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Norhayati Norhayati; Annisa Ariani; Erwan Setyanor

Jurnal Pajak dan Analisis Ekonomi Syariah 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Free trade is one of the central issues in the dynamics of the global economy, sparking debates about the extent to which the state should be involved in economic activities. Each economic system holds a different perspective on the relationship between market mechanisms and state intervention. This article aims to analyze the concept of free trade and the role of the state from the perspective of various economic systems, namely liberal, socialist, mixed, and Islamic economic systems. The research method employed is a literature review, examining relevant sources such as books, scholarly journals, and other academic references. The findings indicate that the liberal economic system tends to emphasize market freedom with minimal state involvement, whereas the socialist system positions the state as the main regulator in trade. The mixed economic system seeks to balance the roles of the market and the state, while Islamic economics permits free trade as long as it is conducted in accordance with the principles of ethics, justice, and social responsibility. This article is expected to contribute academically to a better understanding of the differing approaches of economic systems toward free trade and the role of the state in addressing global economic challenges.

Fakhrurazi Fakhrurazi; Salamah Salamah

Jurnal Miftahul Ilmi: Jurnal Pendidikan Agama Islam 2026 STIKes Ibnu Sina Ajibarang

The development of Islamic Religious Education in Banjar Land represents a long historical process marked by social, political, and religious transformations. Since the era of traditional da‘wah conducted by ulama through halaqah, surau-based instruction, and religious study circles (majelis taklim), the Islamic education system in this region has continuously evolved, eventually giving rise to formal educational institutions such as madrasahs and Islamic-based schools. This study aims to chronologically describe these historical dynamics, examine the factors influencing educational change, and analyze the roles of ulama, the Banjar Sultanate, and community institutions in the transformation of Islamic education. The research employs a qualitative method with a historical approach, involving the stages of heuristics, source criticism, interpretation, and historiography. Data were collected from scholarly literature, local manuscripts, and the works of Banjar ulama. The findings indicate that the transformation of Islamic education in Banjar Land, from the period of Islamization to the emergence of madrasahs and Islamic Religious Education in public schools, occurred through at least three major phases: (1) family- and community-based traditional da‘wah through langgar (prayer houses) and halaqah institutions; (2) the establishment of modern madrasahs in the twentieth century as a response to colonialism and modernity; and (3) the integration of Islamic education into the formal national education system in the post-independence era. This study affirms that Islamic education in Banjar Land possesses distinctive characteristics, is adaptive in nature, and is deeply rooted in local culture.

Azzahra Putri Ariesta; Susi Sarumpaet

International Journal of Economics, Commerce, and Management 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

This study aims to examine the effect of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) costs and financial characteristics on tax avoidance practices among publicly listed companies with the largest market capitalization in Indonesia. The study is motivated by Indonesia’s relatively low tax ratio compared to other emerging economies in the ASEAN region, which suggests the persistence of tax avoidance practices, particularly among large corporations. Grounded in legitimacy theory and agency theory, this research empirically investigates the influence of CSR costs, profitability, leverage, liquidity, activity ratio, growth ratio, and operating cash flow on tax avoidance. The research sample consists of 50 companies with the largest market capitalization listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange over the 2020–2024 period, employing a census sampling method and unbalanced panel data. Secondary data were obtained from annual financial reports and analyzed using panel data regression techniques. Tax avoidance is measured using the Book-Tax Differences (BTD) approach, while model selection is determined through the Chow test, Hausman test, and Lagrange Multiplier test. The results indicate that, simultaneously, all independent variables have a significant effect on tax avoidance. Partially, the activity ratio has a negative effect on tax avoidance, whereas the growth ratio and operating cash flow have a positive effect on tax avoidance. Meanwhile, CSR costs, profitability, leverage, and liquidity do not show a significant effect. These findings suggest that asset utilization efficiency tends to restrain tax avoidance behavior, while corporate growth dynamics and strong operating cash flows encourage more aggressive tax management strategies. This study provides empirical evidence from an emerging market context and offers insights for tax authorities and regulators in designing more effective, risk-based tax supervision policies.

