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This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation in Indonesia during the period 1994–2023 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The data used are monthly time series secondary data obtained from the World Bank. The Johansen cointegration test results indicate a long-term relationship among the three variables. However, the Granger causality test finds no significant short-term causal relationship. The VECM estimation reveals that inflation is the most responsive variable in correcting long-term disequilibrium, while the exchange rate plays a dominant role in influencing both inflation and interest rates. The Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition results indicate that these variables interact dynamically, especially in the medium to long term. These findings highlight the importance of exchange rate stabilization and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy to maintain macroeconomic stability in Indonesia.

This study aims to analyze the impact of the monetary and fiscal policy mix on Indonesia's economic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic in the period 2013-2023. Using the Simultaneous Regression method (Two-Stage Least Squares/2SLS), this study tests two simultaneous equations, namely the effect of exports, unemployment rate, and inflation on economic growth (GDP), as well as the effect of exchange rates (exchange rates), interest rates, and GDP on inflation. The results of the study indicate that exports and unemployment have a significant negative effect on economic growth, while inflation has a significant positive effect on GDP. Meanwhile, the exchange rate and interest rate have a significant effect on inflation, but GDP does not have a significant effect on inflation. The normality test shows that the data is normally distributed and the autocorrelation test does not detect any autocorrelation, so the model used is valid. The effectiveness of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel on economic growth was found to be positive, although not statistically significant. This finding emphasizes the importance of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, maintaining exchange rate stability, controlling inflation, and efforts to restore the real sector and reduce unemployment to support sustainable economic growth in Indonesia. This study provides recommendations for the government and monetary authorities to strengthen policy synergy in facing economic challenges, especially during times of crisis, to ensure more effective national economic stability and recovery.

Global economic issues have significantly impacted national economic progress in recent decades, especially for developing countries such as Indonesia.  Currency exchange rates are one of the main variables that influence this economic process.  The performance of a country's external sector is largely determined by the exchange rate, which also affects a number of other macroeconomic factors.  The purpose of this study is to see how much Indonesia's economic growth is affected by the exchange rate between 1980 and 2023. Data from government agencies including the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia are used in this quantitative approach using a literature study approach.  The findings show that changes in the value of the rupiah, especially when depreciation occurs, have a significant influence on a number of economic factors, such as imports, exports, inflation, domestic investment, and consumption.  The competitiveness of Indonesian export goods in the global market increases with the depreciation of the exchange rate. At the same time, however, it also leads to higher prices for imported goods, increases the burden of foreign debt, and depresses people's purchasing power and domestic investment activity. The last five years of data reflect the fluctuating pattern of Indonesia's international trade, which is closely related to exchange rate conditions and global economic dynamics. Exchange rate instability creates economic uncertainty, which can hamper long-term growth. Therefore, stabilizing the exchange rate and strengthening the export sector are important strategies, supported by monetary and fiscal policies that are adaptive to global changes.

In today’s global economy, accurately predicting foreign exchange rates or estimating their trends correctly is crucial for informed investment decisions. Despite the success of standalone models like ARIMA and deep learning models like LSTM, challenges persist in capturing both linear and nonlinear dynamics in highly volatile exchange rate environments. Motivated by the limitations of these individual models and the need for more robust forecasting tools, this study proposes a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model that integrates ARIMA’s strength in modeling linear trends with LSTM’s capability to capture nonlinear dependencies, using historical USD/NGN exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) spanning 2001 to 2024. The research hypothesis posits that the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model will significantly outperform standalone models in forecasting accuracy. By comparing these models against state-of-the-art approaches, the study highlights the advantages of hybridizing statistical and deep learning methods. The findings demonstrate that the hybrid model achieved the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2.216 and the highest R² of 0.998, indicating superior forecasting performance. This study fills a critical research gap by demonstrating the effectiveness of hybrid deep learning in financial time series forecasting, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and financial analysts. Future research will extend this work by incorporating the latest dataset and evaluating model robustness during the recent surge in the Naira/Dollar exchange rate from 2023 to 2024.

