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This study analyzes the economic phenomenon known as the "Purbaya Effect" in the Indonesian capital market during the second half of 2025. This phenomenon is characterized by a significant surge in the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), which broke the All-Time High (ATH) record 21 times within four months following the appointment of Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa as Minister of Finance. Using a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative market data analysis and qualitative policy review, this research finds that the "Purbaya Effect" is driven by aggressive liquidity injection policies (Rp 200 trillion), institutional trust built during his tenure at LPS, and strong narrative economics. However, this study also identifies significant risks related to exchange rate volatility and potential economic overheating. The findings suggest that while the "Purbaya Effect" successfully restored short-term investor confidence, long-term sustainability depends on the balance between growth acceleration and macroeconomic stability.

Each country has different holiday policies, but the number of holidays in Indonesia is quite large, which impacts uncertainty for investors when buying or selling shares. These events can cause market anomalies or irregular market conditions and produce abnormal returns at certain times, known as the holiday effect. This study uses a quantitative descriptive method with an event study approach, data collection is carried out using documentation and literature methods. The data used are secondary data in the form of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), the LQ45 Index, and the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) from the official website of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Exchange rate data is taken from the official website of Bank Indonesia. The population of this study is every company listed on the IDX, while the data used are JCI, LQ45, and JII data 6 days before and 6 days after the Eid al-Fitr holiday and regular trading days from 2011-2025. The results of the study show that there is no significant difference in the JCI, LQ45 Index, or JII before and after the Eid al-Fitr holiday, so there is no holiday effect. These results indicate that all three indices reflect a market that tends to be efficient and stable in responding to seasonal events. Furthermore, the Rupiah exchange rate had a negative but significant effect on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). The Rupiah exchange rate had a negative but insignificant effect on the JII before and after the Eid al-Fitr holiday. The Rupiah exchange rate had a positive but insignificant effect on the LQ45 Index before and after the Eid al-Fitr holiday.

Corn production in the provinces of East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) and West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) exhibits dynamics influenced by agro-climatic factors, the utilization of production facilities, and the welfare condition of the farmers. This study aims to analyze the impact of rainfall, solar radiation, and production inputs on corn productivity; to explain the relationship between production changes and the Farmer’s Exchange Rate (NTP) as a welfare indicator; and to evaluate the contribution of the corn subsector to the agricultural Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The research method uses a descriptive-quantitative approach based on BPS data and official local government documents. The results indicate that NTB has more stable productivity due to relatively even rainfall and better support for production facilities, whereas NTT faces higher production fluctuations due to greater climate variability. Furthermore, the NTP in NTB tends to be better than in NTT, aligning with the stability of its productivity. Corn contributes significantly to the agricultural GRDP in both provinces, particularly in central production areas such as Dompu and Bima. Policy implications include the necessity for strengthening post-harvest infrastructure, more equitable input distribution, and climate adaptation strategies in drought-prone areas. The findings provide an empirical basis for sustainable productivity improvement and farmer welfare policies.

This study examines the factors influencing Indonesia’s motor vehicle exports to nine developing countries using the gravity model approach with long-term and short-term panel data. The variables analyzed include the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of partner countries, exchange rates, economic distance, and trade cooperation agreements. The data are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture short-term dynamics and long-term relationships. The long-term results show that partner countries’ GDP has a significant positive effect on Indonesia’s vehicle exports, indicating that economic growth in partner countries increases demand for Indonesian automotive products. Conversely, exchange rates and economic distance have significant negative effects, suggesting that depreciation of partner currencies and economic disparities reduce export volumes. Trade cooperation agreements do not have a significant impact in the long term. In the short term, changes in GDP continue to have a significant positive effect, while exchange rates maintain a significant negative impact on exports. Economic distance and trade agreements are not significant in the short term. The significant and negative error correction term (ECT) confirms the existence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-term equilibrium. This study highlights the importance of partner countries’ economic growth and exchange rate stability in supporting Indonesia’s vehicle exports to developing countries, as well as the need to address structural barriers to improve long-term competitiveness.

Economic growth is the process of increasing a country's production capacity to generate goods and services over a specific period, reflecting the income and well-being of its people. This research aims to analyse the influence of labor, exchange rates, and exports on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the manufacturing sector in Indonesia during the period 2010-2024. The method used is multiple linear regression analysis with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach, using secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). The research results indicate that all three independent variables, namely labor, exchange rate, and exports, have a positive and significant impact on the GDP of the manufacturing sector, both partially and simultaneously. The coefficient of determination (Adjusted R2) value of 0.9633 indicates that 96.33% of the variation in industrial sector GDP can be explained by these three variables, while 3.76% is influenced by factors outside the model. This research confirms that increased labour productivity, exchange rate stability, and export growth play an important role in strengthening the performance of the manufacturing sector in Indonesia. Therefore, policies focused on improving the quality of human resources, strengthening export competitiveness, and ensuring macroeconomic stability are needed to support the sustainable and globally competitive growth of the manufacturing sector.