Intan Khoirotul Awaliya; Nori Aggraini

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Pendidikan 2026 Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

This study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis of the psychological journey of the character Rangga Raja in the novel 0 MDPL by Nurwina Sari. The main focus of the study is to identify the inner conflicts experienced by the protagonist as well as the dynamics of the personality structure consisting of the Id, Ego, and Superego that shape his psychological development throughout the storyline. This research employs a literary psychology approach using a qualitative descriptive method, conducted through a literature review and document analysis of the novel text as the primary data source. The findings indicate that Rangga Raja experiences complex emotional conflicts resulting from past trauma, experiences of loss, and failures in romantic relationships. These conditions are reflected through the tensions and interactions between the Id, Ego, and Superego within himself. The process toward the “zero point” (0 MDPL) is interpreted as a symbol of an identity crisis phase as well as a stage of self-reconstruction, in which the protagonist undergoes processes of reflection, self-acceptance, and openness to change. In addition, Rangga’s interactions with other characters, such as Andini, La Nina, and Nadia G. Sahara, play an important role in his psychological recovery and healing process. This study confirms that the novel 0 MDPL represents a profound reflection on human psychological dynamics, the search for identity, and the gradual process of inner healing.

Fikrul Hakim

International Journal of Management 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen Kewirausahaan dan Bisnis Indonesia

Rapid technological change in the digital era has reshaped the nature of organizational innovation, requiring firms not only to innovate but also to align their innovation activities with technological developments and market dynamics, a capability referred to as Techno-Resonance Innovation Capability (TRIC). Although Knowledge Management (KM) has been widely recognized as a driver of innovation, studies that explicitly link KM to the development of techno-resonant innovation remain limited. This study aims to address this gap by systematically reviewing the literature to examine how KM contributes to innovation capability and how this relationship evolves toward TRIC through absorptive capacity. Using the systematic literature review methodology proposed by Tranfield et al., this study follows three stages planning, conducting, and reporting the review to identify, evaluate, and synthesize relevant studies on KM, absorptive capacity, innovation capability, and techno-resonance. The findings indicate that innovation capability emerges from interconnected KM processes, including knowledge acquisition, sharing, storage, and application, which form the organizational infrastructure for innovation. Absorptive capacity is identified as a key bridging mechanism that enables organizations to transform managed knowledge into innovative outcomes by enhancing their ability to acquire, assimilate, transform, and exploit technological knowledge. This study concludes that integrating KM and TRIC through absorptive capacity extends conventional innovation capability models and provides a stronger theoretical explanation of innovation in technology-driven and digitally dynamic environments.

Ikhfa Amelia Tantiyuana; Afiffatur Rohimah; Abu Amar Bustomi

Jurnal Penelitian Komunikasi dan Sosialisasi 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Sosial Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the role of public relations as a key pillar in building reputation and enhancing the credibility of nature-based tourism in Jombang. The research focuses on the communication strategies employed by public relations officers in delivering information, managing public interactions, and utilizing digital media as the primary tool for strengthening destination image. The research method used is a case study with a descriptive qualitative approach. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with six informants, including public relations staff, tourism managers, representatives from the tourism department, local community members, and visitors.The findings show that public relations plays a vital role in reputation building through four main dimensions: message consistency, communication transparency, collaboration with communities and stakeholders, and the optimization of digital media. Field findings reveal that consistent use of social media strengthens tourists’ trust, while local community involvement adds authenticity to the destination’s image. Moreover, public relations also functions as a crisis communication manager by providing fast and accurate information during operational disruptions. In conclusion, the reputation of nature tourism in Jombang is not solely determined by natural beauty but also by the quality of communication managed by public relations. The optimization of digital and collaborative communication has become a key strategy to maintain the credibility and attractiveness of the destination amid increasingly competitive tourism dynamics.

Mangihut Siregar; Novita Dwi Indriani

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Sosial, Politik dan Humaniora 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

The culture of patronage is a key characteristic of Indonesian political dynamics, having developed from the pre-colonial era to the contemporary democratic era. Despite decentralization and political reforms in Indonesia, patronage practices persist through relationships between political elites, bureaucracy, business actors, and communities, particularly at the local level. This study analyzes patronage using Pierre Bourdieu's Social Practice Theory framework, which emphasizes the interaction between habitus, capital, and the arena as factors shaping social practices. The method used is descriptive qualitative research with data collection techniques through desk studies, which allows researchers to examine various academic literature to build a comprehensive conceptual analysis. The research findings indicate that internalized political habitus, the accumulation of economic, social, cultural, and symbolic capital, and a competitive local political field are key elements in perpetuating patronage. Patronage is not merely a transactional political practice, but a social structure that is continuously reproduced and impacts the politicization of bureaucracy, the strengthening of oligarchy, power inequality, and the vulnerability of the poor to political manipulation. This research confirms that efforts to strengthen democracy in Indonesia require transformation of the political habitus of society, bureaucratic reform, and restrictions on the dominance of economic actors in the political arena to break the entrenched patron-client chain.

