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Analytics

Dewi, Nila Sari; Jayantika; Joice Lwisa Nababan; Ryan Chandra Dalimunthe

This study examines the influence of interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate on the money supply in Indonesia during the 2023–2025 period. A quantitative research approach was employed using monthly secondary data obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). The data were analyzed through multiple linear regression with the assistance of SPSS software. Several statistical procedures were applied, including classical assumption tests, partial significance tests (t-tests), simultaneous significance tests (F-tests), and coefficient of determination (R²) analysis. The findings reveal that interest rates have a significant negative effect on the money supply, while the rupiah exchange rate exerts a significant positive influence. Furthermore, the simultaneous test indicates that both variables collectively have a significant impact on the money supply. The coefficient of determination shows that 85.4% of the variation in the money supply can be explained by changes in interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate. These results highlight the importance of maintaining stable interest rates and exchange rates as essential components of monetary policy aimed at regulating the money supply and preserving monetary stability in Indonesia.

Muhammad Pikar; M. Radityatama; Rian Fransisco; Agiel Pranata; Winstoon Yordan

Akuntansi Pajak dan Kebijakan Ekonomi Digital 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to examine the effect of working capital efficiency and leverage on profitability and its implications for firm value in manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2020–2025 period. The post-COVID-19 pandemic condition has increased operational risks for manufacturing companies due to fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, cash management, inventories, and receivables. Therefore, companies are required to implement more effective financial strategies to maintain competitiveness. Profitability is positioned as an intervening variable because previous studies showed inconsistent results regarding the relationship between working capital efficiency, leverage, profitability, and firm value. This research uses a quantitative approach with path analysis to examine direct and indirect relationships among variables. The population consists of all manufacturing companies listed on the IDX, while the sample includes 45 companies selected from 270 firms using purposive sampling based on specific criteria, such as consistent listing and financial performance. The results indicate that working capital efficiency has a significant positive effect on profitability, leverage has a significant negative effect on profitability, profitability significantly increases firm value, and profitability fully mediates the effect of working capital efficiency and leverage on firm value. These findings provide theoretical and practical implications for managers and investors in financial decision-making.

Maiz Wachid Anshorie; Anik Farida; Ela Nurlaela; Abdul Azis; Syaeful Bahri

Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Bisnis 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study examines the determinants of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) based on three main macroeconomic factors namely inflation, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the SBI interest rate (BI Rate) covering the period January 2020 to December 2025, in the context of post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery and global economic turmoil. A quantitative approach was employed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, with 72 monthly observations derived from secondary data sourced from official institutions including Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Classical assumption tests were applied comprising the Jarque-Bera normality test, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for multicollinearity, Breusch-Godfrey for autocorrelation, White Test for heteroscedasticity, and Ramsey RESET for model specification. Partially, inflation, exchange rate, and BI Rate each demonstrate a positive and significant effect on the JCI (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, all three variables exert a significant combined influence on the JCI, with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.4414, indicating that the model explains 44.14% of the variation in the JCI. The remaining 55.86% is attributed to other variables outside the model. Classical assumption test results reveal violations of normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity assumptions, although the model is free from multicollinearity. These findings confirm that Bank Indonesia's monetary policy has a significant and measurable impact on capital market performance. Further research is recommended using more advanced time series models such as GARCH or VECM to address violations of classical assumptions and improve estimation efficiency.

Helnisa Helnisa; Agus Zahron Idris

Jurnal Mutiara Ilmu Akuntansi (JUMIA) 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

The study aims to analyze the influence of financial distress, leverage, and macroeconomic fundamentals on financial reporting fraud in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2020–2024 period. A quantitative approach coupled with multiple linear regression analysis was employed. A saturated sampling technique was used to select 23 companies with 115 observation units. The data used were secondary data from published financial reports on the IDX. The results indicate that financial distress and macroeconomic fundamentals have no effect on financial reporting fraud, while leverage has a positive effect on financial reporting fraud. The model in this study is able to explain 6.9% of the variation in financial reporting fraud, while the remaining amount is influenced by factors outside the model. These findings indicate that companies with high debt levels are more likely to commit financial reporting fraud, while companies with financial problems and high interest rates are less likely to commit financial reporting fraud.

