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As a developing country, Indonesia has an economic structure dominated by the agricultural sector, making it vulnerable to disruptions to economic stability. Economic growth is an indicator showing that the economic level of society in general has increased in terms of consumption habits and people's purchasing power for goods and services. However, excessive consumption leads to a consumer society and inflation. This study aims to look at the causality between inflation, consumer price index, interest rates, gross domestic product, and exchange rates using the time series approach in the form of the quarterly period 2014Q1 to 2022Q2 in Indonesia using the VAR (Vector Autoregression) method. The research results show that inflation is related to or influenced by the consumer price index and savings. As for the Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product and Interest Rates have no effect on inflation.

Abstract. National economic development and regional economic development are two very closely related matters. This study aims to analyze the economic structure and specialization of the economic sector so that it can determine the main sectors, groups that are classified as advanced and sectors that are classified as slow and analyze the competitiveness of each sector in North Sumatra Province. This study uses the Shift Share analysis method. The data used in this study is secondary data in the 2017-2021 interval. The data used is secondary data, namely data obtained from records, books and journals in the form of financial reports for company publications, government reports, articles, books such as theories, journals, etc. The results of this study are expected to be an academic foundation for development in the North Sumatra area.