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Analytics

Pudjo Irianto; Heri Sasono

Kolaborasi : Jurnal Hasil Kegiatan Kolaborasi Pengabdian Masyarakat 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic variables in the form of the dollar exchange rate, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) in Indonesia for the period 2010–2024. The research method used is a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis using time series data obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The data analysis technique was carried out through classical assumption tests and hypothesis testing to determine the relationship between variables. The results of the study show that partially GDP has a significant effect on the JCI, while inflation and the dollar exchange rate tend not to have a significant effect. However, simultaneously these three variables have a significant influence on the JCI. These findings show that macroeconomic stability is very important in maintaining the performance of the capital market in Indonesia and can be a reference for investors in making investment decisions. In addition, the results of the study confirm that national economic growth is the main indicator that market participants pay attention to in assessing investment prospects. Therefore, the government needs to maintain economic stability through effective and sustainable fiscal and monetary policies.

Putri Rini Situmeang; Bismar Arianto; Rizky Octa Putri Charin

Desentralisasi : Jurnal Hukum, Kebijakan Publik, dan Pemerintahan 2025 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

Batam City, as an industrial hub in the Riau Islands Province, plays a vital role in the region’s economic growth. However, a surge in inflation can affect investment interest, as investors tend to avoid areas with economic uncertainty. One of the main contributors to inflation in Batam is the food component, which experiences high demand, especially during certain periods such as religious holidays and the arrival of international tourists. Batam, which is not a food-producing area, faces significant challenges in meeting agricultural needs and currently remains dependent on supplies from outside the region. Geographic constraints, such as inefficient logistics, weather disruptions, and institutional weaknesses in the food sector, further aggravate inflation control efforts. In addition, hilly terrain and less fertile land limit the types of crops that can be cultivated, making food price stability critically important. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Low-Cost Market Operation Team Program (Tim Operasi Pasar Murah) in Batam City in 2024. The method used is Sequential Explanatory Design with a mixed-methods approach. Quantitative findings indicate that the average success rate of the program is 85.93%, with a target achievement rate of 90.12% and a satisfaction level of 86.11%. Qualitative results suggest that the policy of conducting low-cost market operations has been appropriate and carried out by authorized institutions, with strong collaboration between the government and the private sector. The program has succeeded in maintaining price stability ahead of the fasting month and Eid al-Fitr, receiving positive responses from the community and demonstrating good internal coordination. In conclusion, the low-cost market operation program in Batam City has been effective in curbing inflation before the fasting month and Eid al-Fitr. However, for comprehensive inflation control, relying solely on this program is insufficient. Additional strategies are needed to ensure sustainable food price stability.

A. Junaedi Karso

Law and Justice research journal 2025 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

The war between India and Pakistan has had a devastating impact on the economies of both the countries directly involved and those indirectly affected. The economic impacts of this armed conflict include significant infrastructure damage, reduced production capacity, soaring inflation, rising unemployment, and reduced investment flows. This geopolitical instability has also fueled uncertainty in global financial markets, triggering a "flight to safety" phenomenon, a shift in capital and investment to countries or instruments perceived as safer, such as US government bonds or gold. For Indonesia, this situation has the potential to significantly disrupt national economic stability. One impact is a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, as investors tend to hold back or relocate their investments to more geopolitically stable countries. Furthermore, pressure on the rupiah exchange rate could increase due to global financial market volatility and a decline in international investor confidence. The conflict could also hamper Indonesia's export traffic, particularly to countries with close trade ties with India and Pakistan. Furthermore, these tensions could disrupt global supply chains, particularly for energy and food commodities, many of which pass through strategic trade routes. If the conflict drags on, the price of crude oil and other raw materials could potentially rise sharply, which in turn would increase domestic production costs. This would have a direct impact on inflation and public purchasing power. This situation further complicates the management of Indonesia's monetary and fiscal policies, which currently face significant challenges, such as the imminent maturities of large government debt and a still-widening state budget deficit. The government must take strategic steps to maintain domestic economic stability, strengthen foreign exchange reserves, and encourage export market diversification to reduce over-reliance on conflict-prone countries.

A. Junaedi Karso

International Journal of Law and Civil Affairs 2025 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

The potential war between India and Pakistan poses significant risks to the Indonesian economy, as it is expected to exacerbate uncertainty in the global financial market. Such geopolitical tensions often trigger a ‘flight to safety,’ where capital flows shift to countries considered stable, leading to reduced foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging markets like Indonesia. This scenario is likely to place additional pressure on Indonesia’s exchange rate, further destabilizing its financial position. One of the key impacts of the looming India-Pakistan war on Indonesia is its effect on monetary and fiscal management. The Indonesian government is already facing significant challenges, including managing a large amount of maturing debt and grappling with a growing budget deficit. The war would complicate these efforts, making it more difficult for the government to stabilize the economy and implement effective policies. Indonesia’s export sector will also be affected, as India and Pakistan are two of the country’s main trading partners, especially for key commodities like crude palm oil (CPO) and coal. India is Indonesia’s 4th largest export destination, accounting for approximately 9% of total exports, while Pakistan represents around 1.9%. Any disruption in trade with these countries, due to the war or political instability, could significantly hurt Indonesia’s export revenues and negatively affect industries reliant on these markets. Moreover, Indonesia is already facing challenges from the United States, which has imposed reciprocal tariffs worth 32% on Indonesian products. This trade tension, combined with the geopolitical instability from the India-Pakistan conflict, will add further strain to Indonesia’s trade balance. The combination of these factors could lead to slower economic growth, reduced investor confidence, and potentially higher inflation, as the country faces multiple external and internal economic pressures.