Sirilia Sesilma Jinate Ruben; Elisabeth Lauboling; Maria Yovita R. Pandin

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Ekonomi 2026 Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

This study evaluates how macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates affect the returns on corporate bonds issued by the banking sector in Indonesia. Corporate bonds are an attractive investment alternative, but their performance is highly influenced by fluctuations in national economic conditions. This study uses secondary data obtained from company financial reports, macroeconomic data, and bond market information over a certain period. Multiple linear regression analysis is applied to assess the extent to which each factor affects bond returns. The analysis results indicate that increases in interest rates and inflation tend to reduce bond returns, while the effect of exchange rates is inconsistent and depends on the economic stability at the time. These findings can serve as important considerations for investors, financial analysts, and policymakers in managing risks and opportunities in the Indonesia banking bondmarket.

Ayesa Venia; Melsya Noviriza Lutfia Asma; Syifa Az Zahra; M. Yusuf Bahtiar

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Exchange rates are a crucial indicator in an open economy, playing a significant role in influencing international trade, investment flows, and overall macroeconomic stability. This study aims to analyze the impact of rupiah exchange rate fluctuations on Indonesia’s economic growth during the period 2014–2023. The research employs a descriptive qualitative approach using secondary data obtained from official publications of Statistics Indonesia and Bank Indonesia. The main variables analyzed include the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar and Indonesia’s economic growth. The findings indicate that exchange rate movements are closely related to economic growth dynamics, particularly through international trade mechanisms, production costs, and the stability of the real sector. Depreciation of the exchange rate tends to enhance export competitiveness, but it may also trigger inflation due to rising import prices. Conversely, appreciation can help control inflation but may weaken export competitiveness. Therefore, maintaining exchange rate stability is essential to support sustainable economic growth and strengthen national economic resilience.

Wisnu Hari Nugraha Bintoro; Destian Andhani

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation and interest rates on the stock prices of banking companies listed in the IDX80 index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019–2024 period. Research data were obtained from official reports of banking company stock prices as well as inflation and interest rate data from Bank Indonesia. The study used a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression methods through the SPSS application, and classical assumption tests were conducted as a requirement for analysis. The study population included all IDX80 banking companies, with a saturated sampling technique resulting in five banks that met the criteria during the study period. The results of the partial test indicate that inflation has a positive and significant effect on stock prices, while interest rates have a negative and significant effect on stock prices. This indicates that stable inflation can still improve the performance of the banking sector, while rising interest rates tend to depress stock prices due to increased borrowing costs and a shift in investment to other instruments. The results of the simultaneous test also show that inflation and interest rates together have a significant effect on the stock prices of IDX80 banking companies. The results show that inflation has a significant positive effect on stock prices with a significance value of 0.034, while interest rates have a significant negative effect with a significance value of 0.018. Simultaneously, inflation and interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices with a calculated F value of 14.549 > Ftable 2.70 and a significance of 0.000 < 0.05.

Irlenda Octaviani Torada; Wenten, I Ketut

JURNAL EKONOMI MANAJEMEN AKUNTANSI 2026 sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Dharma Putra Semarang

This study aims to examine and analyze the role of interest rates in strengthening or weakening the effect of Tax Planning and Financial Distress on Firm Value. This research employs a quantitative approach. The population of this study consists of consumer non-cyclical sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2020-2024, totaling 128 companies. The research sample was selected using purposive sampling, resulting in 42 companies that met the specified criteria, with a total of 210 observations. Panel Data Linear Regression Analysis and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) were conducted using Microsoft Excel and E-Views version 12. The results indicate that Tax Planning has no significant effect on Firm Value, while Financial Distress has a significant effect on Firm Value. Regarding the moderating variable, the interest rate is unable to strengthen or weaken the effect of Tax Planning on Firm Value; however, Interest Rates are able to moderate (weaken) the effect of Financial Distress on Firm Value.

