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This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation in Indonesia during the period 1994–2023 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The data used are monthly time series secondary data obtained from the World Bank. The Johansen cointegration test results indicate a long-term relationship among the three variables. However, the Granger causality test finds no significant short-term causal relationship. The VECM estimation reveals that inflation is the most responsive variable in correcting long-term disequilibrium, while the exchange rate plays a dominant role in influencing both inflation and interest rates. The Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition results indicate that these variables interact dynamically, especially in the medium to long term. These findings highlight the importance of exchange rate stabilization and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy to maintain macroeconomic stability in Indonesia.

This study aims to analyze the effect of Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP), agricultural labor, and education on the rural poverty rate in western Indonesia during the 2019-2023 period. Using panel data from 17 provinces and the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) method, the results show that the three independent variables have a negative and significant effect on rural poverty. These findings identify that improving farmers' welfare, optimizing labor in the agricultural sector, and improving education can be effective strategies in reducing poverty in rural areas.

This study aims to analyze the impact of the monetary and fiscal policy mix on Indonesia's economic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic in the period 2013-2023. Using the Simultaneous Regression method (Two-Stage Least Squares/2SLS), this study tests two simultaneous equations, namely the effect of exports, unemployment rate, and inflation on economic growth (GDP), as well as the effect of exchange rates (exchange rates), interest rates, and GDP on inflation. The results of the study indicate that exports and unemployment have a significant negative effect on economic growth, while inflation has a significant positive effect on GDP. Meanwhile, the exchange rate and interest rate have a significant effect on inflation, but GDP does not have a significant effect on inflation. The normality test shows that the data is normally distributed and the autocorrelation test does not detect any autocorrelation, so the model used is valid. The effectiveness of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel on economic growth was found to be positive, although not statistically significant. This finding emphasizes the importance of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, maintaining exchange rate stability, controlling inflation, and efforts to restore the real sector and reduce unemployment to support sustainable economic growth in Indonesia. This study provides recommendations for the government and monetary authorities to strengthen policy synergy in facing economic challenges, especially during times of crisis, to ensure more effective national economic stability and recovery.

oreign exchange reserves are one of the key indicators in international trade, reflecting the fundamental strength of a country's economy. They serve as a benchmark to assess the robustness of a nation's economic condition and indicate its ability to engage in international trade. Several factors influence Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, including export value, exchange rate, and foreign direct investment (FDI). This study aims to analyze the simultaneous impact of export value, exchange rate, and FDI on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, as well as their partial effects. The data analysis technique employed in this research is multiple linear regression. The findings reveal that export value, exchange rate, and FDI significantly influence Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves simultaneously. Partially, export value and exchange rate have a positive and significant impact, while FDI has a positive but statistically insignificant effect. It can be concluded that increasing export value and maintaining exchange rate stability play a crucial role in sustaining and enhancing Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves.    

This study aims to analyze the impact of monetary policy on the purchasing power of society in Indonesia. Using a qualitative approach and secondary data from various official reports, this research examines the mechanism of monetary policy in controlling inflation and maintaining price stability, as well as its effect on the public’s ability to meet consumption needs. The results indicate that effective monetary policy can maintain price stability and preserve purchasing power, despite challenges such as commodity price volatility and exchange rate fluctuations. The study emphasizes the importance of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies as well as transparent communication in policy implementation to support societal welfare..

Global economic issues have significantly impacted national economic progress in recent decades, especially for developing countries such as Indonesia.  Currency exchange rates are one of the main variables that influence this economic process.  The performance of a country's external sector is largely determined by the exchange rate, which also affects a number of other macroeconomic factors.  The purpose of this study is to see how much Indonesia's economic growth is affected by the exchange rate between 1980 and 2023. Data from government agencies including the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia are used in this quantitative approach using a literature study approach.  The findings show that changes in the value of the rupiah, especially when depreciation occurs, have a significant influence on a number of economic factors, such as imports, exports, inflation, domestic investment, and consumption.  The competitiveness of Indonesian export goods in the global market increases with the depreciation of the exchange rate. At the same time, however, it also leads to higher prices for imported goods, increases the burden of foreign debt, and depresses people's purchasing power and domestic investment activity. The last five years of data reflect the fluctuating pattern of Indonesia's international trade, which is closely related to exchange rate conditions and global economic dynamics. Exchange rate instability creates economic uncertainty, which can hamper long-term growth. Therefore, stabilizing the exchange rate and strengthening the export sector are important strategies, supported by monetary and fiscal policies that are adaptive to global changes.

International Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) face significant challenges in improving global competitiveness due to limited resources and access to effective market analysis, despite contributing 45% to the global economy (OECD, 2025). This research aims to develop an integrated machine learning (ML) model with a mixed-methods approach to optimise cross-border MSME market analysis. A combination of quantitative (transaction data analysis of 500 Indonesian export MSMEs 2020-2024 using XGBoost and SEM-AMOS) and qualitative (interviews with 15 MSME players) methods revealed that the XGBoost model achieved 89% accuracy in predicting market trends, with key variables including social media sentiment (28%) and exchange rate fluctuations (19%). Qualitative results show that 65% of MSMEs face cross-border regulatory barriers that ML models do not detect. The findings extend the Resource-Based View theory by validating AI-driven market intelligence as a strategic asset (β = 0.67, p 0.7. This research highlights the importance of technology integration and contextual adaptation in the digital transformation of MSMEs.

Despite their 45% contribution to the global economy, international micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) face considerable obstacles in enhancing their global competitiveness because they lack the resources and access to efficient market analysis (OECD, 2025). In order to optimize cross-border MSME market analysis, this research attempts to construct a machine learning (ML) model coupled with a mixed-methods approach. A combination of quantitative (XGBoost and SEM-AMOS were used to analyze transaction data of 500 Indonesian export MSMEs 2020–2024) and qualitative (interviews with 15 MSME players) methods showed that the XGBoost model achieved 89% accuracy in predicting market trends, with key variables including exchange rate fluctuations (19%) and social media sentiment (28%). According to qualitative findings, the ML model does not identify cross-border regulatory constraints that 65% of MSMEs must deal with. These results validate market intelligence powered by AI as a strategic asset, extending the Resource-Based View paradigm. The significance of contextual adaptation and technological integration in the digital transformation of MSMEs is emphasized by this study.

In today’s global economy, accurately predicting foreign exchange rates or estimating their trends correctly is crucial for informed investment decisions. Despite the success of standalone models like ARIMA and deep learning models like LSTM, challenges persist in capturing both linear and nonlinear dynamics in highly volatile exchange rate environments. Motivated by the limitations of these individual models and the need for more robust forecasting tools, this study proposes a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model that integrates ARIMA’s strength in modeling linear trends with LSTM’s capability to capture nonlinear dependencies, using historical USD/NGN exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) spanning 2001 to 2024. The research hypothesis posits that the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model will significantly outperform standalone models in forecasting accuracy. By comparing these models against state-of-the-art approaches, the study highlights the advantages of hybridizing statistical and deep learning methods. The findings demonstrate that the hybrid model achieved the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2.216 and the highest R² of 0.998, indicating superior forecasting performance. This study fills a critical research gap by demonstrating the effectiveness of hybrid deep learning in financial time series forecasting, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and financial analysts. Future research will extend this work by incorporating the latest dataset and evaluating model robustness during the recent surge in the Naira/Dollar exchange rate from 2023 to 2024.

Pineapple is one of Indonesia's top three fruit commodities in terms of production volume. In 2022, Indonesia became the world's largest pineapple producer. Pineapple production in Indonesia has fluctuated but has generally shown an increasing and stable trend from 2013 to 2023, with expectations of continued growth. This study aims to analyze the influence of production, the wholesale price index, exchange rates, and export prices on Indonesia's pineapple export volume from 2013 to 2023. This research utilizes secondary time-series data on a quarterly basis, analyzed using multiple linear regression and classical assumption tests. The results indicate that production, the wholesale price index, exchange rates, and export prices simultaneously influence Indonesia's pineapple export volume. Partially, production and exchange rates have a positive but statistically insignificant effect on export volume, while the wholesale price index and export prices have a negative yet statistically significant impact. These findings highlight the importance of policies that can reduce production costs to enhance the competitiveness of Indonesian pineapples in the international market. Through synergy between the government, exporters, and farmers, it is expected that Indonesia's pineapple exports will continue to grow sustainably.

