Machine Learning-Based Spatiotemporal Modeling for Detecting Disease Hotspots in Primary Care Data

Diseases in primary health services exhibit complex spatial-temporal dynamics due to urbanization and population mobility. Conventional surveillance approaches are difficult to capture these patterns adaptively. Machine learning (ML) based on spatio-temporal modeling offers a solution with the ability to detect disease clusters automatically and with high precision. Research Objectives: This research aims to develop a machine learning model to detect disease hotspots from primary service data in Indonesia, with a focus on improving prediction accuracy, interpretability, and relevance of health policies. Methodology: The primary service dataset for 2024 (5,343 entries) was analyzed using three ML models Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Temporal Random Forest (TRF), and Multi-EigenSpot with spatial (village) and temporal (week, month) features. Performance evaluation includes predictive (AUC, F1-score) and spatial (Moran's I, Spatio-Temporal Correlation Index) metrics. Results: The results showed that Multi-EigenSpot achieved the best performance (AUC=0.91; F1=0.86), with the detection of dominant hotspots in Sungai Asam and Beringin Villages. Moran's I value of 0.63 indicates a strong spatial autocorrelation, while STCI=0.57 indicates moderate temporal stability. Conclusions: ML-based spatio-temporal models are effective in identifying hidden disease patterns and have the potential to be integrated into national digital surveillance systems. This approach supports precision public health by providing a scientific basis for real-time location- and time-based intervention policies.