Pineapple is one of Indonesia's top three fruit commodities in terms of production volume. In 2022, Indonesia became the world's largest pineapple producer. Pineapple production in Indonesia has fluctuated but has generally shown an increasing and stable trend from 2013 to 2023, with expectations of continued growth. This study aims to analyze the influence of production, the wholesale price index, exchange rates, and export prices on Indonesia's pineapple export volume from 2013 to 2023. This research utilizes secondary time-series data on a quarterly basis, analyzed using multiple linear regression and classical assumption tests. The results indicate that production, the wholesale price index, exchange rates, and export prices simultaneously influence Indonesia's pineapple export volume. Partially, production and exchange rates have a positive but statistically insignificant effect on export volume, while the wholesale price index and export prices have a negative yet statistically significant impact. These findings highlight the importance of policies that can reduce production costs to enhance the competitiveness of Indonesian pineapples in the international market. Through synergy between the government, exporters, and farmers, it is expected that Indonesia's pineapple exports will continue to grow sustainably.

This research focuses on exchange rate fluctuations in Indonesia during the period of 2005 to 2023, influenced by various economic factors, primarily monetary policy and international trade dynamics. Exchange rate instability is a major concern because it can impact the national economy, including export competitiveness and macroeconomic stability. Consequently, the purpose of this research is to dissect the relationship between interest rates, export values, and wide money as it pertains to currency swings.  This study takes a quantitative approach by analyzing the relationship between the dependent and independent variables via multiple linear regression.  World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and Statistics Indonesia yearly time series data from 2005 to 2023 is used.  The findings show that broad money, interest rates, and export values significantly impact the swings in the Indonesian currency.  According to the findings of the multiple linear regression analysis, Interest rates and broad money have a positive and statistically significant effect on changes in exchange rates, but export values have a negative and statistically significant effect. The implications of this research emphasize the importance of appropriate interest rate policies and balanced broad money management to maintain exchange rate stability. Future researchers are advised to include global variables and more complex analysis methods.

This study aims to analyze the effect of the inflation rate on the number of Wismanto Indonesia Via Air Gateway. The data used covers the period from January 2017 to September 2024, focusing on the relationship between inflation as a macroeconomic factor and the number of tourists visiting Indonesia. The data analysis used in this study is regression analysis, supported by descriptive analysis of each variable. The regression analysis results show that the inflation rate has a significant positive effect on the number of international tourist arrivals. The regression coefficient of 156,266 indicates that every 1% increase in inflation has the potential to increase the number of international tourists by 156,266 individuals. The significance value of 0.000 indicates that this relationship is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. These findings provide an understanding that although inflation is often associated with rising prices of goods and services, in the context of Indonesian tourism, inflation can be linked to other factors, such as exchange rate fluctuations, which increase Indonesia's appeal as a tourist destination. This study recommends that the government and stakeholders in the tourism sector consider the impact of inflation in tourism development strategies, while maintaining economic stability and international competitiveness. Further studies are recommended to explore other mediating variables, such as exchange rates and tourism promotion policies, in order to understand this relationship more comprehensively.  

Power Index is a strategic indicator measuring a nation's military, economic, and geopolitical capabilities, closely tied to national defense and security. This study examines key factors such as currency exchange rates, GDP, education levels, and technology penetration in shaping the Power Index. Economic stability underpins defense development, while advanced education and digital infrastructure drive innovations in military technology and cybersecurity. Developed countries dominate defense capabilities due to robust technological infrastructures, while developing nations show potential through investments in education and technology. Beta distribution regression, with its suitability for bounded variables, was utilized to model the Power Index. The study provides insights into the interplay between economic, educational, and technological factors, supporting strategic policymaking to strengthen national defense in a dynamic global landscape.

In this research. conducted a study Analysis of Factors Affecting the Performance of Fixed Income Mutual Funds Sharia in Indonesia for the 2019-2023 Period. In this study using Quantitative methods and the data analysis method used is Multiple Linear Regression. Research results The results showed that inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates gave a negative significant value, so it does not contribute well to sharia fixed income mutual funds, while the money supply has a positive effect. while the amount of money in circulation has a positive effect on sharia fixed income mutual funds. The results of the calculation of the coefficient of determination shows that 43.1% of the value of Islamic fixed income mutual funds is influenced by inflation, exchange rates, money supply and interest rates.