This research aims to examine the effect of profit optimization on market reaction and the mediating role of tax avoidance in this relationship among insurance sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2020–2023 period. Profit optimization is proxied by Return on Assets, market reaction by stock returns, and tax avoidance by the Effective Tax Rate. This research employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the financial statements of 17 insurance sub-sector companies, with a final sample of 10 companies selected through purposive sampling. Data analysis was conducted using classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression, and path analysis. The results indicate that profit optimization has a positive and significant effect on tax avoidance. However, tax avoidance does not influence market reaction, and profit optimization also does not have a direct effect on market reaction. Furthermore, tax avoidance is able to mediate the effect of profit optimization on market reaction. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of how earnings information quality, taxation strategies, and investor responses interact in shaping capital market dynamics within the insurance industry. The findings also provide a foundation for future research to explore external factors that may influence these relationships, offering additional academic value for strengthening subsequent studies.

Economic development strategies play a crucial role in achieving sustainable growth through increased national productivity and equitable welfare distribution. The stability of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, exchange rates, and gross domestic product growth reflects the effectiveness of government development policies. This study aims to analyze the relationship between economic development strategies and macroeconomic equilibrium in Indonesia by examining the interconnection between the product market and the money market. The research adopts a qualitative approach using literature studies derived from scholarly journals, academic articles, and economic publications obtained from Google Scholar and other credible sources. The findings indicate that maintaining balance between the product market and the money market contributes significantly to national economic stability. A well-coordinated synergy between fiscal and monetary policies is essential to preserve macroeconomic stability and ensure that economic development progresses inclusively and sustainably amid global challenges.

Indonesia's tax ratio remains below the 15 percent threshold recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reflecting a significant gap in tax revenue collection. This low ratio may indicate the presence of aggressive tax planning strategies, including tax avoidance practices, particularly among multinational enterprises. This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between multinationality, transfer pricing aggressiveness, and the use of tax havens on tax avoidance. The research focuses on manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2019–2023. A total of 64 companies were selected as samples through purposive sampling based on specific criteria, including the availability of relevant financial data and disclosure of international operations. The variables analyzed include the degree of multinationality, transfer pricing aggressiveness as proxied by related party transactions, and involvement with tax haven jurisdictions. The dependent variable, tax avoidance, is measured using the effective tax rate (ETR) approach. Data were processed and analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis with the aid of STATA version 17. The findings of the study reveal that multinationality and transfer pricing aggressiveness do not have a significant relationship with tax avoidance. In contrast, the use of tax haven countries is positively associated with tax avoidance, suggesting that firms utilizing tax havens are more likely to engage in practices that reduce their tax liabilities. These results have implications for tax authorities in identifying and addressing high-risk corporate behaviors related to offshore financial structures. The study contributes to the literature on international taxation by providing empirical evidence from a developing country context.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of interest rates and economic growth on stock returns in companies in the energy sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2019 to 2023. The method used is a quantitative approach with panel data regression analysis. The study population includes 90 company data from the sector. The sample was determined through a purposive sampling method, resulting in 46 companies that meet the established criteria. The results of the study indicate that interest rates have a significant effect on stock returns, while economic growth also shows a significant effect.

This study aims to determine and analyze the development and influence of exports, exchange rates, inflation, and GRDP on the exchange rate of smallholder plantation farmers in Jambi Province. This study uses multiple linear regression analysis for the period 2009-2024 in Jambi Province. The development of exports, exchange rates, inflation, and GRDP fluctuates annually. Where the average development of exports in Jambi Province in 2009-2024 was 15.22%, the average development of exchange rates was 3.06%, the average development of inflation was 49.07%, the average development of GRDP was 6.22% and the average development of the exchange rate of smallholder plantation farmers in Jambi Province was 4.57%. The results of the study using multiple linear regression resulted in the finding that the variables of exports, exchange rates, inflation, and GRDP simultaneously influenced the exchange rate of smallholder plantation farmers in Jambi Province in 2009-2024. Meanwhile, partially, the export, exchange rate, and inflation variables have a negative effect on the exchange rate of farmers in the smallholder plantation sub-sector in Jambi Province, while the GRDP variable has a substantial positive effect on the exchange rate of farmers in the smallholder plantation sub-sector in Jambi Province in 2009-2024.

