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Inflation, unemployment, and deflation are three fundamental macroeconomic phenomena that are closely interconnected in influencing a nation’s economic stability. These variables illustrate the equilibrium between production capacity, consumption behavior, and government intervention in achieving sustainable economic growth. The main purpose of this study is to explore the interrelationship between inflation, unemployment, and deflation, and to assess their implications for Indonesia’s economic stability. This research applies a qualitative descriptive method, employing literature reviews, document analysis, and secondary data evaluation derived from credible institutions such as the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and the Ministry of Finance. The results suggest that a moderate level of inflation can positively stimulate economic expansion through increased consumption and investment activities. In contrast, excessive inflation tends to erode consumer purchasing power and potentially elevate unemployment rates. Meanwhile, prolonged deflationary conditions may lead to a decline in product prices, reduced business profitability, and slower economic momentum. The interaction among these three factors is complex and dynamic, necessitating a coordinated balance between fiscal and monetary policies to safeguard overall economic stability. This study concludes that effective inflation control, job creation, and deflation prevention are critical elements in strengthening Indonesia’s long-term economic resilience.

Economic forecasting is becoming increasingly important year after year, especially during crises such as the pandemic of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. Its development can be seen from the use of basic statistical models to the increasingly widespread use of machine learning technology. Economic forecasting plays an important role in helping to formulate policies and is also a reliable tool for researchers in dealing with uncertainty. Global crises, such as inflationary pressures due to the pandemic and supply chain disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have prompted increased research in this field in an effort to anticipate economic shocks and emphasize the urgency of forecasting to prepare strategies for dealing with future uncertainty. This literature review uses the Scopus database with 2561 publications from 2020 to 2025, analyzed using R Studio with a bibliometrix approach (specifically biblioshiny) and VOSviewer to map relevant thematic connections. This analysis shows that economic forecasting is greatly influenced by market uncertainty and geopolitical factors, and at the same time influences public policy formulation and financial stability. Research contributions from Indonesia are still limited, with only 40 documents, thus emphasizing the need to strengthen economic forecasting studies in Indonesia to support monetary policy and national financial stability.

This study examines the influence of credit interest rates and third-party funds on the credit distribution of PT BPR BKK Banjarharjo, Brebes Regency, using a quantitative approach based on secondary data from monthly financial reports between 2020 and 2024, amounting to 60 observations. The results show that, partially, credit interest rates exert a negative and significant effect on credit distribution, while third-party funds demonstrate a positive and significant impact. Simultaneous testing further confirms that both variables collectively have a significant influence on credit distribution. These findings emphasize the importance of banking institutions in carrying out their intermediation function effectively, where the ability to maintain competitive credit interest rates and strengthen public fund mobilization becomes a strategic necessity to improve credit growth and financial stability. Moreover, the study highlights the role of micro-banking as a foundation for regional economic development, particularly in rural areas where local banks serve as drivers of community empowerment and sustainable economic activity. By reinforcing prudent management of interest rates and optimizing fund collection, banks can ensure not only improved financial performance but also the expansion of credit access for micro, small, and medium enterprises. The outcomes of this research are expected to provide practical contributions to policymakers in the banking sector, enrich scientific literature in financial management, and serve as a relevant reference for subsequent studies focusing on credit distribution, financial intermediation, and the development of microfinance institutions.

This study aims to analyze community perceptions of the application of legal and economic principles of food security in Rias Village, Toboali District. Food security is a crucial issue because it is directly related to survival, welfare, and regional economic stability. However, the community's understanding of food security is often limited to food availability, without considering its relationship with legislation and the dynamics of the village economy. The research method used was qualitative with a descriptive approach that included in-depth interviews, observation, and documentation of the local community. The results of the study show that the people of Rias Village have a positive perception of the importance of food security, especially from an economic perspective, such as market access, food prices, and business capital. However, understanding of legal aspects is still limited, especially regarding government and local regulations that should protect the community's right to access food. This perception confirms that the successful implementation of food security principles in Rias Village is influenced by legal policies that favor the community and economic strategies that encourage local food self-sufficiency.