This research focuses on exchange rate fluctuations in Indonesia during the period of 2005 to 2023, influenced by various economic factors, primarily monetary policy and international trade dynamics. Exchange rate instability is a major concern because it can impact the national economy, including export competitiveness and macroeconomic stability. Consequently, the purpose of this research is to dissect the relationship between interest rates, export values, and wide money as it pertains to currency swings.  This study takes a quantitative approach by analyzing the relationship between the dependent and independent variables via multiple linear regression.  World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and Statistics Indonesia yearly time series data from 2005 to 2023 is used.  The findings show that broad money, interest rates, and export values significantly impact the swings in the Indonesian currency.  According to the findings of the multiple linear regression analysis, Interest rates and broad money have a positive and statistically significant effect on changes in exchange rates, but export values have a negative and statistically significant effect. The implications of this research emphasize the importance of appropriate interest rate policies and balanced broad money management to maintain exchange rate stability. Future researchers are advised to include global variables and more complex analysis methods.

The impact of globalization has brought significant changes in economic development in the world, rapid progress in several sectors such as transportation, technology, information and communication makes it easy for companies to develop their business by not only becoming local companies, but transforming into multinational companies. This study aims to test and analyze the effect of tax burden, exchange rate, and foreign ownership on transfer pricing in food and beverage sub-sector companies listed on the IDX for the period 2020-2022. This type of research is correlational research with a quantitative approach. The sample in this amounted to 51 financial reports obtained from 17 food and beverage sub-sector companies listed on the IDX during the 3-year period. The analysis method used is statistical method with the help of IBM SPSS 26 application. The results show that the tax burden and exchange rate partially have a negative effect on transfer pricing, while the foreign ownership variable has a positive effect on transfer pricing, and the tax burden, exchange rate, and foreign ownership variables simultaneously have no effect on transfer pricing.

This study aims to analyze the variable contribution of the interaction of monetary policy variables (COURSE, GDP, INFLATION, CONSUMPTION and INTEREST). This study uses secondary data or time series from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2024. The data analysis model in this study is the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model and sharpened with Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis. The results of the SVAR analysis show that the past variable (t-1) contributes to the current variable both to itself and other variables and from the estimation results it turns out that there is a reciprocal relationship between variables where all variables, namely monetary policy variables (GDP, INFLATION, CURRENCY, CONSUMPTION and INTEREST) contribute to each other.

This study aims to analyze the effect of the inflation rate on the number of Wismanto Indonesia Via Air Gateway. The data used covers the period from January 2017 to September 2024, focusing on the relationship between inflation as a macroeconomic factor and the number of tourists visiting Indonesia. The data analysis used in this study is regression analysis, supported by descriptive analysis of each variable. The regression analysis results show that the inflation rate has a significant positive effect on the number of international tourist arrivals. The regression coefficient of 156,266 indicates that every 1% increase in inflation has the potential to increase the number of international tourists by 156,266 individuals. The significance value of 0.000 indicates that this relationship is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. These findings provide an understanding that although inflation is often associated with rising prices of goods and services, in the context of Indonesian tourism, inflation can be linked to other factors, such as exchange rate fluctuations, which increase Indonesia's appeal as a tourist destination. This study recommends that the government and stakeholders in the tourism sector consider the impact of inflation in tourism development strategies, while maintaining economic stability and international competitiveness. Further studies are recommended to explore other mediating variables, such as exchange rates and tourism promotion policies, in order to understand this relationship more comprehensively.  

Power Index is a strategic indicator measuring a nation's military, economic, and geopolitical capabilities, closely tied to national defense and security. This study examines key factors such as currency exchange rates, GDP, education levels, and technology penetration in shaping the Power Index. Economic stability underpins defense development, while advanced education and digital infrastructure drive innovations in military technology and cybersecurity. Developed countries dominate defense capabilities due to robust technological infrastructures, while developing nations show potential through investments in education and technology. Beta distribution regression, with its suitability for bounded variables, was utilized to model the Power Index. The study provides insights into the interplay between economic, educational, and technological factors, supporting strategic policymaking to strengthen national defense in a dynamic global landscape.

