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The war between India and Pakistan has had a devastating impact on the economies of both the countries directly involved and those indirectly affected. The economic impacts of this armed conflict include significant infrastructure damage, reduced production capacity, soaring inflation, rising unemployment, and reduced investment flows. This geopolitical instability has also fueled uncertainty in global financial markets, triggering a "flight to safety" phenomenon, a shift in capital and investment to countries or instruments perceived as safer, such as US government bonds or gold. For Indonesia, this situation has the potential to significantly disrupt national economic stability. One impact is a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, as investors tend to hold back or relocate their investments to more geopolitically stable countries. Furthermore, pressure on the rupiah exchange rate could increase due to global financial market volatility and a decline in international investor confidence. The conflict could also hamper Indonesia's export traffic, particularly to countries with close trade ties with India and Pakistan. Furthermore, these tensions could disrupt global supply chains, particularly for energy and food commodities, many of which pass through strategic trade routes. If the conflict drags on, the price of crude oil and other raw materials could potentially rise sharply, which in turn would increase domestic production costs. This would have a direct impact on inflation and public purchasing power. This situation further complicates the management of Indonesia's monetary and fiscal policies, which currently face significant challenges, such as the imminent maturities of large government debt and a still-widening state budget deficit. The government must take strategic steps to maintain domestic economic stability, strengthen foreign exchange reserves, and encourage export market diversification to reduce over-reliance on conflict-prone countries.

The potential war between India and Pakistan poses significant risks to the Indonesian economy, as it is expected to exacerbate uncertainty in the global financial market. Such geopolitical tensions often trigger a ‘flight to safety,’ where capital flows shift to countries considered stable, leading to reduced foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging markets like Indonesia. This scenario is likely to place additional pressure on Indonesia’s exchange rate, further destabilizing its financial position. One of the key impacts of the looming India-Pakistan war on Indonesia is its effect on monetary and fiscal management. The Indonesian government is already facing significant challenges, including managing a large amount of maturing debt and grappling with a growing budget deficit. The war would complicate these efforts, making it more difficult for the government to stabilize the economy and implement effective policies. Indonesia’s export sector will also be affected, as India and Pakistan are two of the country’s main trading partners, especially for key commodities like crude palm oil (CPO) and coal. India is Indonesia’s 4th largest export destination, accounting for approximately 9% of total exports, while Pakistan represents around 1.9%. Any disruption in trade with these countries, due to the war or political instability, could significantly hurt Indonesia’s export revenues and negatively affect industries reliant on these markets. Moreover, Indonesia is already facing challenges from the United States, which has imposed reciprocal tariffs worth 32% on Indonesian products. This trade tension, combined with the geopolitical instability from the India-Pakistan conflict, will add further strain to Indonesia’s trade balance. The combination of these factors could lead to slower economic growth, reduced investor confidence, and potentially higher inflation, as the country faces multiple external and internal economic pressures.

This study investigates the monetary transmission mechanisms influencing inflation and exchange rates across seven Southeast Asian countries (Myanmar, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) over the period 2010–2023, with special focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research addresses the problem of macroeconomic instability, particularly the volatility in inflation and currency values during crisis periods, and aims to identify the dominant monetary factors affecting these indicators. The study employs a mixed quantitative approach using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Paired Sample t-Test to analyze the short-term and long-term relationships among key variables: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment, money supply (M2), interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates. Findings reveal that GDP is the most influential factor impacting both inflation and exchange rates, followed by money supply and interest rates. The variance decomposition analysis confirms that these monetary variables significantly explain macroeconomic fluctuations in both pre- and post-pandemic contexts. The t-Test further indicates statistically significant changes in inflation and exchange rates before and after the pandemic, highlighting the disruptive effect of COVID-19 on economic stability. The results demonstrate that inflation declined significantly in most countries during the pandemic, while exchange rate behavior varied depending on economic resilience and policy responsiveness. The study concludes that maintaining macroeconomic stability requires not only monetary policy coordination but also effective public health crisis management. This research contributes to the regional policy discourse by offering empirical insights and evidence-based recommendations to strengthen economic resilience in Southeast Asia.