This study analyzes the dynamics of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in the Indonesian banking sector by examining both internal and external factors affecting financial stability. The variables included in the research are NPL, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), lending interest rate, inflation, Household Debt to Income (HDTI), fintech lending, and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). Using annual secondary data from 2005 to 2024, sourced from the World Bank and Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the study employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) method. This method includes stationarity tests, optimal lag selection, cointegration tests, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results show that most variables demonstrate a dominant contribution from their own shocks, although interactions between variables remain significant. The IRF analysis reveals that CAR and HDTI are relatively stable and quickly return to equilibrium, while fintech lending, inflation, and NPLs show more volatile responses, making them more susceptible to external shocks. LDR and lending interest rates are sensitive in the short term but tend to stabilize over the long run. FEVD further indicates that inflation plays a significant role in driving NPL variations, while fintech lending is closely associated with CAR in the long term. The study concludes that the stability of Indonesia’s banking sector is influenced by both internal factors like CAR and LDR, as well as external factors such as inflation, fintech lending, and household debt. Thus, a coordinated approach involving monetary policy, macroprudential measures, and financial supervision is crucial to enhance the resilience of the banking sector against global and domestic economic shifts.

Financial stability in manufacturing companies is an important issue, especially when facing national and global economic uncertainty. Good corporate governance is considered a framework that can drive technological innovation to enhance corporate excellence and achieve sustainable financial stability. This study aims to analyze the influence of the size of independent board of commissioners, managerial ownership, and institutional ownership on financial stability, with technological innovation as a mediating variable. The research data for this study were obtained from the annual financial reports of manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2020 to 2023. Data analysis was performed using panel data regression and mediation testing using the Sobel test approach. The research findings indicate that the size of the independent board of commissioners has a positive effect on technological innovation, while managerial ownership has a negative effect and institutional ownership has no significant effect on technological innovation. However, the size of the independent board of commissioners, managerial ownership, institutional ownership, and technological innovation all have a significant effect on financial stability. The technology innovation variable also proved to mediate the influence of the size of the independent board of commissioners on financial stability. This finding emphasizes the importance of good corporate governance and technological innovation in maintaining the financial stability of manufacturing companies.

Sustainable food security is a strategic issue in rural development that demands a comprehensive approach based on local communities. This community service activity aims to provide socialization and education about sustainable food security through a socio-economic phenomenological approach, focusing on the role of farmer housewives in Pondidaha Village, Konawe Regency. The implementation methods included educational lectures, focus group discussions (FGDs), field visits, and hands-on practice on sustainable food management, involving 20 farmer housewife respondents. The results showed that 80% of participants gained an adequate understanding of the concept of sustainable food security, local food diversification strategies, and an active role in improving family welfare through strengthening socio-economic capacity. The main challenges identified include limited access to resources, the dual role of housewives, and seasonal income instability. The solutions implemented include sustainable agriculture management training, food diversification counseling, and increased local market access. The socio-economic phenomenological approach provides a perspective that the life experiences, cultural values, and habits of farmer housewives are key elements in the success of food security programs at the community level. This activity contributes to increasing public awareness, skills, and participation in realizing sustainable food security, as well as strengthening the role of women in rural development based on local wisdom. This result is expected to be a model of community empowerment that can be replicated in other rural areas with similar characteristics.

High turnover intention has become a critical issue in the broadcasting industry, especially in divisions that operate under fast-paced tasks and high levels of pressure. This study aims to analyze the influence of career development and job satisfaction on employees’ intention to leave the organization. Career development is measured through indicators such as promotion opportunities, work experience, and training, while job satisfaction is assessed through compensation, work environment, and recognition. A quantitative research design was applied, utilizing Partial Least Square (PLS) to analyze data obtained from a survey of employees working in a broadcasting company in Surabaya. The findings demonstrate that both career development and job satisfaction have a significant negative relationship with turnover intention, meaning that improvements in these variables can effectively reduce employees’ desire to quit. Among the career development indicators, work experience was found to be the most dominant factor influencing employee retention. On the other hand, recognition emerged as the most influential dimension of job satisfaction, showing that appreciation from the organization plays a crucial role in maintaining employee commitment. Overall, this study highlights the importance for broadcasting companies to implement effective career development strategies and enhance job satisfaction in order to minimize turnover intention and sustain organizational stability.