Hawalah is a debt transfer method that originates from Islamic traditions and is increasingly relevant in the modern business context, especially in international transactions. The background of this research focuses on the importance of understanding and executing effective hawalah to overcome the challenges faced by business actors, such as multiplying exchange rates and payment risks. The aim of this research is to explore the implementation of hawalah in business and identify the factors that influence its effectiveness. The research method used is a qualitative approach, with data collection through in-depth interviews with business people and document analysis from related literature. The research results show that a deep understanding of the hawalah mechanism is very necessary, and information technology support has been proven to increase transaction efficiency and transparency. However, challenges related to data security and the lack of clear regulations are still obstacles. The discussion underscored the importance of education, collaboration with trusted financial institutions, and building trust between the parties involved in the transaction. Overall, hawalah has great potential to support economic growth, especially for small and medium businesses, with the right strategy and in-depth understanding. It is hoped that this research can contribute to the development of knowledge and business practices in the field of sharia economics.

The money supply can affect other economic variables, such as output and prices, create stability in the economy and help achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy, namely the stability of inflation and exchange rates.  The level of the exchange rate by the monetary authority must be kept stable because an unstable exchange rate, especially one that experiences a sharp depreciation, can have financial crisis implications. This research approach was associative/quantitative research. The data used in this study are secondary data taken and processed from Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) from 2013-2023 (11 years). Based on the results of regression analysis shows that the variable money supply, exchange rates, and interest rates simultaneously affect the inflation variable. Based on the results of regression analysis shows that the variable money supply has a positive and significant effect on inflation. Based on the results of regression analysis, the exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on inflation. Based on the regression analysis, the interest rate variable has no statistical effect on inflation.

This research seeks to illustrate the effects of rate of exchange volatility on Iraq's trade balance .The report examines currency rates in Iraq from 2010 to 2022, including both official and parallel values. The study addresses the trade balance, encompassing exports and imports, and investigates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on trade performance through the ARDL model. It demonstrates a direct relationship between the two variables and confirms the absence of autocorrelation issues. Formulating a series of results and recommendations.

Crude Oil, which has long been a mainstay sector in Indonesia's exports, contributes greatly to state revenue, thus driving the pace of national economic growth. In the context of the Indonesian economy, the crude oil industry plays an indispensable role, especially over the past few decades. This study aims to identify the factors that affect the volume of Indonesia's crude oil exports to nine main destination countries—including Japan, South Korea, China, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, the United States, and Taiwan—in the period from 2003 to 2022. Some of the variables analyzed include exchange rates, foreign investment, production, and world oil prices. Through the regression analysis method of panel data, the results of this study indicate that simultaneously, exchange rates, foreign investment, production, and world oil prices have a significant effect on Indonesia's crude oil exports to these countries. Separately, the world exchange rate and oil price variables had a significant negative influence on Indonesia's crude oil export volume, while the foreign investment and production variables showed a positive and significant influence on export volume during the 2003-2022 research period.

This research is motivated by the need for PT Sumi Indo Kabel Tbk to manage foreign currency transactions in line with the increase in international trade and exchange rate fluctuations. Foreign currency transactions can affect the company's financial statements, especially in the recognition of profit or loss due to changes in exchange rates. The purpose of this study is to analyze the application of foreign currency transaction accounting at PT Sumi Indo Kabel Tbk based on Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (PSAK) 221 on the Effect of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates. The research method used is descriptive quantitative, using secondary data obtained from the company's annual financial statements. The results showed that PT Sumi Indo Kabel Tbk has implemented PSAK 221 properly, recorded foreign currency transactions at the prevailing exchange rate and recognized the exchange difference in the income statement. However, the company still faces the risk of significant exchange rate fluctuations, which requires a more comprehensive risk management strategy. The conclusion of this study is that consistent implementation of PSAK 221 can help companies improve the transparency of financial statements and reduce the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations on financial performance..

