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Analytics

Elfira Annisa; Wahyu Indah Sari; Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty

The International Conference on Education, Social Sciences and Technology 2022 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This research to analyze the contribution of variables from three economic policies, with monetary policy through interest rate variables, exchange rates, and money supply in facing economic recession. Where the fiscal policy variable is through tax value. Then macroprudential policy through Non Performing Loan and Capital Adequacy Ratio variables. This study uses secondary data or time series, namely from December 2019 to February 2021. The data analysis model in this study is the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model which is seen from being sharpened with Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), Panel ARDL, and Different Tests. The results of the IRF analysis show that the stability of the response of all variables is formed in period 8 or the medium and long term, where the response of other variables to changes in one variable shows different variations, both from positive responses to negative responses or vice versa, and there are variables whose responses remain positive or remain negative from the short term to the long term. The results of the FEVD analysis show that for the short-term inflation variable it is influenced by inflation itself and in the medium and long term it is influenced by interest rates. For the JUB variable in the short term it is influenced by JUB itself and in the medium and long term it is influenced by NPL. For the interest rate variable in the short term it is influenced by JUB while in the medium and long term it is influenced by the exchange rate itself and CAR. For the tax variable in the short, medium and long term it is influenced by the tax itself and JUB. For the NPL variable in the short, medium and long term it is influenced by JUB and tax. For the CAR variable in the short, medium and long term it is influenced by JUB and tax. Then the results of the ARDL Panel analysis show that the country that is able to become a leading indicator in controlling the economic recession in the Four of The Group Twenty, namely Turkey, is only done by interest rates. While South Africa is done by interest rates, taxes, NPL, and CAR. For Russia, it is done by all variables, namely the amount of money in circulation, interest rates, exchange rates, taxes, NPL, and CAR. Meanwhile, Indonesia is carried out by exchange rates, taxes, NPL and CAR.

Naufal Nur Wibowo

Wawasan : Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, Ekonomi dan Kewirausahan 2022 Fakultas Teknik Universitas Maritim AMNI Semarang

The aim of this study is to analyze and measure the factors affecting Indonesia's economic growth rate by focusing on a number of factors, such as the human development index and inflation. The study use eviews10 software with its fixed effect model (fem) to see its enormous value of determinations and correlation between non-monetary variables and variables. The data studied came from the statistical central body in Indonesia, as well as several literature studies ranging from 2017 to 2021. From research and theoretical studies itis concluded that in 2017-2021 there is no effect between the human development index and inflation and economic growth in Indonesia.  

Rusiadi, Rusiadi; Ade Novalina; Bhaktiar Effendi; Anita N Hutasoit

Proceeding of The International Conference on Economics and Business 2022 Universitas Kristen Indonesia Toraja

The financial system plays an important role in the economy. An unstable financial system will be vulnerable to various problems that disrupt the rotation of a country's economy and be vulnerable to economic problems such as the global crisis in various countries. The problem that occurs is the occurrence of Covid-19 causing various fluctuations in the level of inflation, money supply, imports, the occurrence of unstable inflation from January 2019 to August 2021, low inflation resulting in a decrease in imports and an increase in the money supply in Mexico. , Vietnam, Philippines, Hongkong, Indonesia, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore, Peru, and China. The analytical method in this study uses the ARDL Panel (Autoregression Distributed Lag) approach. The ARDL Panel Model determines which country models from APEC countries are able to control long-term financial system-based economic fundamentals in Mexico, Vietnam, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore, Peru, and China and the Different Test for modeling the impact of covid-19 19 on the economic fundamentals of the financial system. The results of the research found the ARDL Panel prediction model in modeling the impact of Covid-19 on economic fundamentals in the financial system. The main Leading Indicator of variable effectiveness in controlling Inflation In TAPEC is JUB where Vietnam, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Peru and China have a significant influence in controlling Inflation. Then overall in the long term (Long Run) it turns out that only the JUB and CDV variables have an effect on INF In TAPEC, while in the short term (Short Run) it is JUB that influences Inflation In TAPEC.  

Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty; Bakhtiar Efendi; Antonius Gulo

Proceeding of The International Conference on Economics and Business 2022 Universitas Kristen Indonesia Toraja

This study aims to analyze the contributions of the variable interactions of monetary policy in the stability of goods and services prices. Where is the monetary  policy variable (inflation, kurs, consumer price index, gross domestic products, the money supply, and interest rates). Research in conducted in the country of Indonesia and uses secondary data or time series from 2008 to 2021. The data analysis model in this study is Simultaneous Model. Simultaneous equations to analyze the relation between independent and variable variables found in the research country. Simultaneous analysis of equations on statistical test common equation 1 suggests that variable interest rates, money distribution, exchange rates and consumer price indexes have significant adverse effects on the inflation. Whereas in the same equation 2, it suggests that gross domestic product variables have a positive relationship that is significant to the ihk. And inflation has a negative relationship significantly insignificant to consumer price index. For this reason, the researcher hopes that the monetary authority, namely Bank Indonesia, can improve monetary stability and maintain the BI rate in regulating the money supply so that it can suppress the inflation rate as an effort to stabilize the prices.