This study aims to identify, assess, and control risks that arise in container loading and unloading activities at PT Dunia Express Transindo using the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) approach. Container loading and unloading activities are complex and involve various parties, making them highly susceptible to risks, both from internal and external aspects. Risks that can occur include system disruptions, operational negligence, equipment damage, and environmental factors such as extreme weather that can affect the smoothness of the loading and unloading process. Therefore, the company needs to have a structured, comprehensive, and sustainable risk management system to maintain operational continuity. This research method refers to the COSO framework and the ISO 31000:2018 standard which focuses on the process of risk identification, assessment of likelihood and impact levels, and formulation of appropriate mitigation strategies. Data were obtained through interviews with management, field observations, and analysis of company documents. The results of the study indicate that the implementation of ERM is able to map risks more systematically, making it easier for the company to determine handling priorities. Several risks with a high probability and significant impact received special attention through the implementation of mitigation strategies such as improving information technology systems, routine employee training, and more scheduled equipment maintenance. These findings indicate that ERM implementation not only functions as a risk control tool but also plays a role in increasing operational efficiency, strengthening inter-departmental coordination, and minimizing potential losses that could disrupt company stability. Furthermore, ERM implementation makes a real contribution to increasing the competitiveness of companies in the logistics and stevedoring sector, especially in facing dynamic business challenges and external environmental uncertainty.

This study aims to empirically examine the influence of compensation, work motivation, and work environment on employee turnover intention at PT. XYZ, Kimia Merak Division. This study is expected to contribute both theoretically and practically in the field of human resource management, particularly in reducing employee turnover. The problem of turnover intention is a crucial issue because it can have negative impacts on organizational sustainability, such as increased recruitment costs, disrupted productivity, and the loss of experienced employees. The research method used is a quantitative approach with a purposive sampling technique. The study sample consisted of 75 permanent employees who have worked for at least two years. Data collection was carried out using a questionnaire instrument that has been tested for validity and reliability. Data analysis used multiple linear regression to test the influence of independent variables on the dependent variable. The results of the study indicate that compensation, work motivation, and work environment each have a negative and significant effect on turnover intention. This means that the better the compensation provided, the higher the employee's work motivation, and the more conducive the work environment, the lower the tendency of employees to intend to leave the company. The findings indicate that improving compensation packages, enhancing employee motivation, and maintaining a supportive work environment are crucial strategies to reduce turnover intention. Based on these results, companies are advised to design fair and competitive compensation systems, create programs that enhance intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and ensure a safe, comfortable, and supportive work environment for employee performance. This way, companies can retain quality human resources and maintain operational stability.

This study explores the impact of emotional intelligence and work–life balance on organizational commitment, with job satisfaction serving as a mediating variable, in the context of couriers at JNE Denpasar. Utilizing a quantitative research design, the study applies Partial Least Square (PLS) Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to analyze data collected from 56 participants through a census sampling method. The findings reveal that emotional intelligence has a direct and significant effect on organizational commitment, indicating that employees with higher emotional intelligence tend to demonstrate stronger loyalty and dedication to their organization. However, emotional intelligence does not show a significant influence on job satisfaction, suggesting that other factors may contribute to employees' overall contentment at work. Conversely, work–life balance significantly affects job satisfaction, highlighting the importance of maintaining a healthy equilibrium between professional and personal responsibilities. Despite this, work–life balance does not directly influence organizational commitment. Further analysis indicates that job satisfaction fully mediates the relationship between work–life balance and organizational commitment, demonstrating that employees who achieve a better work–life balance are more likely to be satisfied with their jobs, which in turn enhances their commitment to the organization. However, job satisfaction does not serve as a mediator between emotional intelligence and organizational commitment, implying a more direct pathway between these two variables. These results align with the Theory of Planned Behavior, emphasizing that positive attitudes, reflected through job satisfaction, play a critical role in fostering behaviors associated with organizational commitment. From a practical perspective, the study highlights the importance for companies, particularly in the logistics industry, to invest in initiatives that enhance emotional intelligence and promote effective work–life balance strategies. By doing so, organizations can cultivate stronger employee loyalty, improve engagement, and foster a more committed workforce, ultimately contributing to better organizational performance and stability.

This study employs a qualitative library research method with the primary objective of analyzing the effectiveness of development administration in the management of regional budgets to support local economic development. Development administration is a crucial component in the governance process, encompassing the planning, organizing, directing, and supervising of budget utilization to ensure that resources are allocated in a targeted, efficient, and sustainable manner. Within the context of local governments, the effectiveness of budget management is considered a key indicator of the success of regional development, as it directly reflects the ability of local authorities to implement policies that foster equitable and inclusive growth. The data for this study were obtained from various scientific literature sources, including academic journals, textbooks, and relevant government policy documents addressing budgeting and regional development. The findings of the analysis highlight that successful budget management is strongly influenced by bureaucratic capacity, particularly in terms of administrative competence, professional integrity, and institutional stability. Furthermore, transparency in budget planning processes plays a significant role in building public trust and preventing misallocation of resources. Equally important is the participation of the community in monitoring and evaluating budget implementation, which ensures accountability and responsiveness to public needs. In addition, synergy between legislative and executive bodies is identified as a determining factor in strengthening checks and balances, thereby enhancing the accountability of public fund management. The study concludes that effective development administration not only supports efficient allocation of financial resources but also contributes to accelerating local economic growth, reducing social inequality, and improving community welfare. Ultimately, this research is expected to provide valuable insights and serve as a reference for local governments in formulating strategies for more optimal, transparent, and participatory budget management practices

Education plays a vital role in improving human resource quality, making it essential for addressing challenges in developing countries, such as inequality, poverty, and cultural instability. Teachers, as key facilitators in the learning process, are central to achieving educational goals, with performance influenced by internal factors like self-efficacy and external factors like organizational climate and leadership style. This study examines the influence of organizational climate and transformational leadership on teacher performance at SMK 3 Sukawati, with self-efficacy as a mediating variable. The population and sample include all 55 teachers, selected through purposive sampling. Data were collected via questionnaires, interviews, and documentation, then analyzed using path analysis. Results show that organizational climate and transformational leadership positively and significantly affect both teacher performance and self-efficacy. Self-efficacy also positively and significantly influences performance. Additionally, organizational climate and transformational leadership indirectly impact teacher performance through self-efficacy.

This study aims to analyze cash management practices in Batik MSMEs in Cirebon Regency using a qualitative approach that combines direct observation and in-depth interviews with business owners. The study found that most Batik MSMEs still rely on manual cash management systems, which ultimately poses various challenges, particularly in terms of unstructured financial recording and minimal cash flow planning. This condition makes it difficult to communicate receipts and expenditures in real time, potentially leading to errors in fund management and disrupting business financial stability. Furthermore, the study revealed variations in cash receipt recording methods, such as daily or weekly recording, which are inconsistent across MSMEs. This impacts transparency and effective financial control. The lack of thorough cash flow planning also makes it difficult for business owners to deal with insufficient liquidity, especially when there is a surge in sales or sudden needs. As a result, some MSMEs experience problems meeting their payment obligations on time, including to suppliers and employees. The findings of this study highlight the importance of financial literacy education for Batik MSMEs so they can understand the basic concepts of cash management well. Furthermore, the use of digital technology, such as simple financial recording applications, is highly recommended to improve efficiency and accuracy in cash flow management. This technology implementation is expected to assist MSMEs in making more informed financial decisions and supporting the long-term sustainability of their businesses. Therefore, this study provides strategic recommendations for local governments and MSME support institutions to provide adequate training and technological facilities to strengthen financial management capacity in the batik MSME sector in Cirebon Regency.