Raden Satrio Wibowo; Siti Marwiyah; Wahyu Prawesthi

International Journal of Social Welfare and Family Law 2026 Asosiasi Penelitian dan Pengajar Ilmu Sosial Indonesia

This research examines law enforcement against immigration violations and the factors influencing the effectiveness of border crossing inspection at the Immigration Checkpoint (TPI) of Tanjung Perak, Surabaya. Immigration inspection plays a vital role in safeguarding national sovereignty and monitoring cross-border human movement. Using a normative juridical approach with statutory and conceptual approaches, the findings demonstrate that enforcement procedures include document verification, identification of violations, administrative actions, and deportation in accordance with Law Number 6 of 2011 concerning Immigration. Common violations found include misuse of stay permits, travel document forgery, unauthorized border crossers, and illegal activities by foreign nationals beyond visa provisions. However, implementation still faces challenges such as limited human resources, inadequate infrastructure, and weak inter-agency coordination. Several factors affect the effectiveness of inspections, including personnel quality, technological support, legal frameworks, infrastructure capacity, traveler volume, inter-agency cooperation, political and international relations factors, socio-cultural dynamics, financial and logistical support, as well as internal supervision and accountability systems. The research concludes that institutional capacity building, policy integration, regulatory harmonization, and strengthened internal supervision are essential to ensure optimal immigration control at TPI Tanjung Perak in facing global challenges.

Atasa Tarisah; Kuswandi Kuswandi

Jurnal Hukum, Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora 2026 Asosiasi Peneliti dan Pengajar Ilmu Hukum Indonesia

Domestic violence (DV) is a hidden crime phenomenon with complex criminology, deeply rooted in the interaction between economic pressures and unequal social norms. Financial instability, such as unemployment and poverty, creates profound psychological stress on individuals, especially for perpetrators who fail to fulfill their breadwinner role, which is then expressed through aggressive behavior. Economic crises even causally increase stress, leading to physical or psychological violence. The dominant profile of perpetrators is men with low emotional control who are financially stressed and adhere to patriarchal ideology, while the majority of victims are women (housewives) who are vulnerable due to economic dependence and lack of access to resources, reinforcing the dynamics of economic violence as a systematic means of control. Optimizing response requires an integrated approach: strengthening law enforcement through sensitivity to non-physical violence and guaranteeing the protection of victims' assets, empowering victims economically through training and access to capital to foster independence, and transforming social norms through gender equality campaigns and deconstructing patriarchal culture that considers domestic violence a private matter.

Irsyad Aldi Setyoaji; Nafik Salafiyah

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Seni, Desain dan Media 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This research aims to analyze the adaptive role of a dance teacher in teaching the subject of music art at SMK Asta Mitra Purwodadi, as well as identifying the patterns of collaborative approaches and the implementation of the Deep Learning strategy in the learning process. This phenomenon attracts researchers due to the case of a teacher teaching cross-disciplinary subjects, although still within the domain of the arts. This study employs a qualitative method using observation, semi-structured interviews, and documentation techniques. The main subject of this research is Bu Evi, a dance teacher who also serves as the music art instructor. The research results indicate that the non-specialist teacher (with a dance background) successfully overcomes limitations in teaching music by performing a role transformation into a facilitator focusing on expression, rhythm, and performance. The implementation of Deep Learning is realized effectively through a kinesthetic approach, where abstract music concepts (such as tempo and dynamics) are translated through body movement exploration, which is proven to increase student enthusiasm and understanding. Furthermore, the teacher implements a strategic collaborative pattern with the music extracurricular teacher, where responsibilities are divided between aspects of expression/movement and the deepening of theory/vocal technique, ensuring talented students still receive adequate technical development. Assessment focuses on performative aspects (expression, tempo, teamwork, and self-confidence). This research concludes that the teacher's professionalism and pedagogical creativity are the main keys to bridging competency gaps, while simultaneously ensuring the achievement of the goals of the Merdeka Curriculum in shaping student character and 21st-century skills.