This study aims to determine the effect of interest rates and inflation on the profitability of property and real estate sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2020-2024. Profitability is measured using the Return on Assets (ROA) ratio, while interest rates refer to the BI-7 Day Reverse Repo Rate and inflation is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Bank Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis methods and classical assumption tests supported by data processing using SPSS version 27 software. The sample was selected using purposive sampling techniques with criteria of companies that consistently submit annual financial reports, do not record losses during the research period, and use the Rupiah currency. The research results indicate that partially, interest rates have a positive and significant effect on profitability, while inflation does not have a significant effect on profitability. However, simultaneously, interest rates and inflation together have a significant effect on the company's profitability. These findings are expected to serve as a strategic reference for companies in formulating financial policies to maintain profitability stability amidst macroeconomic dynamics.

This study aims to compare and analyze the accuracy levels of four financial distress prediction models—Altman Z-Score, Springate, Grover, and Zmijewski—in anticipating the potential bankruptcy of companies subjected to delisting from the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). The delisting phenomenon, which is strongly linked to severe financial deterioration, provided the core motivation for identifying the most reliable predictive instrument, utilizing secondary data from the annual financial reports of delisted companies during the 2019-2023 observation period. Descriptive analysis techniques were employed to calculate the accuracy rate and Type Error for each model. The comparative results consistently indicate that the Springate Model is the most effective, consistent, and accurate model for predicting financial distress in delisted firms, achieving an accuracy rate of 89% in both the first and second years prior to delisting, while the Altman Z-Score model exhibited lower accuracy (68.75% and 62.50%). This key finding emphasizes the superiority of the Springate Model as a crucial diagnostic tool for investors and regulatory bodies in assessing corporate bankruptcy risk.

The digital economy has significantly transformed economic growth by introducing innovations in payment systems and financial services. The modernization of payment instruments through monetary policy has enhanced the ability to control inflation and ensure financial system stability. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy and the utilization of the digital economy in maintaining financial stability in Indonesia. Using time series data from 2010 to 2024 obtained from the World Bank, this research applies the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method to examine both short-term and long-term relationships among variables, including e-money, money supply, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and credit card usage. The results show that e-money has a significant reciprocal influence on the money supply, while inflation is also affected by e-money and interest rates. The impulse response function demonstrates that the interactions among these variables tend to converge towards equilibrium over time. Variance decomposition analysis indicates that in the short term, e-money primarily drives financial stability, whereas in the medium and long term, the money supply plays a dominant role. Overall, the findings suggest that monetary policy, supported by digital economic systems, effectively enhances financial system stability in Indonesia. This research contributes to understanding the dual effect of digital payment innovations and provides recommendations for policymakers to strengthen financial inclusion, economic resilience, and macro-financial stability in the digital era.

This study aims to examine the effect of Thin Capitalization, Sales Growth, and Capital Intensity on Tax Avoidance, with Institutional Ownership as a moderating variable in coal sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2019–2023 period. The background of this study is based on the importance of tax management as a company efficiency strategy, while maintaining compliance with tax regulations. The coal industry was chosen because of its capital-intensive characteristics, fluctuating sales growth rates, and the tendency of companies to engage in aggressive tax planning. The research method uses a quantitative approach with a purposive sampling technique, resulting in 50 company samples during the observation period. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression with the help of E-Views 13 software to test the direct relationship between variables, and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) to test the role of Institutional Ownership as a moderating variable. The results show that Thin Capitalization has no significant effect on Tax Avoidance, which indicates that high debt ratios are not always utilized by companies to reduce tax burdens. Capital Intensity also had no significant effect on Tax Avoidance, indicating that the size of fixed asset investments does not directly influence tax avoidance practices. Conversely, Sales Growth had a significant positive effect on Tax Avoidance, indicating that high sales growth tends to encourage companies to optimize tax-saving strategies. Furthermore, the results of the moderation test revealed that Institutional Ownership did not moderate the relationship between Thin Capitalization, Sales Growth, or Capital Intensity on Tax Avoidance. This finding suggests that the supervisory role of institutional shareholders is ineffective in limiting or influencing tax avoidance strategies in coal companies. This research provides implications for regulators and investors to consider non-financial factors and governance mechanisms in efforts to control tax avoidance practices in strategic sectors like coal.

Macroeconomic uncertainty poses a structural challenge for the sustainability of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia. Fluctuations in inflation, benchmark interest rates, and exchange rates have a direct impact on liquidity, cost structures, and investment decisions. This study aims to explore the types of financial strategies adopted by MSMEs in response to macroeconomic pressures using a systematic literature review and secondary data analysis covering the period from 2019 to May 2024. Data were sourced from official national institutions, including the Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Cooperatives and MSMEs, as well as relevant academic literature. The findings reveal that MSME financial strategies can be categorized into three key domains: cash management, cost control, and investment planning. MSMEs employing flexible strategies—such as increasing cash buffers, reducing operational costs, and diversifying products or financing sources—demonstrate higher resilience in the face of economic volatility. This study contributes theoretically by enriching the framework of financial adaptation for MSMEs and practically by informing financial literacy programs and policy design. The study also acknowledges limitations in the use of aggregate secondary data and recommends that future research adopt a mixed-method approach to capture undocumented informal financial practices at the grassroots level