The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of the exchange rate and BI rate on deposits. The population in this study is all exchange rate data, BI rate and deposits from commercial banks in Indonesia. Sampling was taken by taking monthly data from the exchange rate, BI rate and deposits available from January 2014 to December 2023. The results of hypothesis testing show that hypothesis 1 (H1) that the exchange rate has a negative effect on deposits is proven and can be interpreted as meaning that an increase in the exchange rate will reduce amount of deposits at commercial banks in Indonesia. Hypothesis 2 (H2) that the BI rate has a positive effect on deposits is proven and can be interpreted to mean that an increase in the BI rate will increase the number of deposits at commercial banks in Indonesia.

Iraq needs to correct public finances to achieve stability and rebuild financial reserves, by adopting a program to measure and analyze the current situation and forecast macroeconomic policies to eliminate the imbalance between domestic demand and aggregate supply, which is usually manifested in the problems of the balance of payments, high inflation, and low output growth, and financial programming is an essential tool for managing policies to achieve stability and rebuild financial reserves.Analyze the current situation and forecast macroeconomic policies to address economic imbalances. However, there is a difficulty in applying the financial programming tool because of  the lack  of accurate information systems to estimate the rate of inflation, unemployment, economic growth, exchange rate, balance of payments and the general budget, in addition to irrational fiscal policy that depends on excessive expansion of government spending, with the sovereignty and control of the public sector over the macroeconomy, compared to the weak and weak role of the private sector. As a result of the policies pursued by successive governments and thus constitute weaknesses for the application of financial programming.

In alongside demonstrating how strategic cost management approaches can lower banking risks, the study sought to address the theoretical underpinnings of both banking risks and strategic cost management techniques. as well as identifying the most important measures through which banking risks to which economic units are exposed can be reduced to a minimum by helping to deal with situations in which the future cannot be predicted with certainty and that banking risks arise from the financing side. The study was applied in a sample of banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, and the focus was on commercial banks because of the exposure of these banks to a range of banking risks, the most important of which are credit risks, liquidity, exchange rate and interest rate. These banks also suffer from problems related to operational decisions such as pricing decisions. Strategic cost management techniques are a set of tools and methods that are appropriate to the needs of the modern business environment, which is concerned with cost analysis in a broad framework through its ideal position in order to improve the cost structure and achieve competitive advantage. This was the most significant finding of the research. The research discovered that strategic cost management techniques can help reduce risks and rationalize operational decisions, through which they can respond quickly to customer requirements and provide sufficient flexibility for any Changes that may occur and the delivery of products to them as quickly as possible while adhering to the standards of the modern corporate environment.

Tobacco is one of the leading commodities in the agricultural sector. In the Indonesian agricultural sector, tobacco has been widely exported to various countries. Of the several tobacco export destination countries, Cambodia dominates the Indonesian tobacco export market. Problems related to fluctuations in Indonesia's export volume need serious attention, because this is important to understand the factors that influence the increase and decrease in the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia. Based on the description, the objectives of this study are (1) To analyze the influence of production volume, inflation, and the dollar exchange rate simultaneously on the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia, (2) To analyze the partial influence of production volume, inflation, and the dollar exchange rate on the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia. The data used in this study are secondary data with a total of 32 observations (years), using the multiple linear regression method. This study found that (1) Simultaneously, production volume, inflation, and the dollar exchange rate significantly affect the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia, and (2) Partially, production volume, inflation, and the dollar exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports to Cambodia. Based on the results of the study, it is hoped that the government can pay attention to the causes of fluctuations in the volume of Indonesian tobacco exports.  

This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors consisting of inflation, rupiah exchange rate, and interest rates on stock returns of manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2021-2023. The research method uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis. The research sample consists of manufacturing companies listed on IDX during the research period, selected using purposive sampling method. The results show that among the three macroeconomic factors studied, only the rupiah exchange rate has a significant influence on the stock returns of manufacturing companies. This is due to the characteristics of the manufacturing industry which has a high dependence on imported raw materials, so that exchange rate fluctuations directly affect the company's financial performance and stock returns. Meanwhile, inflation and interest rates did not show a significant effect on stock returns of manufacturing companies during the study period.