This research aims to systematically analyze the causes, impacts, and strategies for addressing economic recessions through the Systematic Literature Review (SLR) method. Using the PRISMA guidelines, this study identifies and synthesizes scientific literature from 2020 to 2025 that discusses economic recessions in both global and national contexts. The study results show that the economic recession is triggered by various factors such as high inflation, energy crises, global pandemics, and geopolitical tensions. The impact extends to the labor sector, the business world, and the social conditions of society, particularly on MSMEs and vulnerable groups. Effective strategies for facing a recession include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, strengthening the domestic economy, as well as technology-based innovation and multisector collaboration. These findings provide a conceptual foundation for formulating adaptive economic policies in facing future economic crises.

This article presents a theoretical review of the relationship between monetary policy and inflation rates in developing countries. High inflation remains a major challenge for developing economies due to global price fluctuations, import dependency, and weak domestic economic structures. Monetary policy instruments such as policy interest rates, open market operations, and reserve requirements play a vital role in controlling inflation, although their effectiveness is often hampered by shallow financial markets, low financial inclusion, and limited central bank credibility. Moreover, external factors such as imported inflation reduce the ability of monetary policy to maintain price stability. This study highlights the importance of digital innovation, including the use of big data, digital payment systems, and real-time analytics to enhance monetary policy effectiveness. It concludes that structural reforms, stronger central bank credibility, and strategic adoption of digital innovation are essential to achieve price stability and sustainable economic growth in the globalization era.

This study aims to analyze the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Indonesia. Monetary policy is an important instrument in maintaining macroeconomic stability and supporting growth, through regulating interest rates, money supply, minimum reserve requirements, and open market operations. This study uses a qualitative descriptive approach by analyzing the role of each monetary indicator and its impact on the real sector. The results of the study indicate that effectively implemented monetary policy is able to stabilize inflation, regulate banking liquidity, maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, and support sustainable economic growth. In addition, the implementation of a dual monetary system in Indonesia provides additional flexibility in monetary management. This study also emphasizes the importance of harmonious coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in order to create optimal synergy in achieving national economic goals.    

This study aims to analyze the impact of monetary policy on income inequality in Indonesia over a certain period of time. Monetary policy implemented by Bank Indonesia plays an important role in maintaining macroeconomic stability through instruments such as interest rates, inflation, and the amount of money in circulation. However, the implementation of this policy also has an impact on the distribution of community income. This study uses a quantitative approach with secondary data in the form of time series analyzed using econometric regression methods to measure the effect of monetary policy variables on the income inequality index (Gini Ratio). The results of the study show that variables such as the benchmark interest rate and inflation have a significant relationship to income inequality. When inflation increases, the purchasing power of the lower middle class decreases more sharply than the upper class, thus widening the gap in inequality. Conversely, controlling inflation through appropriate interest rates can help reduce economic disparities. This study provides important meaning for policy makers to pay more attention to the distribution aspect in determining monetary policy so that economic growth can be more inclusive and equitable.

Profitability, measured by Return on Asset (ROA), is a key indicator for assessing the performance and resilience of the banking sector. During the 2019–2023 period, the Indonesian banking sector faced significant pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic, which impacted asset quality and financial performance. This study aims to analyze the simultaneous and partial effects of Non-Performing Loan (NPL), the BI Rate, inflation, Net Interest Margin (NIM), and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) on the ROA of commercial banks in Indonesia. This research employs a quantitative approach using monthly secondary data from 2019 to 2023. The analysis was conducted using Robust Least Squares (RLS) with M-estimation, a Wald test for simultaneous significance, and a z-statistic for partial tests. The results indicate that, simultaneously, the five independent variables have a significant effect on ROA with a significance value of 0,000 and a coefficient of determination of 67,1 percent. Partially, NPL has a significant negative effect on ROA, while NIM, CAR, and inflation have significant positive effects. The BI Rate shows no significant influence. The implications of these findings highlight the managerial importance of strengthening credit risk management to control NPL, enhancing intermediation efficiency to maintain a healthy NIM, and preserving capital adequacy. From a policy perspective, these results justify the continued strengthening of prudential supervision over banks' internal ratios by financial authorities. Furthermore, the insignificance of the BI Rate suggests that the monetary policy transmission to bank profitability is indirect, necessitating a focus on internal factors to maintain the stability of the banking sector.

