SciRepID - Prediksi Jumlah Angka Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Deli Serdang Tahun 2024


Prediksi Jumlah Angka Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Deli Serdang Tahun 2024

Aljabar : Jurnal Ilmuan Pendidikan, Matematika dan Kebumian
Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia (ARIMSI)

📄 Abstract

Poverty is one of the main problems that hinder regional development. Deli Serdang Regency shows a fluctuating trend in the number of poor people from year to year. To support government policies in overcoming poverty, an accurate forecasting method is needed to predict the number of poor people in the future. This study uses the Single Moving Average (SMA) method with two period variations, namely n = 2 and n = 3, based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Deli Serdang Regency for 2017–2023. The forecasting results show that the SMA method with n = 3 provides better accuracy than n = 2, as indicated by the Mean Squared Error (MSE) value of 21.38, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 4.44, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 3.52%. These findings indicate that the SMA method is capable of providing fairly accurate predictions and can be used as a basis for regional development policy planning to reduce poverty in Deli Serdang Regency in 2024.

🔖 Keywords

#Poverty; Prediction; Single Moving Average; Forecasting; Deli Serdang

ℹ️ Informasi Publikasi

Tanggal Publikasi
09 July 2025
Volume / Nomor / Tahun
Volume 1, Nomor 3, Tahun 2025

📝 HOW TO CITE

Octa Yulanda Putri; Mufarrida Dalillah; Laila Agustin Pohan; Almirah Olivia Siregar, "Prediksi Jumlah Angka Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Deli Serdang Tahun 2024," Aljabar : Jurnal Ilmuan Pendidikan, Matematika dan Kebumian, vol. 1, no. 3, Jul. 2025.

ACM
ACS
APA
ABNT
Chicago
Harvard
IEEE
MLA
Turabian
Vancouver

🔗 Artikel Terkait dari Jurnal yang Sama

📊 Statistik Sitasi Jurnal

Tren Sitasi per Tahun