Dian Ayu Puspita Sari Nst; Nurmala Siregar; Nursyamsiah Simbolon; Masganti Sit

Akhlak : Jurnal Pendidikan Agama Islam dan Filsafat 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Agama dan Filsafat Indonesia

The development of the modern world, characterized by advances in digital technology, globalization, and complex social dynamics, has created new challenges in child-rearing practices, particularly for Muslim families. Children require not only the fulfillment of physical needs and formal education, but also balanced emotional, social, and spiritual support. This study aims to examine the concept of child-rearing based on love and compassion from the perspective of Islamic psychology, identify the core principles of Islamic parenting, and explain its implications for children’s psychological development. This research employed a qualitative approach using a literature review method with a systematic literature review design. Data sources were obtained from academic books as well as nationally accredited journals and reputable international journals published between 2020 and 2024. The data were analyzed using content analysis and thematic analysis to identify patterns, key concepts, and relationships among variables. The findings indicate that parenting grounded in love and compassion (rahmah), combined with role modeling, justice, and wisdom in discipline, contributes positively to children’s emotional, social, moral, and spiritual development. Warm and responsive Islamic parenting supports the development of effective emotional regulation, prosocial behavior, and the internalization of faith-based and moral values in children. The results also demonstrate a strong alignment between Islamic parenting concepts and the compassionate parenting approach in modern psychology, with Islamic psychology offering a distinctive strength in its spiritual dimension. This study contributes to the reinforcement of the theoretical framework of Islamic psychology and provides practical recommendations for parents and educators in implementing balanced parenting that integrates compassion, discipline, and Islamic values in the modern era.

Eka Wahyudinarti; Putri Andini Rachmatika; Agung Brastama Putra

Mars: Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro Dan Ilmu Komputer 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Manajemen dan Bisnis Indonesia

The rapid development of the sea transportation industry produces a massive and complex volume of transaction data, requiring strategic management to support managerial decision-making. This research aims to implement the Executive Information System on SeaPass in order to evaluate the performance of ship ticket sales. The research method uses data visualization with a two-level drill-down mechanism, which allows the presentation of information hierarchically from general summaries to specific details. The methodological stages include needs analysis, user interface (UI) design using Figma, front-end implementation with HTML, CSS, and JavaScript, database integration, and system testing through Black Box Testing. The results showed that the SIE implementation successfully integrated operational data, including schedules, ships, and manifests, into an interactive dashboard. The two-level drill-down feature provides the ability for executives to identify operational anomalies and market fluctuations in real-time. In conclusion, the system significantly enhances executive data analysis capabilities, transforming complex transaction data into accurate strategic information, thereby supporting more precise business decision-making and adaptive to the dynamics of the marine transportation market.

Agustina Bura; Mirayanti Sarungngu; Rini Ta'diampang; Alvina Ratte; Jupril Jupril +1 more

Sukacita : Jurnal Pendidikan Iman Kristen 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Agama dan Filsafat Indonesia

Christian transformational leadership offers an ideal model for church organizational development, but its implementation in the Indonesian context faces complex structural and cultural barriers. This study aims to identify and analyze the structural and cultural barriers that influence the implementation of Christian transformational leadership in Indonesian church organizations, analyze the mechanisms of organizational resistance and their implications for leadership effectiveness, and formulate adaptive strategies relevant to local dynamics. The method used is a qualitative literature study with a systematic literature review approach of the latest academic sources. The results show that structural barriers include limited human resource capacity, weak organizational infrastructure, and immature management systems, while cultural barriers are rooted in strong local traditions and resistance to new leadership models. Organizational resistance arises through mutually reinforcing interpersonal, organizational, and cultural mechanisms, resulting in decreased congregation participation and empowerment effectiveness. Effective adaptive strategies include participatory dialogue communication, continuous leadership development, acculturation of leadership to local values, and the formation of an inclusive organizational culture. This study concludes that the sustainable implementation of Christian transformational leadership requires a holistic approach that integrates changes in structure, culture, and interpersonal relationships while remaining sensitive to the local context and cultural wisdom.

