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Khema Devi; I Nyoman Wijana Asmara Putra

International Journal of Management 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

Financial distress refers to a condition where a company experiences financial difficulties and if it is not resolved immediately, it will lead to bankruptcy. Several models can be used to measure financial distress, one of which is the Zmijewski model. This study aims to analyze the influence of financial ratios and macroeconomic factors on financial distress among technology companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The research was conducted at technology companies listed on the IDX for the 2020–2024 period, with a sample size of 44 companies selected using a purposive sampling method. The study employed secondary data derived from company financial statements obtained through the official IDX website and analyzed using SPSS version 27. The findings reveal that financial ratios specifically, profitability (ROE) have a significant negative effect on financial distress, while leverage (DER) has a significant positive effect. Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rates have no effect on financial distress.

Amalia Nur Azizah; Elmira Siska

Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Digital Terkini 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the influence of inflation and interest rates on banking profitability as measured through Return on Assets (ROA) in conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2020–2024 period. The research was conducted from April to May 2025 with a quantitative approach and multiple linear regression analysis methods. The data used are secondary data obtained from the annual financial statements of eight conventional banks as well as macroeconomic data from Bank Indonesia, which were selected through the purposive sampling method. The data analysis process includes descriptive statistics, classical assumption test, t test, F test, and determination coefficient. The results of the study show that partially, neither inflation nor interest rates have a significant effect on ROA. This is shown by the value of t calculating inflation of 0.049 < t table 2.02619 with a significance of 0.961 > 0.05, and t calculating interest rates of 1.163 < t table 2.02619 with a significance of 0.252 > 0.05. However, simultaneously, inflation and interest rates have a significant effect on ROA, as shown by the calculated F value of 8.698 > F table 3.25 and the significance of 0.001 < 0.05. These findings indicate that although individual macroeconomic variables do not have a significant impact, together they have an influence on banking profitability. This research contributes to policy makers and banking industry players in understanding macroeconomic dynamics on banks' financial performance.

Nindia Puspa Alfiani; Lia Nazliana Nasution; Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty

Proceeding of the International Conference on Economics, Accounting, and Taxation 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study uses a quantitative associative approach to analyze the influence of exports, imports, inflation, and exchange rates on economic growth in five ASEAN member countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The data used are secondary data obtained from the World Bank for the period 2013–2023. The analysis technique used is the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) Model, which begins with stationarity and cointegration tests. Results The ARDL Panel Model estimation in this study is declared valid because it meets the main requirements, namely having a cointegrated lag with a negative coefficient value of -0.831550 and significant at the 5% significance level (probability 0.0000 < 0.05). The long-term estimation results indicate that only the inflation variable has a significant influence on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the 5 ASEAN countries studied. Meanwhile, in the short term, no variables were found to have a significant influence on GDP in the 5 countries. Furthermore, country-level estimations show varying results. Indonesia is the only country that shows a significant influence of exports, imports, inflation, and exchange rates on GDP. Thailand shows a significant influence of exports and exchange rates, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam do not show any significant influence of exports, imports, inflation, and exchange rates on GDP. These findings reflect that the relationship between macroeconomic variables and economic growth in ASEAN countries is heterogeneous and is strongly influenced by the structural characteristics of each country.

