simultaneously, the three independent variables explain only 20.2% of stock price variation, while the remaining 79.8% is influenced by factors outside the research model. The Tenenhaus goodness of fit (GOF) value of 0.450 suggests the research model has good overall quality despite the limited explanatory power of the tested financial variables.

Dea Putri Maharani; Bara Zaretta

Proceeding of the International Conference on Management, Entrepreneurship, and Business 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study examines the impact of Market Value Added (MVA), Economic Value Added (EVA), and Financial Value Added (FVA) on stock returns in energy-sector mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during 2018–2023. A quantitative approach with multiple linear regression was applied to 23 purposively selected firms based on data availability. Secondary data were obtained from annual reports and stock prices published on the IDX website. The findings show that EVA has a significant effect on stock returns (p = 0.048 < 0.05), while MVA (0.075) and FVA (0.080) are not significant individually. However, the three variables collectively influence stock returns (p = 0.031 < 0.05). The adjusted R² of 0.396 indicates that 39.6% of return variability is explained by the model, with the rest influenced by other factors. Overall, EVA emerges as the key indicator for investors in evaluating return potential, while market-based measures such as MVA are less decisive, and historical value indicators (FVA) are less statistically relevant as predictors of stock returns. From a managerial perspective, firms are encouraged to focus on capital efficiency and sustainable economic value creation to enhance their investment appeal.