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Analytics

Elfira Annisa; Wahyu Indah Sari; Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty

The International Conference on Education, Social Sciences and Technology 2022 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This research to analyze the contribution of variables from three economic policies, with monetary policy through interest rate variables, exchange rates, and money supply in facing economic recession. Where the fiscal policy variable is through tax value. Then macroprudential policy through Non Performing Loan and Capital Adequacy Ratio variables. This study uses secondary data or time series, namely from December 2019 to February 2021. The data analysis model in this study is the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model which is seen from being sharpened with Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), Panel ARDL, and Different Tests. The results of the IRF analysis show that the stability of the response of all variables is formed in period 8 or the medium and long term, where the response of other variables to changes in one variable shows different variations, both from positive responses to negative responses or vice versa, and there are variables whose responses remain positive or remain negative from the short term to the long term. The results of the FEVD analysis show that for the short-term inflation variable it is influenced by inflation itself and in the medium and long term it is influenced by interest rates. For the JUB variable in the short term it is influenced by JUB itself and in the medium and long term it is influenced by NPL. For the interest rate variable in the short term it is influenced by JUB while in the medium and long term it is influenced by the exchange rate itself and CAR. For the tax variable in the short, medium and long term it is influenced by the tax itself and JUB. For the NPL variable in the short, medium and long term it is influenced by JUB and tax. For the CAR variable in the short, medium and long term it is influenced by JUB and tax. Then the results of the ARDL Panel analysis show that the country that is able to become a leading indicator in controlling the economic recession in the Four of The Group Twenty, namely Turkey, is only done by interest rates. While South Africa is done by interest rates, taxes, NPL, and CAR. For Russia, it is done by all variables, namely the amount of money in circulation, interest rates, exchange rates, taxes, NPL, and CAR. Meanwhile, Indonesia is carried out by exchange rates, taxes, NPL and CAR.

Rusiadi, Rusiadi; Ade Novalina; Bhaktiar Effendi; Anita N Hutasoit

Proceeding of The International Conference on Economics and Business 2022 Universitas Kristen Indonesia Toraja

The financial system plays an important role in the economy. An unstable financial system will be vulnerable to various problems that disrupt the rotation of a country's economy and be vulnerable to economic problems such as the global crisis in various countries. The problem that occurs is the occurrence of Covid-19 causing various fluctuations in the level of inflation, money supply, imports, the occurrence of unstable inflation from January 2019 to August 2021, low inflation resulting in a decrease in imports and an increase in the money supply in Mexico. , Vietnam, Philippines, Hongkong, Indonesia, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore, Peru, and China. The analytical method in this study uses the ARDL Panel (Autoregression Distributed Lag) approach. The ARDL Panel Model determines which country models from APEC countries are able to control long-term financial system-based economic fundamentals in Mexico, Vietnam, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore, Peru, and China and the Different Test for modeling the impact of covid-19 19 on the economic fundamentals of the financial system. The results of the research found the ARDL Panel prediction model in modeling the impact of Covid-19 on economic fundamentals in the financial system. The main Leading Indicator of variable effectiveness in controlling Inflation In TAPEC is JUB where Vietnam, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Peru and China have a significant influence in controlling Inflation. Then overall in the long term (Long Run) it turns out that only the JUB and CDV variables have an effect on INF In TAPEC, while in the short term (Short Run) it is JUB that influences Inflation In TAPEC.  

Abdiyanto, Abdiyanto; Ronald Farel Siahaan; Rusiadi, Rusiadi; Ade Novalina; Bhaktiar Efendi +3 more

Proceeding of The International Conference on Economics and Business 2022 Universitas Kristen Indonesia Toraja

Destination from study this that is for test variable Interest Rates, Inflation , Total Money Supply and GDP how much big in take effect to EXCHANGE variable . And for knowing is panel level _ ethnic group interest , inflation , money supply , unemployment , investment , and GDP have an effect positive and significant to exchange rates in America, Australia, China, Canada , Indonesia, Japan , South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Russia and Thailand. Approach study this is study associative / quantitative with the Simultaneous model and the ARDL Panel where aim see linkages Among independent variables and dependent variables that spread panel in Top Major Exchange Rate countries in 11 APEC Countries. Study this conducted against 11 countries with exchange rate strongest in the APEC countries in the world (America, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Japan , China, Indonesia, Canada , Russia , and Thailand). The ARDL Panel Analysis results show that the Leading Model Control indicators Exchange Rate System Through the Post -Covid-19 Open Economy Model, the Top Major Exchange Rates in Eleven Apec Countries (Varies) are JUB and GDP. this _ due to the results data processing , the ROE variable is variable that gives stable influence , ie _ effect on the inside period long nor period short in give influence significant to score exchange , which is assessed from level short run and long run stability in the table result .