Nur Anisah; Dewi Fadila; Hendra Sastrawinata

Jurnal Bisnis Kreatif dan Inovatif 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the financial performance of PT ABC Tbk during the period 2019–2023 using the Du Pont System as the primary analytical tool. The Du Pont System is widely recognized as a comprehensive method to evaluate a company’s overall performance by breaking down profitability into several key components: net profit margin, total asset turnover, return on investment (ROI), equity multiplier, and return on equity (ROE). The research employs a descriptive quantitative approach, with data sourced from secondary materials in the form of official financial statements published by the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). A purposive sampling technique was applied to ensure the relevance and accuracy of the data analyzed. The findings reveal that the company’s financial performance throughout the five-year observation period has been less than optimal. Each of the main components of the Du Pont System showed average ratios that fell below the industry benchmark, indicating structural weaknesses in both profitability and efficiency. Specifically, the net profit margin and total asset turnover were constrained by high operational costs, while ROI and ROE were further pressured by volatility in foreign exchange rates. These inefficiencies highlight the vulnerability of the company’s financial structure to both internal management challenges and external macroeconomic factors. Based on the results, the study provides several strategic recommendations to improve financial performance. First, optimization of cost management is necessary to reduce operational inefficiencies that directly affect profit margins. Second, the implementation of foreign exchange risk mitigation strategies, such as hedging, is suggested to minimize the negative impacts of currency fluctuations. Finally, to strengthen revenue growth, the company is encouraged to adopt and expand digital marketing initiatives as a means of improving sales performance and market penetration. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of integrating financial control with strategic innovation to ensure long-term sustainability and competitiveness in the pharmaceutical industry.

Wanda Alyzza Fitri; Neneng Miskiyah; Agung Anggoro Seto

Jurnal Bisnis Kreatif dan Inovatif 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to evaluate the financial condition of four private banks, namely Bank Mega, Bank JTrust, Bank Danamon, and Bank Panin listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2015 to 2024. The analysis uses the Risk-Based Bank Rating (RBBR) approach with a quantitative method, where the data source is derived from published annual financial statements. The sampling technique was carried out by purposive sampling with the criteria of financial statements available for the last 10 years and the fluctuations in profits in the last three years. The bank's health assessment is carried out through four main aspects. First, the risk profile is measured using non-performing loan (NPL) ratios and liquidity levels through the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR). Second, Good Corporate Governance (GCG) is evaluated based on regulatory compliance and transparency reporting. Third, profitability which includes the return on asset ratio (ROA) and net interest margin (Net Interest Margin / NIM). Fourth, the capital aspect is analyzed through the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). The results of the study show that in general, the four banks are in a healthy condition, especially in terms of capital and governance, which reflects the bank's ability to meet the minimum capital requirements and maintain management practices in accordance with banking industry standards. However, significant differences were found in the risk and profitability aspects. Banks that have less than optimal risk management tend to experience an increase in NPLs, while banks that are more efficient in managing operational costs are able to maintain ROA and NIM at a more stable level. In addition, external factors such as global economic conditions, monetary policy, interest rates, and interbank competition also affect financial performance.

Eva Fadilah; Enji Azizi

International Journal of Management and Strategic Business Leadership 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This research seeks to examine the impact of inflation and exchange rates on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2019 to 2024. The study uses secondary monthly data for inflation, exchange rates, and the JCI, which were sourced from the official websites of Bank Indonesia and IDX. A quantitative approach is employed, utilizing multiple linear regression analysis along with classical assumption tests and both simultaneous and partial hypothesis testing. The findings reveal that, individually, both inflation and exchange rates have a significant effect on the JCI. When analyzed together, inflation and exchange rates also significantly influence the JCI. These results underscore the importance of macroeconomic stability, particularly the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, in shaping stock market trends in Indonesia. The study suggests that fluctuations in the inflation rate and the exchange rate can lead to uncertainty in the stock market, impacting investor decisions and market performance. These findings are particularly relevant in the context of Indonesia’s open economy, where external factors and global economic conditions can also influence domestic financial markets. This research aims to offer valuable insights to investors, policymakers, and academics, helping them understand how key macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and exchange rates, influence the dynamics of the capital market. The study emphasizes the need for maintaining economic stability to foster a conducive environment for market growth and investor confidence. By analyzing these macroeconomic factors, the study provides a clearer understanding of their role in stock market performance and offers a foundation for future research and policy development in the Indonesian financial market. Additionally, the results of this research could serve as a basis for further studies that explore the relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market behavior in emerging markets.