A. Junaedi Karso

IJLS (International Journal of Law and Society) 2025 Asosiasi Penelitian dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

The reciprocal tariff policy has a significant impact on a number of countries, including Indonesia. In this scheme, Indonesian non-oil and gas products are subject to a tariff of 32% when entering the US market. Such a high tariff places Indonesian exporters in a less competitive position compared to other countries that have more favorable trade arrangements with the United States. This condition becomes more complex when viewed in the broader context of the US-EU trade war, which creates uncertainty and turbulence in the global economy. Indonesian exports are affected both directly and indirectly. Indirect impacts can be seen from disruptions to the global supply chain, the slowdown in the world economy, and decreased global demand. As global production networks become increasingly interconnected, any disruption in major economies will ultimately suppress demand for Indonesian export commodities. This means that even if Indonesian products are not directly targeted, the ripple effects of global trade tensions will still hinder Indonesia’s export performance. For instance, reduced consumption in Europe and the US due to rising product prices and inflation will diminish market opportunities for Indonesian goods.On the other hand, direct impacts arise because several Indonesian products have been explicitly subjected to tariffs by the US government. These include textiles and textile products (TPT), electronics and their components, footwear, furniture, and palm oil (crude palm oil/CPO). Such tariffs significantly reduce Indonesia’s competitiveness in the US market, potentially leading to decreased export volumes, lower revenues for domestic industries, and job losses in export-oriented sectors. Furthermore, the policy also makes European products much more expensive in the US market, which worsens the global supply chain, increases logistics costs, triggers inflation, and escalates uncertainty in international trade.

Aisyah Aulia; Siti Maisaroh; Assyfa Futri Ananta; Wahjoe Pangestoeti

Jurnal Ilmu Pertahanan, Politik dan Hukum Indonesia 2025 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

This study examines the impact of the 12% VAT increase on state revenue and societal welfare in Indonesia. The research aims to analyze how the policy affects economic indicators such as inflation, purchasing power, and fiscal stability. A qualitative method with a systematic literature review approach was employed, utilizing data from scholarly articles, online news, and related journals. Findings indicate that the VAT increase contributes to a 0.8–1% rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and significantly affects secondary and tertiary goods, while essential goods remain exempt. The policy is expected to enhance state revenue, enabling greater fiscal space for social and infrastructure programs. However, it also raises concerns about reduced purchasing power, particularly among low-income groups. The study suggests implementing compensatory mechanisms and targeted subsidies to mitigate adverse effects. This research underscores the importance of balancing fiscal goals with social equity.

Dewi Yanti; Junita Mawartina; Heti Sarlini; Wahjoe Pangestoeti

Jurnal Hukum, Administrasi Publik dan Negara 2025 Asosiasi Peneliti Dan Pengajar Ilmu Sosial Indonesia

The mechanism of state debt management is a process involving fiscal and monetary policies to regulate the issuance, use, and repayment of state debt. In its management, the government usually uses instruments such as bonds, bilateral loans, and multilateral loans to finance the budget deficit. State debt can be used to fund infrastructure projects, health, education, and other important sectors, but its management must be careful so as not to burden the economy. One important aspect of debt management is maintaining the debt ratio to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) so that it remains under control. If state debt increases significantly without being balanced by economic growth, it can pose a risk of inflation, a larger budget deficit, and a reduction in market confidence in the government's ability to repay debt. On the other hand, good debt management can encourage economic growth by financing productive projects that increase competitiveness and public welfare. Strict supervision of debt allocation and transparency in the use of funds are essential to avoid misuse and increase the effectiveness of debt management. In addition, the role of international institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank is also crucial in providing technical advice and support for sustainable debt management policies.

Purnomo Purnomo; Zainal Arifin Hosein

Desentralisasi : Jurnal Hukum, Kebijakan Publik, dan Pemerintahan 2025 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

This study discusses the effectiveness of implementing administrative sanctions to overcome fraud practices by health facilities against National Health Insurance (JKN) participants in Indonesia. Fraud practices involving claim manipulation, bill inflation, and falsification of diagnoses result in losses for JKN participants and reduce the quality of health services. This study identifies challenges in supervision, regulatory weaknesses, and obstacles in law enforcement that affect the effectiveness of the administrative sanctions imposed. Based on the analysis, this study recommends regulatory reforms that include the implementation of stricter sanctions, strengthening supervision with information technology, and increasing outreach programs to raise awareness of the impacts of fraud. It is expected that with this reform, the JKN system can run more effectively and reduce fraud practices that are detrimental to all parties.