This research is an attempt to analyze and measure the impact of structural shocks to the US dollar exchange rate on the performance indicators of the Iraqi economy during the limited period (2004 to 2022) using the Kaldor square framework, which is based on four main components (economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and trade balance). Analytical and quantitative methods were rummage-sale to reveal the countryside of the relationship between these variables, through analyzing annual data and key economic indicators, using standard economic models and applying the (SVAR) technique. The study concluded that structural shocks to the exchange rate had varying effects on the components of the Kaldor square. The results showed a strong relationship between the exchange rate, economic growth, and the trade balance, while its impact on unemployment and inflation varied depending on the time period and political and economic developments. The study recommends adopting flexible monetary and fiscal policies that contribute to reducing exchange rate volatility and enhancing macroeconomic stability, which positively impacts sustainable structural growth.Inflation

Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have an important role in the Indonesian economy, especially in facing economic crises such as the 1998 monetary crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. MSMEs are at the forefront in creating jobs and contributing to economic growth, even though they face various challenges, including capital problems. This research uses a qualitative approach with a case study type. This research uses primary data collected from interviews with the owner of Pajeng Cokelat. Pajeng Cokelat is a micro business located in Blitar and makes various kinds of processed chocolate to be used as snacks. The owner of Pajeng Cokelat is active in participating in training activities aimed at improving skills both related to marketing and the products produced. The results of this research highlight the government's efforts to overcome capital problems through programs such as People's Business Credit (KUR) and business training. However, increasing financial literacy is needed, especially in the context of sharia finance, to support the sustainable growth of MSMEs. By overcoming these challenges, MSMEs can continue to play a role in driving the national economy.

This study examines the impact of rising commodity prices on household expenditure patterns from the perspective of conventional economic literature. The review method is used to trace and synthesize the findings of studies published nationally in the last five years. The main objective is to analyze how inflationary pressures on basic necessities such as food, fuel, and housing affect expenditure shifts. The review reveals that rising prices of basic products cause families to reduce discretionary spending, allocate budgets, and occupy lower welfare levels. This study contributes to policy recommendations by identifying the most important expenditure factors and recommending targeted social protection. This conceptual article promotes the role of fiscal and monetary stability in fostering household purchasing power in developing countries such as Indonesia. The impact on the economic bottom line is considered in great depth, strengthening the role of price controls, subsidies, and income redistribution activities..

This study aims to conduct customer segmentation and develop a classification model to predict the clusters of new customers at Monex Toys Abadi Bekasi, a micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME). Segmentation was performed using the K-Means Clustering algorithm, incorporating parameters such as Recency, Frequency, Monetary (RFM), purchased products, payment methods, shipping cost discounts, and the total number of products purchased by customers. The segmentation results revealed two clusters: (1) Discount Hunters and (2) Loyal Customers. Subsequently, a classification process was conducted to predict customer clusters using the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms. Evaluation results indicated that all models achieved high accuracy exceeding 98%. The best-performing model was obtained with SVM using a 70:30 data split, achieving an accuracy of 98.81%. This classification model was then implemented into a Streamlit-based cluster prediction application, enabling users to identify customer segments in real-time. The findings of this research are expected to assist MSMEs in understanding customer behavior, enhancing service quality, and supporting more effective marketing strategies.