Irfan Fauji; Bachtiar Efendi

International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

The digital economy has significantly transformed economic growth by introducing innovations in payment systems and financial services. The modernization of payment instruments through monetary policy has enhanced the ability to control inflation and ensure financial system stability. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy and the utilization of the digital economy in maintaining financial stability in Indonesia. Using time series data from 2010 to 2024 obtained from the World Bank, this research applies the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method to examine both short-term and long-term relationships among variables, including e-money, money supply, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and credit card usage. The results show that e-money has a significant reciprocal influence on the money supply, while inflation is also affected by e-money and interest rates. The impulse response function demonstrates that the interactions among these variables tend to converge towards equilibrium over time. Variance decomposition analysis indicates that in the short term, e-money primarily drives financial stability, whereas in the medium and long term, the money supply plays a dominant role. Overall, the findings suggest that monetary policy, supported by digital economic systems, effectively enhances financial system stability in Indonesia. This research contributes to understanding the dual effect of digital payment innovations and provides recommendations for policymakers to strengthen financial inclusion, economic resilience, and macro-financial stability in the digital era.

Norsiah, Siti; Pratiwi, Adhitya Putri

Jurnal Ekonomi, Akuntansi, dan Perpajakan 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to examine the effect of Thin Capitalization, Sales Growth, and Capital Intensity on Tax Avoidance, with Institutional Ownership as a moderating variable in coal sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2019–2023 period. The background of this study is based on the importance of tax management as a company efficiency strategy, while maintaining compliance with tax regulations. The coal industry was chosen because of its capital-intensive characteristics, fluctuating sales growth rates, and the tendency of companies to engage in aggressive tax planning. The research method uses a quantitative approach with a purposive sampling technique, resulting in 50 company samples during the observation period. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression with the help of E-Views 13 software to test the direct relationship between variables, and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) to test the role of Institutional Ownership as a moderating variable. The results show that Thin Capitalization has no significant effect on Tax Avoidance, which indicates that high debt ratios are not always utilized by companies to reduce tax burdens. Capital Intensity also had no significant effect on Tax Avoidance, indicating that the size of fixed asset investments does not directly influence tax avoidance practices. Conversely, Sales Growth had a significant positive effect on Tax Avoidance, indicating that high sales growth tends to encourage companies to optimize tax-saving strategies. Furthermore, the results of the moderation test revealed that Institutional Ownership did not moderate the relationship between Thin Capitalization, Sales Growth, or Capital Intensity on Tax Avoidance. This finding suggests that the supervisory role of institutional shareholders is ineffective in limiting or influencing tax avoidance strategies in coal companies. This research provides implications for regulators and investors to consider non-financial factors and governance mechanisms in efforts to control tax avoidance practices in strategic sectors like coal.

Muammar Khaddafi; Nurul Monika Larasati; Mega Yuwanda; Trie Yolanda Sari

Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Digital Terkini 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

Indonesia’s Islamic capital market has experienced remarkable growth in recent years, evidenced by the increasing number of investors and the rising market capitalization of Sharia-compliant stocks. This article aims to analyze the performance and management strategies of Sharia stock portfolios by reviewing academic literature published in Indonesia between 2019 and 2024. Utilizing a literature review methodology, the study compares the return and risk characteristics of Sharia stocks with those of conventional stocks. It also evaluates the applicability and effectiveness of classical portfolio theories—namely, the Markowitz Model and the Single Index Model—in managing Sharia-compliant investments. The findings reveal that Sharia stock portfolios often perform competitively and tend to exhibit greater resilience and stability during financial crises. This resilience is attributed in part to the rigorous stock screening mechanisms that comply with Islamic principles, excluding sectors and companies that do not meet Sharia criteria. Additionally, various macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and global economic fluctuations are found to impact the performance of Islamic stock portfolios. The article highlights that while Sharia investments align with ethical and religious values, they also offer practical advantages in risk management and diversification. Furthermore, digital technology and fintech innovation are seen as essential tools to enhance transparency, accessibility, and investor engagement in the Islamic capital market. The study concludes that the development of Sharia-compliant stock investments in Indonesia holds promising potential, especially if accompanied by improved financial literacy, inclusive investor education, and stronger technological infrastructure. This paper offers valuable insights for policymakers, market regulators, and investors interested in promoting sustainable and faith-based financial practices within Indonesia’s rapidly evolving capital market ecosystem.