Dwifani Syuhra Ritonga; Sri Astuty; Abdul Rajab; Irwandi Irwandi; Muhammad Syafri

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the influence of interest rates, exchange rates, and coffee production on the value of coffee exports in South Sulawesi. The background of this study is based on the condition of South Sulawesi coffee exports which have experienced significant fluctuations in recent years despite coffee production tending to increase. This study uses a quantitative approach with time series data for the period 2009-2023 sourced from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the Directorate General of Plantations, the Food Crops, Horticulture and Plantation Service of South Sulawesi Province. Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression through the EViews 12 application with the classical assumption test as a model prerequisite. The results show that partially interest rates have a significant effect on coffee exports, while exchange rates and coffee production do not have a significant effect. Simultaneously, the three independent variables do not have a significant effect on the value of coffee exports. This finding indicates that external factors, especially interest rates, are more dominant in determining the performance of South Sulawesi coffee exports than internal factors of production and exchange rates.

Mochamad Rizal Anwar; M. Taufiq

International Journal of Economics, Commerce, and Management 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Nickel has become a strategic mineral in the global industrial value chain, particularly for stainless steel production and electric vehicle battery manufacturing. As one of the world’s largest nickel producers, Indonesia has implemented a downstream industrialization policy aimed at increasing value added and strengthening export performance. This study analyzes the effects of international nickel prices, destination countries’ GDP per capita, exchange rates, and the downstreaming policy on the value of Indonesia’s nickel exports (HS 75) over the period 2010–2023. The study employs a quantitative approach using panel data regression with secondary data covering five major export destination countries, namely China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore. Based on the Chow and Hausman tests, the Fixed Effects Model is selected as the most appropriate estimation technique, indicating the presence of country-specific heterogeneity among importing countries. The results show that destination countries’ GDP per capita and international nickel prices have a positive and statistically significant effect on Indonesia’s nickel export value. The downstreaming policy dummy variable also exhibits a positive and significant impact, suggesting that the nickel ore export ban implemented since 2020 has effectively shifted export composition toward higher value-added processed nickel products. In contrast, exchange rates are found to have no significant effect on export performance. Overall, the findings provide empirical evidence supporting the effectiveness of Indonesia’s downstream industrialization policy and highlight the importance of global demand conditions in driving the performance of processed nickel exports.

Maria Yovita R Pandin; Alif Fa’is Nurfadila; Ahmad Fauzan Aditama; Dewa Wahyu Ananta; Rio Anggara Putra +1 more

International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of global diversification, exchange rates, and interest rates on the performance of mixed mutual funds in Indonesia during the period 2020–2024. The method used is a quantitative approach with the Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) technique, using secondary data from the Financial Services Authority, Bank Indonesia, and Bareksa. The sample consists of three mixed mutual fund products that meet the criteria of portfolio data completeness, net asset value, and performance report publication. The results show that exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on mutual fund performance, indicating that exchange rate fluctuations play an important role in determining changes in portfolio returns. The global diversification variable proved to have no significant effect, illustrating that exposure to international markets has not provided stable benefits in improving the performance of mixed mutual funds. Interest rates also did not show a significant effect because the composition of mixed portfolios was able to withstand the impact of monetary policy changes. Simultaneously, the three independent variables were able to explain 66.7 percent of the variation in mixed mutual fund performance, indicating that macroeconomic dynamics and portfolio strategies have an important contribution in influencing the performance of this collective investment instrument.