The objective of this study is to examine whether the macroeconomic variables Exchange Rate, Money Supply (M2), and the international stock indices Dow Jones Islamic Market (DJIM) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have an influence on the movement of Sharia stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia (Jakarta Islamic Index and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index). The analytical method used in this research is multiple regression analysis. The data utilized are monthly data spanning the period from January 2015 to December 2024. The results of the study indicate that the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) is significantly influenced by the Exchange Rate and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Specifically, both the Exchange Rate and DJIA show effects that are consistent with the hypothesis expectations. The Exchange Rate has a negative and significant effect on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII), while the DJIA has a positive and significant effect. Meanwhile, the Money Supply (M2) and the Dow Jones Islamic Market (DJIM) are not found to have a significant effect on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI), on the other hand, is significantly influenced by the Dow Jones Islamic Market (DJIM). Specifically, DJIM has a positive and significant effect on FHSI. Conversely, the Exchange Rate, Money Supply (M2), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are not found to have a significant effect on the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI).

This study aims to analyze the comparison of solvency levels and claim payment abilities between two general insurance companies in Indonesia, PT Asuransi Dayin Mitra Tbk (ASDM) and PT Asuransi Jasa Tania Tbk (ASJT), considering the macroeconomic conditions in 2023. The methods used are qualitative and quantitative comparative analyses based on the audited financial statements and annual reports of both companies, as well as a review of macroeconomic data from official sources. The findings indicate that ASDM and ASJT managed to achieve positive performance despite economic challenges, with ASJT recording higher growth in premiums and net income. Both companies maintained solvency ratios above regulatory thresholds and controlled claims ratios. Business strategy adaptation, sound governance, and effective risk management contributed to these achievements. Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates were found to influence the performance of both companies, with varying levels of sensitivity depending on their market segment focus. These findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the insurance business in Indonesia and highlight opportunities and challenges that industry stakeholders need to anticipate..

The purpose of this study is to examine how the growth of digital payment systems has affected Indonesia's financial system and rupiah stability. More people are using digital payment methods like e-money, credit cards, debit cards, RTGS, and QRIS as a result of technical advancements. Additionally, Bank Indonesia still encourages the adoption of digital payment methods to speed up, secure, and streamline transactions. The Two Stage Least Squares (TSLS) method is used in this study's simultaneous regression model, which employs secondary data from 2020 to 2024. The findings indicate that while inflation has a positive but negligible impact on the exchange rate, the use of credit cards and RTGS has a considerable positive impact. In the meantime, debit cards and e-money significantly reduce inflation. Inflation is significantly reduced by QRIS and the exchange rate. In order to maintain Indonesia's economic stability, it is crucial to keep enhancing literacy and security when using digital payment methods.

This study examines the dilemma of rice import policy in Indonesia within the context of international trade and food security challenges. Rice, as a strategic commodity, holds significant social, economic, and political value, making import policies highly influential on price stability, farmers’ welfare, and national food security. The research identifies that import policies are often misaligned with domestic needs due to weak inter-institutional coordination, data inaccuracies, and pressures from political and business interests. As a result, import policies frequently create imbalances between the interests of consumers, traders, and local farmers, while also reducing the competitiveness of domestic rice due to inefficiencies in the distribution chain and post-harvest infrastructure. This study emphasizes the importance of data-based, transparent, and farmer-protective governance of rice import policies to strengthen national food security amid global trade liberalization pressures. hain, trade liberalization.

The purpose of this research is to examine the variables that affect stock prices in the commerce and service and consumer products industries that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.  This research study is quantitative in nature.  The information was taken from annual and financial reports that were posted on the websites of the individual companies as well as the Indonesia Stock Exchange's official website (www.idx.co.id).  The population consists of all 137 consumer products, commerce, and service businesses that were listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange between 2009 and 2013.  Seventy-seven businesses satisfied the sample requirements based on preset criteria.  Multiple linear regression analysis was used to examine the data.  The findings demonstrate that the three sets of variables—systematic risk, macroeconomic indicators, and firm fundamentals—all significantly and favorably affect stock prices at the same time.  Stock prices are positively and significantly impacted by the following factors, in part: Return on Equity (ROE), Earnings per Share (EPS), Book Value (BV), Net Profit Margin (NPM), and inflation.  In contrast, the market beta, GDP, exchange rate, and BI rate have no discernible effects, but the debt to equity ratio (DER) has a negative and substantial influence.  With an Adjusted R Square value of 62.4%, the study's independent variables may account for a significant portion of stock price fluctuations, with additional factors outside the model influencing the remaining 37.6%.