Amin Hou; Darwin Lie; Nagian Tony

Proceeding of the International Conference on Electrical Engineering and Informatics 2025 Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

This study investigates the monetary transmission mechanisms influencing inflation and exchange rates across seven Southeast Asian countries (Myanmar, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) over the period 2010–2023, with special focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research addresses the problem of macroeconomic instability, particularly the volatility in inflation and currency values during crisis periods, and aims to identify the dominant monetary factors affecting these indicators. The study employs a mixed quantitative approach using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Paired Sample t-Test to analyze the short-term and long-term relationships among key variables: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment, money supply (M2), interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates. Findings reveal that GDP is the most influential factor impacting both inflation and exchange rates, followed by money supply and interest rates. The variance decomposition analysis confirms that these monetary variables significantly explain macroeconomic fluctuations in both pre- and post-pandemic contexts. The t-Test further indicates statistically significant changes in inflation and exchange rates before and after the pandemic, highlighting the disruptive effect of COVID-19 on economic stability. The results demonstrate that inflation declined significantly in most countries during the pandemic, while exchange rate behavior varied depending on economic resilience and policy responsiveness. The study concludes that maintaining macroeconomic stability requires not only monetary policy coordination but also effective public health crisis management. This research contributes to the regional policy discourse by offering empirical insights and evidence-based recommendations to strengthen economic resilience in Southeast Asia.

Indra Alie Wijaya; Ni Ketut Rasmini

International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, on the Indonesian capital market, particularly on the stocks listed in the LQ45 index, as well as on exchange rates and cryptocurrency trading volumes. The research employs a quantitative approach using an event study method, focusing on a 15-day observation window—comprising 7 days before, the day of, and 7 days after the invasion event. The variables analyzed include abnormal return (AR), trading volume activity (TVA), exchange rates, and cryptocurrency transaction volume. The research sample consists of issuers listed in the LQ45 index and the three largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether (USDT)—selected through purposive sampling. The findings indicate that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had a significant impact on abnormal returns and trading volume activity of LQ45 stocks, as well as on exchange rates and cryptocurrency trading volumes. This geopolitical event emerged as an external factor contributing to market uncertainty, prompting investors to adjust their investment strategies in both stock markets and digital assets. These findings confirm that global conflicts are closely linked to the dynamics of domestic financial markets.

Fritzco Fernando; Amrita Nugraheni Saraswaty

International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

In recent years, both global and domestic economic uncertainties have increasingly influenced the movement of Indonesia’s JCI and GDP. This study aims to examine how various factors including news sentiment, exchange rates, and interest rates affect the JCI as a proxy for economic growth expectations, and GDP as a reflection of actual economic growth. Using quarterly data from 2016 to 2024, the analysis is conducted through the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to identify both short-term and long-term effects. The results show that these variables collectively have a significant impact on both the JCI and GDP. In the short term, the JCI is found to respond more quickly to changes in information and policy, reinforcing its role as a leading indicator. In contrast, GDP responds more slowly, with exchange rates and the BI interest rate showing a significant influence in the long term. These findings highlight that economic information and policies may affect the financial market and the real economy differently, underscoring the importance of understanding expectation dynamics in assessing the direction of Indonesia’s economic growth.