Fabian Crisandy E.D.; Wijaya, Riko Setya; Perdana, Putra

International Journal of Economic, Social and Development Sciences 2025 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This study examines the factors influencing Indonesia’s motor vehicle exports to nine developing countries using the gravity model approach with long-term and short-term panel data. The variables analyzed include the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of partner countries, exchange rates, economic distance, and trade cooperation agreements. The data are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture short-term dynamics and long-term relationships. The long-term results show that partner countries’ GDP has a significant positive effect on Indonesia’s vehicle exports, indicating that economic growth in partner countries increases demand for Indonesian automotive products. Conversely, exchange rates and economic distance have significant negative effects, suggesting that depreciation of partner currencies and economic disparities reduce export volumes. Trade cooperation agreements do not have a significant impact in the long term. In the short term, changes in GDP continue to have a significant positive effect, while exchange rates maintain a significant negative impact on exports. Economic distance and trade agreements are not significant in the short term. The significant and negative error correction term (ECT) confirms the existence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-term equilibrium. This study highlights the importance of partner countries’ economic growth and exchange rate stability in supporting Indonesia’s vehicle exports to developing countries, as well as the need to address structural barriers to improve long-term competitiveness.

Toruan, Putri Lumban; Sinaga, Martina Br.; Andiny, Puti; Safuridar, Safuridar

Akuntansi Pajak dan Kebijakan Ekonomi Digital 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Economic growth is the process of increasing a country's production capacity to generate goods and services over a specific period, reflecting the income and well-being of its people. This research aims to analyse the influence of labor, exchange rates, and exports on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the manufacturing sector in Indonesia during the period 2010-2024. The method used is multiple linear regression analysis with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach, using secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). The research results indicate that all three independent variables, namely labor, exchange rate, and exports, have a positive and significant impact on the GDP of the manufacturing sector, both partially and simultaneously. The coefficient of determination (Adjusted R2) value of 0.9633 indicates that 96.33% of the variation in industrial sector GDP can be explained by these three variables, while 3.76% is influenced by factors outside the model. This research confirms that increased labour productivity, exchange rate stability, and export growth play an important role in strengthening the performance of the manufacturing sector in Indonesia. Therefore, policies focused on improving the quality of human resources, strengthening export competitiveness, and ensuring macroeconomic stability are needed to support the sustainable and globally competitive growth of the manufacturing sector.

Muhammad Roykhannul Arif; Isabela Tania; Kiswatul Janah; Riyanti Wahyuni; Gama Pratama

Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Economic development strategies play a crucial role in achieving sustainable growth through increased national productivity and equitable welfare distribution. The stability of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, exchange rates, and gross domestic product growth reflects the effectiveness of government development policies. This study aims to analyze the relationship between economic development strategies and macroeconomic equilibrium in Indonesia by examining the interconnection between the product market and the money market. The research adopts a qualitative approach using literature studies derived from scholarly journals, academic articles, and economic publications obtained from Google Scholar and other credible sources. The findings indicate that maintaining balance between the product market and the money market contributes significantly to national economic stability. A well-coordinated synergy between fiscal and monetary policies is essential to preserve macroeconomic stability and ensure that economic development progresses inclusively and sustainably amid global challenges.

Amalia Hafsha Zulfana Phartu; Retno Indah Hernawati

Proceeding of the International Conference on Management, Entrepreneurship, and Business 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), also known as the Indonesia Composite Index is a key indicator that reflects the performance of the Indonesian capital market and serves as a reference for assessing economic conditions and making investment decisions. This study aims to examine the influence of macroeconomic factors such as inflation, the rupiah exchange rate, and interest rates along with an external factor, the Dow Jones Index, on the JCI during the period 2020–2024. This research contributes by incorporating the DJIA as a proxy for global market effects on the JCI and by using the most recent and comprehensive dataset covering the pandemic and subsequent economic recovery. A quantitative approach was employed, using monthly time-series secondary data. The study applied saturated sampling, resulting in 60 observations. The data were obtained from official sources, namely the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and Investing.com. Multiple linear regression was used as the analysis technique. The results show that inflation and the Dow Jones Index have a significant positive effect with the JCI, while the rupiah exchange rate has a significant negative effect. In contrast, interest rates do not show a significant effect on the JCI. These findings suggest that investors should consider inflation, the exchange rate, and global market movements (DJIA) when making investment decisions, while interest rates may play a less prominent role.  