This article examines Ibn Khaldun's philosophical perspective on wages and its relevance to the wage system in Indonesia in the modern era. Ibn Khaldun, a prominent 14th-century Muslim thinker, emphasized that wages are closely linked to the value of work, social justice, and the economic stability of a society. In his Muqaddimah, he emphasized that establishing fair wages is not merely an economic issue but also a moral and social pillar that can prevent societal disintegration. Equitable wages, he argued, must be able to guarantee a decent living for workers and their families, while also supporting continued productivity and social cohesion. This study uses a qualitative normative approach through content analysis of relevant texts in the Muqaddimah and comparing them with wage policies in Indonesia, including minimum wage regulations, labor protection, and welfare policies. Data were obtained from library research, national regulations, and recent academic literature on wage policies. The results of the study indicate that although Indonesia has a minimum wage regulation, its implementation still faces significant challenges, particularly in ensuring fairness for informal sector and low-income workers. Factors such as regional economic inequality, inflation, and weak labor oversight often undermine the effectiveness of these policies. By revisiting the principles of Ibn Khaldun, this article offers the perspective that ideal wages should not only be measured by labor market needs but should also integrate principles of ethics, morality, and social responsibility. This integration is expected to strengthen worker welfare, increase national productivity, and maintain long-term economic stability. This study also provides a relevant philosophical framework for critiquing and reforming wage policies in Indonesia, with reference to the values of justice and welfare in classical Islamic economics.

The digital economy has significantly transformed economic growth by introducing innovations in payment systems and financial services. The modernization of payment instruments through monetary policy has enhanced the ability to control inflation and ensure financial system stability. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy and the utilization of the digital economy in maintaining financial stability in Indonesia. Using time series data from 2010 to 2024 obtained from the World Bank, this research applies the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method to examine both short-term and long-term relationships among variables, including e-money, money supply, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and credit card usage. The results show that e-money has a significant reciprocal influence on the money supply, while inflation is also affected by e-money and interest rates. The impulse response function demonstrates that the interactions among these variables tend to converge towards equilibrium over time. Variance decomposition analysis indicates that in the short term, e-money primarily drives financial stability, whereas in the medium and long term, the money supply plays a dominant role. Overall, the findings suggest that monetary policy, supported by digital economic systems, effectively enhances financial system stability in Indonesia. This research contributes to understanding the dual effect of digital payment innovations and provides recommendations for policymakers to strengthen financial inclusion, economic resilience, and macro-financial stability in the digital era.

Economic growth is a factor that influences the level of poverty, considering the increasing population which means that economic needs will also increase, so additional income is needed every year. The purpose of this thesis is to determine the effect of poverty and poverty on economic growth in Jambi Province in 2019-2023. The analysis method used is the Panel Data Regression Method. The results of the study obtained that poverty has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Jambi Province in 2019-2023, so that the hypothesis (H1) proposed by the researcher is accepted with a significance value of 0.0308 <0.05 with a t-statistic value of 2.220545. Unemployment has a positive but not significant effect on economic growth in Jambi Province in 2019-2023 in Jambi Province, so that the hypothesis (H2) proposed by the researcher is rejected with a significance value of 0.4054> 0.05 with a t-statistic value of 0.838862. Poverty (X1) and Unemployment (X2) together influence economic growth in Jambi Province in 2019-2023 in Jambi Province (Y) with a calculated F value of 2.562611 and a significant value of 0.04680 <0.05 then Ho is rejected and Ha is accepted. For this reason, the government must increase employment opportunities and the government must pay more attention to the level of poverty as well as increase economic growth. Islam hates poverty and poverty because according to Islam, economic growth, wealth is a blessing and gift from Allah SWT that must be grateful for by mankind. Poverty, poverty and economic stagnation must be eliminated so as not to endanger faith, morals and morals, even divisions in society. Increasing quality employment opportunities and reducing poverty levels are important priorities to improve the quality of life of the community and create social stability.