Putri Pratiwi; Silvia Fardila Soliha

JURNAL ILMIAH EKONOMI DAN BISNIS 2025 LPPM Universitas Sains dan Teknologi Komputer

Macroeconomic uncertainty poses a structural challenge for the sustainability of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia. Fluctuations in inflation, benchmark interest rates, and exchange rates have a direct impact on liquidity, cost structures, and investment decisions. This study aims to explore the types of financial strategies adopted by MSMEs in response to macroeconomic pressures using a systematic literature review and secondary data analysis covering the period from 2019 to May 2024. Data were sourced from official national institutions, including the Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Cooperatives and MSMEs, as well as relevant academic literature. The findings reveal that MSME financial strategies can be categorized into three key domains: cash management, cost control, and investment planning. MSMEs employing flexible strategies—such as increasing cash buffers, reducing operational costs, and diversifying products or financing sources—demonstrate higher resilience in the face of economic volatility. This study contributes theoretically by enriching the framework of financial adaptation for MSMEs and practically by informing financial literacy programs and policy design. The study also acknowledges limitations in the use of aggregate secondary data and recommends that future research adopt a mixed-method approach to capture undocumented informal financial practices at the grassroots level

Jusniwati Zai; Reydel Baginsa Lahagu; Mardiana Halawa; Romana Rinda Nazara

Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Indonesia. Monetary policy is an important instrument in maintaining macroeconomic stability and supporting growth, through regulating interest rates, money supply, minimum reserve requirements, and open market operations. This study uses a qualitative descriptive approach by analyzing the role of each monetary indicator and its impact on the real sector. The results of the study indicate that effectively implemented monetary policy is able to stabilize inflation, regulate banking liquidity, maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, and support sustainable economic growth. In addition, the implementation of a dual monetary system in Indonesia provides additional flexibility in monetary management. This study also emphasizes the importance of harmonious coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in order to create optimal synergy in achieving national economic goals.    

Erlina Waruwu; Dyah Palupiningtyas

Jurnal Ilmiah Komputerisasi Akuntansi 2025 Universitas Sains dan Teknologi Komputer

This study aims to analyze the comparison of solvency levels and claim payment abilities between two general insurance companies in Indonesia, PT Asuransi Dayin Mitra Tbk (ASDM) and PT Asuransi Jasa Tania Tbk (ASJT), considering the macroeconomic conditions in 2023. The methods used are qualitative and quantitative comparative analyses based on the audited financial statements and annual reports of both companies, as well as a review of macroeconomic data from official sources. The findings indicate that ASDM and ASJT managed to achieve positive performance despite economic challenges, with ASJT recording higher growth in premiums and net income. Both companies maintained solvency ratios above regulatory thresholds and controlled claims ratios. Business strategy adaptation, sound governance, and effective risk management contributed to these achievements. Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates were found to influence the performance of both companies, with varying levels of sensitivity depending on their market segment focus. These findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the insurance business in Indonesia and highlight opportunities and challenges that industry stakeholders need to anticipate..

Ni Putu Kartika Cahyani; Ni Putu Santi Suryantini

International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

Stock return refers to the gain that investors may obtain when allocating their funds in the capital market. The stock returns of infrastructure sector companies experienced consecutive declines over the three-year period from 2021 to 2023. These declines may be attributed to both internal and external factors affecting the companies. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of profitability, liquidity, inflation, and interest rates on stock returns. This research was conducted on infrastructure sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2021–2023. The study employed quantitative data derived from secondary sources published by the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Bank Indonesia. The sample comprised all 56 companies in the population, selected using a saturated sampling method. The research employed a non-participant observation method. The analytical technique used was multiple linear regression. The results show that profitability has a positive and significant effect on stock returns, while liquidity, inflation, and interest rates do not have a significant effect on stock returns. These findings suggest that profitability serves as an important signal for investors when making investment decisions.