Financial distress refers to a company’s persistent inability to meet financial obligations, signaling severe monetary strain that precedes formal bankruptcy or liquidation proceedings. This study investigates the impact of intellectual capital (VAICTM), operational capacity (TATO), capital structure (DER), and operating cash flow (OCF) on financial distress (Altman Z-Score), with profitability (ROA) serving as a mediating variable. The theoretical framework of this research is grounded in signaling theory, agency theory, and resource-based view theory. The study focuses on basic materials companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) between 2019 and 2023. The study utilized criterion-based sampling to select qualified respondents. Secondary datasets were analyzed through panel regression and path analysis, with Eviews 12 as the computational tool. Key findings include: (1) intellectual capital and operating capacity demonstrate a statistically significant positive influence on profitability; (2) capital structure exerts a significant adverse impact on profitability; (3) operating cash flow exhibits no statistically discernible impact on profitability; (4) both operating cash flow and profitability are positively and significantly associated with increased financial distress; (5) capital structure displays a significant inverse relationship with financial distress severity; (6) intellectual capital and operating capacity show no statistically significant associations with direct financial distress prediction; (7) profitability partially mediates the influence of intellectual capital, operating capacity, and capital structure on financial distress; and (8) profitability does not serve as a mediating variable between operating cash flow and financial distress.

This research explores how several monetary policy and commodities market influence the movement of the Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG). Monetary policy is a set of actions taken by the central bank to regulate the currency and the economy, variable proxy is Rupiah Exchange Rate (Jisdor) and Indonesia Overnight Index Average (indONIA). Commodity markets are places where commodities are traded in physical or futures, the needs of the world still depend on certain commodities so that commodity prices can be related to economic conditions, variable proxy of comodities market is Gold, Crude Oil WTI, Coal Newcastle. Indonesia Composite Index is a index that reflects the price movements of all stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study analyzes monthly data from January 2019 to December 2023, a period before the global disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic, the period during the pandemic and the gradual economic rebound that followed. Using multiple linear regression analysis, the study assesses the direction and statistical relevance of each variable’s effect on the Indonesia Composite Index. The results suggest that Indonesia Overnight Index Average and Crude Oil WTI prices have a significant positive impact on the index, the Rupiah Exchange Rate has a significant negative impact on the index, while Gold and Coal Newcastle have no significant impact on the index. These findings can serve as a useful reference for both investors and policymakers in understanding and anticipating movements in Indonesia’s capital market, especially in relation to monetary policy and global commodity trends.

Public transportation, with Transjakarta as its main pillar, requires a deep understanding of customer behavior to improve service quality and maintain loyalty. This study aims to segment Transjakarta customers using data mining techniques, specifically the K-Means Clustering algorithm, based on the RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary/Value) behavioral model. 37,900 rows of raw transaction data were processed into a clean database, resulting in 1,917 unique customers for analysis. The RFM metrics were then normalized using Min-Max Scaler. The optimal number of clusters was evaluated using the Elbow Curve and Silhouette Score Methods, which led to the determination of k = 4 clusters. The segmentation results identified four customer groups requiring specific strategies: Cluster 3 (Champions) with high R, F, and V (requiring rewards and retention); Cluster 0 (Active, Low Value) with high R and F but low V (requiring upsells and cross-sells); Cluster 1 (Potential/At-Risk); and Cluster 2 (Dormant/Lost). Preliminary analysis (EDA) showed that nearly half of customers (49.3%) used Bank DKI cards, dominated by the productive age group (25–45 years old), with the Rusun Kapuk Muara–Penjaringan route being the busiest. The main managerial recommendation is to strengthen the partnership with Bank DKI and optimize services in this busy corridor.

This article comprehensively examines the impact of inflation on the welfare of Indonesian society from a public economics perspective. High inflation has been proven to erode purchasing power, widen economic inequality, and worsen quality of life, especially for fixed- and low-income groups. Rising prices of basic necessities force households to sacrifice spending on education and health, increasing the risk of poverty and lowering the human development index. Inflation also creates economic uncertainty, hampers investment, and triggers social conflict due to public unrest. Empirical studies indicate that every 1% increase in inflation can reduce real purchasing power by up to 2.3% and increase the number of poor people. To mitigate these regressive effects, integration of monetary, fiscal, and adaptive social protection policies is required. The experience of Indonesia and other countries underscores the importance of inter-institutional synergy and evidence-based interventions to maintain price stability and equitable welfare. In conclusion, inflation control should be seen as a long-term investment in human development and social justice, not merely as a macroeconomic stability target.