This study aims to analyze the influence of the money supply (M2), the BI Rate, and the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for bank credit in Indonesia. Credit demand is an important indicator in describing economic activity and financial system stability. This study uses monthly secondary data from January 2017 to December 2023. The analysis method used is Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), which allows for quantitative estimation of the linear relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The results show that the money supply (M2) has a positive and significant effect on credit demand. This suggests that increased liquidity in the economy encourages increased lending activity by the household and corporate sectors. Conversely, the BI Rate shows a negative and significant effect on credit demand, indicating that an increase in the benchmark interest rate has reduced public interest in accessing financing through banks. This finding is in line with conventional monetary theory, which states that interest rates play a crucial role in controlling aggregate demand, including credit demand. The dummy variable for the COVID-19 pandemic shows a negative but insignificant effect on credit demand. This implies that although the pandemic has had a broad social and economic impact, its impact on credit demand is relatively small when monetary variables such as M2 and the BI Rate are taken into account. Overall, the research findings confirm that monetary policy instruments, particularly controlling the money supply and interest rates, play a significant role in influencing the dynamics of credit demand in Indonesia. Meanwhile, external shocks such as the pandemic tend to be more effectively responded to through medium- and long-term fiscal and structural policies.

Based on the financial performance analysis of PT. Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) during the 2020–2023 period, the company faced significant challenges that impacted its financial condition. One of the main factors affecting the company's performance is the increase in tobacco excise duties, which has affected the cost structure and selling prices of its cigarette products. Additionally, the increasing regulatory pressure and changes in consumer behavior have posed unavoidable challenges. The decline in profitability and liquidity ratios, such as Return on Assets (ROA) and Current Ratio (CR), indicates the negative impact of these external conditions on the company’s ability to generate profit and meet short-term obligations. This decline suggests that the company is struggling to balance income and operational costs. The fluctuating solvency ratio also raises concern. Although the company manages to maintain a balance between debt and equity, these fluctuations show challenges in managing long-term assets and liabilities. Dependence on debt and rising operational costs pose risks to the company's financial stability. These fluctuations affect the company's ability to maintain liquidity and solvency in an increasingly competitive market. Trend analysis from the financial statements indicates that the company needs to strengthen its adaptation strategies and risk management to face the growing market challenges. GGRM must focus on product innovation and marketing strategies that can attract new customers while retaining existing ones. Furthermore, the company must adapt to changing regulations and evolving consumer trends. The results of this study provide important insights for stakeholders regarding the financial condition of the tobacco industry. In this challenging situation, GGRM must continue to develop more adaptive strategies to survive and thrive amidst the dynamic market and increasingly stringent regulations.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of dividend policy, capital structure, and investment opportunity set on firm value in the technology sector industry (A Study of Technology Sector Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2018 to 2022). This study uses a quantitative approach with secondary data. The population of this study consists of companies operating in the technology industry that have gone public and are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2018 to 2022. The data collection method used is secondary data. The secondary data collection method was obtained from data available at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The data processing techniques used in this study involved secondary data analysis conducted by the researcher with the assistance of E-Views 9 software. The results of this study indicate that dividend policy has a positive and significant effect on firm value, suggesting that investors in the technology sector still view dividends as a signal of financial stability. Capital structure has a positive and significant effect on firm value, indicating that optimal debt usage can enhance competitiveness and growth in the technology sector. Investment opportunities also have a positive and significant impact on firm value, as companies with high investment prospects are more attractive to investors and experience increased stock prices. Dividend policy, capital structure, and investment opportunities simultaneously have a significant impact on firm value, with firm size and profit growth as control variables that also strengthen this relationship.