Risalatul Mu’awanah; Maretha Ika Prajawati

Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Digital Terkini 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

Banking stability plays a crucial role in maintaining financial system resilience and supporting national economic growth. Fluctuations in macroeconomic factors often impact banks' financial health, particularly their capital. This study aims to explore how macroeconomic factors such as inflation, central bank benchmark interest rates, and gross domestic product (GDP) impact capital adequacy ratio (CAR) in conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2020 to 2024. This study employed a quantitative approach with an associative design, utilizing secondary data. The sample size for this study was 43 conventional banks. Data analysis was performed using multiple linear regression using SPSS. The findings indicate that inflation and benchmark interest rates do not significantly impact financial health, while GDP indicators show a modest positive trend. These findings confirm that macroeconomic conditions are not yet a dominant factor in determining bank capital adequacy. Therefore, it is suspected that internal factors such as risk management, profitability, and operational efficiency play a greater role in maintaining bank capital stability.

Wafa Mutmainah; Muhammad Iqbal Pribadi; Rahman Anshari

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Ekonomi 2025 Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of interest rates and economic growth on stock returns in companies in the energy sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2019 to 2023. The method used is a quantitative approach with panel data regression analysis. The study population includes 90 company data from the sector. The sample was determined through a purposive sampling method, resulting in 46 companies that meet the established criteria. The results of the study indicate that interest rates have a significant effect on stock returns, while economic growth also shows a significant effect.

Aulia Syafriza; Zulgani Zulgani; Jaya Kusuma Edy

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to determine and analyze the development and influence of exports, exchange rates, inflation, and GRDP on the exchange rate of smallholder plantation farmers in Jambi Province. This study uses multiple linear regression analysis for the period 2009-2024 in Jambi Province. The development of exports, exchange rates, inflation, and GRDP fluctuates annually. Where the average development of exports in Jambi Province in 2009-2024 was 15.22%, the average development of exchange rates was 3.06%, the average development of inflation was 49.07%, the average development of GRDP was 6.22% and the average development of the exchange rate of smallholder plantation farmers in Jambi Province was 4.57%. The results of the study using multiple linear regression resulted in the finding that the variables of exports, exchange rates, inflation, and GRDP simultaneously influenced the exchange rate of smallholder plantation farmers in Jambi Province in 2009-2024. Meanwhile, partially, the export, exchange rate, and inflation variables have a negative effect on the exchange rate of farmers in the smallholder plantation sub-sector in Jambi Province, while the GRDP variable has a substantial positive effect on the exchange rate of farmers in the smallholder plantation sub-sector in Jambi Province in 2009-2024.

Alivia Maharani; Bilgah Bilgah

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effect of interest rates and inflation on the profitability of property and real estate sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2020-2024. Profitability is measured using the Return on Assets (ROA) ratio, while interest rates refer to the BI-7 Day Reverse Repo Rate and inflation is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Bank Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis methods and classical assumption tests supported by data processing using SPSS version 27 software. The sample was selected using purposive sampling techniques with criteria of companies that consistently submit annual financial reports, do not record losses during the research period, and use the Rupiah currency. The research results indicate that partially, interest rates have a positive and significant effect on profitability, while inflation does not have a significant effect on profitability. However, simultaneously, interest rates and inflation together have a significant effect on the company's profitability. These findings are expected to serve as a strategic reference for companies in formulating financial policies to maintain profitability stability amidst macroeconomic dynamics.

Fajar Andrianto; Ahsan Sumantika

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of changes in interest rates, exchange rates, economic growth, and world oil prices on stock returns in the transportation and logistics sector in Indonesia during the period 2006–2024. This sector was chosen because it is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in macroeconomic factors that have a direct impact on companies' operating costs and financial performance. The method used is multiple linear regression with an annual panel data approach, using a sample of transportation and logistics companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The independent variables include changes in interest rates, exchange rates, economic growth, and oil prices, while the dependent variable is stock returns. The results show that, partially, only changes in interest rates have a significant negative effect on stock returns. Conversely, exchange rates, economic growth, and oil prices have no statistically significant effect. Simultaneously, these four variables also show no significant effect on stock returns. This study makes a new contribution through the use of a long observation period and a focus on the transportation and logistics sector, thereby providing a deeper understanding of this sector's sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions.