Publication Search

This study examines the determinants of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) based on three main macroeconomic factors namely inflation, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the SBI interest rate (BI Rate) covering the period January 2020 to December 2025, in the context of post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery and global economic turmoil. A quantitative approach was employed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, with 72 monthly observations derived from secondary data sourced from official institutions including Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Classical assumption tests were applied comprising the Jarque-Bera normality test, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for multicollinearity, Breusch-Godfrey for autocorrelation, White Test for heteroscedasticity, and Ramsey RESET for model specification. Partially, inflation, exchange rate, and BI Rate each demonstrate a positive and significant effect on the JCI (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, all three variables exert a significant combined influence on the JCI, with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.4414, indicating that the model explains 44.14% of the variation in the JCI. The remaining 55.86% is attributed to other variables outside the model. Classical assumption test results reveal violations of normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity assumptions, although the model is free from multicollinearity. These findings confirm that Bank Indonesia's monetary policy has a significant and measurable impact on capital market performance. Further research is recommended using more advanced time series models such as GARCH or VECM to address violations of classical assumptions and improve estimation efficiency.

This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation in Indonesia during the period 1994–2023 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The data used are monthly time series secondary data obtained from the World Bank. The Johansen cointegration test results indicate a long-term relationship among the three variables. However, the Granger causality test finds no significant short-term causal relationship. The VECM estimation reveals that inflation is the most responsive variable in correcting long-term disequilibrium, while the exchange rate plays a dominant role in influencing both inflation and interest rates. The Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition results indicate that these variables interact dynamically, especially in the medium to long term. These findings highlight the importance of exchange rate stabilization and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy to maintain macroeconomic stability in Indonesia.

This research aims to investigate whether the exchange rates and inflation in Iraq have a long-term equilibrium relationship or not. A dataset of exchange rates and inflation from 2000 to 2020 was used. Johansen’s cointegration test was employed to confirm that there is a long-term correlation between these variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was utilized, along with Granger causality tests, to understand the long and short run connections and to determine if the causality flow is bidirectional or unidirectional. The results provided proof of a long-run equilibrium connection among inflation and rates of exchange, with strong evidence of a unidirectional causal flow from rates of exchange to inflation in Iraq.

This study aims to determine the influence of the Influence of Money Supply, Inflation and Rupiah Exchange Rate on Murabahah Financing Margin in Indonesia Sharia Banks throughout Indonesia from 2013-2022. The type of research conducted is quantitative research. The method used in this study used the analysis of the Vector Auto Regression model of the VECM model and a data tool processed using Eviews 10. The data used is secondary data taken through the official website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for a period of 10 (ten) years from 2013-2022. Based on the results of the study, it is known that the results of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) test of this study show that only the variables of the Money Supply and the Rupiah Exchange Rate have a positive and significant impact, while the influence of the Inflation variable on Murabahah Financing Margin (Case Study of Bank Syariah Indonesia in 2013-2022) in the short term has a positive and insignificant impact. The Effect of Money Supply and Inflation on Murabahah Financing Margin has a positive and significant impact, while the influence of the Rupiah Exchange Rate variable on Murabahah Financing Margin in the long term has a negative and insignificant impact.