This study uses a quantitative associative technique to examine how Indonesia's digital economy contributes to economic growth. For the years 2014–2023, secondary data were acquired from the Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia, and the World Bank. The Two-Stage Least Square (TSLS) method and a simultaneous model with two equations were used to analyze the impact of monetary variables (interest rates, money supply, and inflation) and digital economy variables (internet users, e-commerce growth, and e-money users) on economic growth. The findings indicate that while e-commerce expansion and inflation have a negligible negative impact on economic growth, internet and e-money users have a large beneficial impact. In the meanwhile, inflation is significantly impacted positively by the money supply and negatively by interest rates and economic growth. These results highlight how crucial it is to manage monetary factors and improve digital infrastructure in order to promote Indonesia's economic growth in the digital age.

This study examines the contribution of the thoughts of three important figures in modern Islamic economics, namely Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, Ibrahim Umar Vadillo, and M. Umer Chapra. Using a qualitative approach through literature study, this research critically analyzes their works and ideas. The results of the study show that the three of them built three main pillars of the contemporary Islamic economic paradigm. The first pillar is normative-ethical which is asserted by al-Sadr, emphasizing the value of justice and ethics. The second pillar is the structural-monetary of Vadillo, who proposes a gold dinar and silver dirham-based monetary system for economic stability. The third pillar is Chapra's maqashid-policy, which emphasizes the application of sharia's maqashid principles to realize social welfare and economic justice. These three pillars complement each other in forming the foundation of an integral, applicable and relevant Islamic economy to face global challenges. This research makes an important contribution in formulating an adaptive and sharia-based Islamic economic framework.

This study aims to describe the success strategy of the Dodol Deli business, an MSME that has existed since 1988 in Pasar Bengkel, Serdang Bedagai Regency. This business is an example of traditional business resilience in the face of various economic challenges, ranging from the 1998 monetary crisis, road infrastructure development, to the COVID-19 pandemic. This research uses a descriptive qualitative method with a case study approach, through direct interviews with business owners. The results show that the success of Dodol Deli is influenced by strong entrepreneurial character, product innovation, efficient production management, and adaptive marketing strategies, including the utilization of social media. In addition, the decision not to use preservatives and not to rely on modern retail systems is an added value in maintaining product authenticity and customer loyalty. Dodol Deli also demonstrates healthy self-financing practices and receives support through non-cash assistance from the government. These findings reinforce the importance of a combination of local values, business independence, and technological adaptation as keys to MSME sustainability.

In the first quarter of 2025, the Indonesian rupiah experienced a significant depreciation, weakening from approximately IDR 15,800 per USD in January to IDR 17,200 per USD by the end of March 2025. This study aims to identify and analyze the external and domestic factors contributing to the rupiah’s decline during this period. External pressure mainly stemmed from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance—maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 5.25%–5.50% which triggered capital outflows from emerging markets. Additionally, global geopolitical uncertainty, including tensions in Eastern Europe and trade frictions between the U.S. and China, raised the global risk premium and strengthened the U.S. dollar against the rupiah. On the domestic side, Indonesia’s trade deficit widened to USD 3.2 billion in Q1 2025 due to rising energy import demand amid surging global oil prices. Furthermore, the state budget deficit increased to IDR 104.2 trillion by March 2025 up 20% year on year undermining investor confidence. Using a qualitative descriptive method through content analysis of reports from Bank Indonesia, BPS trade statistics, and relevant media sources, this study finds that the combination of elevated U.S. interest rates, geopolitical tensions, trade imbalances, and fiscal deficits accelerated the depreciation of the rupiah. Policy recommendations include targeted foreign exchange intervention by Bank Indonesia, monetary tightening in line with global trends, fiscal consolidation to reduce the budget deficit, and export diversification to mitigate external shocks.