Rafi Adrian Syahputra; Vivi Widiyaningsih; Zihad Ahmad Alfarraby; Asep Suryana; Rusfadia Saktiyanti Jahja

RISOMA : Jurnal Riset Sosial Humaniora dan Pendidikan 2026 Asosiasi Ilmuwan Pendidikan, Sosial, dan Humaniora Indonesia

The phenomenon of the economic spending patterns of FISH students at Jakarta State University living in the Daksinapati, Pemuda, and Rawamangun Muka areas reflects the socio-economic dynamics of out-of-town students adjusting to independent living in a big city. This study employed a qualitative descriptive approach through in-depth interviews with five informants living in three different boarding houses. The analysis was conducted using Mark Granovetter's (1985) Embeddedness theory, which emphasizes that individual economic actions are always embedded within social networks, norms, and interpersonal relationships that shape their consumption decisions. The results show that student spending is influenced not only by primary needs such as rent, food, and transportation, but also by social relationships within the boarding house and campus, which give rise to latent expenditures such as hanging out, pooling activities, organizational solidarity, and peer lifestyle demands. Thus, the consumption patterns of out-of-town students are not merely individual economic activities but also social mechanisms reflecting the process of adaptation, solidarity, and efforts to maintain integration within the social environment they inhabit.

Elsa Tampubolon; Kezia simatupang

jurnal Riset Rumpun Agama dan Filsafat 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

The era of globalization presents serious challenges for Christian Religious Education (PAK) through the currents of value relativism, consumerism, and digital influences that threaten the formation of the spiritual character of the younger generation. This study aims to analyze strategies for integrating spiritual values ​​into Christian Religious Education (PAK) to ensure its relevance and effectiveness in facing the dynamics of the times, with a focus on a holistic approach that combines a contextual curriculum, hybrid learning media, faith-based digital literacy, and strengthening teacher competencies. The research method uses a qualitative descriptive approach based on library research through thematic content analysis of books, scientific journals, and related literature. The results indicate that effective integration of spiritual values ​​through strategies such as interactive digital learning, school-church-family collaboration, and systematic evaluation produces students who are strong in faith, critical of global influences, and ethical in character. In conclusion, the need for ongoing synergy to shape a generation of Christians who are adaptive and imbued with integrity in the era of globalization is emphasized.

Budi Arif Suyanto; Annafi, Muhammad Hafiyyan

RISOMA : Jurnal Riset Sosial Humaniora dan Pendidikan 2026 Asosiasi Ilmuwan Pendidikan, Sosial, dan Humaniora Indonesia

The phenomenon of masculine men has become a new strategy in the modern beauty product marketing industry. Changing social and cultural values about gender identity have led to the emergence of male images with soft, stylish, and aesthetic characteristics in various promotional campaigns. This study aims to analyze how the phenomenon of masculine men is used as a marketing communication strategy, as well as its impact on consumer perception. The method used is a literature study with a descriptive qualitative approach, which examines contemporary communication theory, gender theory, and modern marketing concepts. The findings suggest that the use of masculine male figures in beauty product advertising can expand market segmentation, attract cross-gender audiences, and create an inclusive brand image that aligns with current social trends. However, this strategy also raises debates about the limitations of masculinity and the social construction of beauty. Therefore, the phenomenon of masculine men can be understood as a form of adaptation of marketing communication to changes in cultural and gender values in contemporary society In addition, the findings of this study are expected to make a theoretical contribution to the study of marketing communication and gender studies, as well as become a practical reference for beauty industry players in designing promotional strategies that are sensitive to social dynamics, cultural values, and the increasingly diverse preferences of modern consumers.

Jeremy Timothy

jurnal Riset Rumpun Agama dan Filsafat 2026 Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study reexamines Genesis 26:12–13 to illuminate the hermeneutical tension between the original meaning of the Hebrew term זָרַע (zāraʿ) and the interpretive patterns characteristic of the Prosperity Gospel. Through a historical-critical approach combined with narrative analysis, the study demonstrates that Isaac’s act of sowing must be understood as an actual agrarian activity undertaken within conditions of crisis and limitation, and grounded in the initiative and faithfulness of God. The findings indicate that the blessing Isaac received was never intended as a universal, reproducible formula but as a theological declaration of divine care within a history marked by uncertainty. In contrast, the Prosperity Gospel employs a hermeneutic that is predominantly literal and selective in its use of texts while disregarding their contexts, thereby reshaping the covenant narrative into a reductive pattern of guaranteed prosperity. This analysis shows that such reading not only shifts the theological focus of the text but also obscures the dynamics of faith, obedience, and grace that form the heart of the narrative. The study affirms the necessity of a more critical and responsible hermeneutic and argues that recovering the historical context and narrative structure serves as an essential theological corrective to Prosperity Gospel readings that detach the text from its original context.

