Analisis Perencanaan Peramalan Dan Safety Stock Sprite 250ML Dengan Metode Time Series Di PT. XYZ

Sprite drink is a soda drink that is very popular among all groups. Demand is uncertain and always changes from time to time, making product availability difficult to control and often causes overstock or stockout problems. Therefore, inventory control is needed, which can be done by forecasting, determining safety stock and good re-order points. To obtain effective and efficient planning, the number of orders must be based on the number of past mass requests so as to reduce the occurrence of overstock or stockouts. With the problems experienced by PT. XYZ, the forecasting method used is the time series forecasting method. In this case, the time series methods used are Simple Average, Single Moving Average and also Single Exponential Smoothing. After carrying out several calculations, we obtained a Mean Absolute Centage Error (MAPE) value of 49.379%, a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 2297.145, a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2912.495 and also a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 8,482 .628 and forecasting results of 4504 pcs every month. Based on the calculation results, the proposal given is to reorder Sprite 250ML when the inventory in the warehouse reaches 1548 pcs with a safety stock of 540 pcs.