Exchange rate is defined as the currency that can be exchanged per unit to another currency, or the price of one currency to another currency. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates and investment on exchange rates in five ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. The variables used in this study are exchange rates, inflation, interest rates and investment as moderating variables. Data sources come from World Development Indicators and Investing.com. The analysis used is multiple linear analysis with the help of SPSS 22 software. The results of this study indicate that inflation and interest rates have no effect on investment. In addition, inflation, interest rates and investment have no effect on exchange rates in five ASEAN countries. Then, the effect of inflation and interest rates on exchange rates through investment also does not have a significant effect.

The money supply can affect other economic variables, such as output and prices, create stability in the economy and help achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy, namely the stability of inflation and exchange rates.  The level of the exchange rate by the monetary authority must be kept stable because an unstable exchange rate, especially one that experiences a sharp depreciation, can have financial crisis implications. This research approach was associative/quantitative research. The data used in this study are secondary data taken and processed from Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) from 2013-2023 (11 years). Based on the results of regression analysis shows that the variable money supply, exchange rates, and interest rates simultaneously affect the inflation variable. Based on the results of regression analysis shows that the variable money supply has a positive and significant effect on inflation. Based on the results of regression analysis, the exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on inflation. Based on the regression analysis, the interest rate variable has no statistical effect on inflation.

Using a quantitative approach, this study investigates the effect of port export and import volumes on economic growth in North Sumatra and West Sumatra Provinces. Time series data from the World Bank and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) from 2006 to 2023 are used as secondary data. The analysis uses the ARDL Panel model, which allows for analysis of data dynamics across time and regions. The results show that the three main indicators that affect economic growth (GRDP) in both provinces, both in the short and long term, are export volume, inflation, and exchange rates. In North Sumatra, export volume has a positive impact on GRDP, while import volume has a negative impact, indicating a risk of dependence on imports. Controlled inflation also has a positive impact, while the exchange rate shows a diversion. Policy recommendations are expected to improve global competitiveness and exchange rate stability through coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, support for the Export Capacity Building Program and MSMEs through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Framework (RCEP), and export diversification to reduce dependence on certain commodities. This study emphasizes that policies that are responsive to changes in trade at the national to international levels are an important foundation for stabilizing sustainable economic growth.

This study aims to determine and analyze stock prices by looking at the direct and indirect effects between inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, ROA and stock prices in Islamic Banks in Indonesia. This study uses panel data regression with variables of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, ROA, and stock prices with data analysis using SPSS 22 software. The period of this study is 2020-2022. The results of this study indicate that inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates are significant to ROA. Inflation and ROA are directly significant to stock prices. Meanwhile, interest rates and exchange rates directly have no effect on stock prices. For the indirect relationship between inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates affect stock prices through ROA.

This research aims to investigate whether the exchange rates and inflation in Iraq have a long-term equilibrium relationship or not. A dataset of exchange rates and inflation from 2000 to 2020 was used. Johansen’s cointegration test was employed to confirm that there is a long-term correlation between these variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was utilized, along with Granger causality tests, to understand the long and short run connections and to determine if the causality flow is bidirectional or unidirectional. The results provided proof of a long-run equilibrium connection among inflation and rates of exchange, with strong evidence of a unidirectional causal flow from rates of exchange to inflation in Iraq.

The phenomenon of poverty often occurs in every country, especially in developing countries. The level of poverty in a country depends on two main factors, namely the average level of national income and the width of the income distribution gap. Poverty cannot only be measured through income national per capita because per capita income calculates the average income of people in a country. The high level of per capita national income in a country, if the distribution of income is unequal then the level of poverty in that country cannot be avoided, and vice versa, no matter how equal the distribution of income in a country is, if the average level of national income is low, then poverty will also become more widespread. This research aims to determine the effect of minimum wages, farmer exchange rates, and inflation in the primary sector, secondary sector and tertiary sector on poverty on the island of Java. This research uses quantitative research methods using secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), using panel data analysis techniques.  In this research, it was found that economic factors such as the Provincial Minimum Wage (UMP), Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP), and the inflation rate had a significant influence on the poverty level on the island of Java in the 2017-2022 period.