Himmah Amaliyaturrahmah

Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Bahasa 2026 Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

This study aims to examine pragmatic aspects, particularly speech acts and implicatures, in the lyrics of the song “Sedia Aku Sebelum Hujan” by Idgitaf. By applying a qualitative descriptive method through pragmatic content analysis techniques, this study examines locutionary, illocutionary, and perlocutionary speech acts based on Austin's theory, as well as conversational implicatures based on Grice's framework. The results show that the song lyrics are dominated by expressive and commissive illocutionary acts that serve to express sacrifice, vulnerability, and unconditional commitment. Locutionary acts play a role in constructing a literal narrative about protection and relationship inequality, while perlocutionary acts are aimed at evoking feelings of security and gratitude in the listener. Furthermore, the study of implicature reveals deeper implied meanings related to self-sacrifice, acceptance of inequality in relationships, and anticipatory commitment, which are often conveyed through the metaphors of “rain” and “war”. This study concludes that the power of lyrics lies not only in explicit romantic expressions, but also in the strategic use of language to perform actions and convey implicit values of devotion, reflecting the complex dynamics of human relationships, even when they are unbalanced. These findings emphasize the importance of pragmatic analysis in fully understanding the communicative and artistic impact of song lyrics.

Jonathan Immanuel Panjaitan; Jonathan Edward Siahaan; Frans Max Valentino Sianturi

Deposisi: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmu Hukum 2026 International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

This journal analyzes sexual violence by educators against students by analyzing Supreme Court Decision No. 5642 K/Pid.Sus/2022 using normative legal research methods. The primary focus of this research is the abuse of power relations by perpetrators holding positions of authority, as well as the legal protections afforded to child victims. Furthermore, this paper compares the provisions on sexual violence in the Child Protection Law and the Sexual Violence Criminal Law (UU TPKS). The findings indicate that courts impose harsher sentences on perpetrators who abuse their trust as educators and place victims at the center of the legal process, ensuring guarantees of recovery, psychological rehabilitation, restitution, and the right to education. The judges' approach in the ruling also reflects the spirit and principles of victim protection as outlined in the TPKS Law, including recognition of power dynamics, psychological pressure, and the importance of a victim-centered perspective. The TPKS Law expands the scope of sexual violence beyond physical aspects to include psychological and structural dimensions, which were previously not clearly regulated in other laws.  Therefore, this paper emphasizes the importance of harmonizing the two laws to create a more just, progressive, and victim-centered legal system, especially for children in educational settings. This research is expected to contribute to strengthening a more comprehensive and child-oriented legal approach.

Nurul Fazirah; Erizky Elsa Wisnuna; Muslihah Muslihah; Achmad Zakaria; Achmad Budi Susetyo

Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi 2026 Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

The relatively high volatility of Robusta coffee prices creates uncertainty for farmers, business actors, and policymakers in making economic decisions. This study aims to analyze the price movement patterns of Robusta coffee, determine the most appropriate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and conduct short- to medium-term price forecasting for Robusta coffee. The data used consist of monthly Robusta coffee price data from January 2023 to September 2025, sourced from the World Bank Commodity Price Data. The analytical method employed is ARIMA using EViews software, beginning with stationarity testing using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, model identification through ACF and PACF, parameter estimation, and residual diagnostic testing. The results show that Robusta coffee price data are non-stationary at the level but become stationary at the first difference, indicating integration of order one I(1). Based on model identification and diagnostic testing, the ARIMA (0,1,0) model is found to be the most appropriate and satisfies the white noise assumption. Forecasting results indicate that Robusta coffee prices are projected to remain relatively stable with a moderate upward trend through December 2026. These findings are expected to serve as a reference for decision-making by farmers, business actors, and the government in responding to Robusta coffee price dynamics.