Banafsyah Imanda Safa; Diana Oktavia Kholimah Wati; Vidinia Nuansa Citra; Felisya Natalia Purwanto; Maria Yovita R. Pandin

Journal of Administrative and Sosial Science (JASS) 2025 Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Administrasi (STIA) Yappi Makassar

This study aims to examine the impact of systematic risk and interest rates on the stock returns of state-owned banks (Bank BUMN) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2021–2023. Using a multiple linear regression approach, the study finds that neither systematic risk nor interest rates have a significant partial or joint effect on the stock returns of Bank BUMN. These findings indicate that in the context of the Indonesian stock market—particularly the state-owned banking sector—these factors may not necessarily be the primary determinants in shaping stock returns. The implication of these results is the importance of considering other variables that may play a greater role in explaining stock return movements, such as firm-specific microeconomic factors and investor expectations regarding the banks’ fundamental performance.

Aristia Kamal; Fanlia Prima Jaya; Syamsuddinnor Syamsuddinnor

Jurnal Manuhara : Pusat Penelitian Ilmu Manajemen dan Bisnis 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

Using a case study of the Food and Beverage industry listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) between 2017 and 2022, this study seeks to examine the partial impact of financial performance on stock prices through Earnings Per Share (EPS). Ratios like Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), EPS, and share prices are used to gauge financial performance. Using a saturated sampling method, 18 firms were chosen for the sample. Using a quantitative technique with a descriptive approach, this study performs data analysis using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with the aid of SmartPLS version 3. 0. According to the study's findings, ROA has a considerable impact on EPS but not on share values. ROE has no discernible impact on stock prices or EPS. Nevertheless, EPS is shown to be a mediating variable between ROA and ROE, both of which have a substantial impact on share values. Improving the efficiency and effectiveness of financial management is one of the recommendations, particularly in areas that have an impact on EPS, such as capital structure and profitability. When making investment decisions, investors should pay attention to financial performance metrics like stock values, EPS, ROA, and ROE. To gain a more thorough analysis, future academics are urged to consider more variables, such the Price to Earnings Ratio, Dividend Payout Ratio, and external elements such as inflation and interest rates.

Ashabi Witjaksono

Jurnal Bisnis, Ekonomi Syariah, dan Pajak 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

In the first quarter of 2025, the Indonesian rupiah experienced a significant depreciation, weakening from approximately IDR 15,800 per USD in January to IDR 17,200 per USD by the end of March 2025. This study aims to identify and analyze the external and domestic factors contributing to the rupiah’s decline during this period. External pressure mainly stemmed from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance—maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 5.25%–5.50% which triggered capital outflows from emerging markets. Additionally, global geopolitical uncertainty, including tensions in Eastern Europe and trade frictions between the U.S. and China, raised the global risk premium and strengthened the U.S. dollar against the rupiah. On the domestic side, Indonesia’s trade deficit widened to USD 3.2 billion in Q1 2025 due to rising energy import demand amid surging global oil prices. Furthermore, the state budget deficit increased to IDR 104.2 trillion by March 2025 up 20% year on year undermining investor confidence. Using a qualitative descriptive method through content analysis of reports from Bank Indonesia, BPS trade statistics, and relevant media sources, this study finds that the combination of elevated U.S. interest rates, geopolitical tensions, trade imbalances, and fiscal deficits accelerated the depreciation of the rupiah. Policy recommendations include targeted foreign exchange intervention by Bank Indonesia, monetary tightening in line with global trends, fiscal consolidation to reduce the budget deficit, and export diversification to mitigate external shocks.

Silvi Trimanda Yolanda; M. Afdal Samsuddin

Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi 2025 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation in Indonesia during the period 1994–2023 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The data used are monthly time series secondary data obtained from the World Bank. The Johansen cointegration test results indicate a long-term relationship among the three variables. However, the Granger causality test finds no significant short-term causal relationship. The VECM estimation reveals that inflation is the most responsive variable in correcting long-term disequilibrium, while the exchange rate plays a dominant role in influencing both inflation and interest rates. The Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition results indicate that these variables interact dynamically, especially in the medium to long term. These findings highlight the importance of exchange rate stabilization and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy to maintain macroeconomic stability in Indonesia.