Advanced Machine Learning for Comprehensive Mapping and Risk Analysis of Dengue Fever in Purwokerto to Support Public Health Preparedness

Dengue Fever (DF) continues to be a major public health threat in Indonesia, especially in urban areas with high population density, such as Purwokerto City. This study aims to develop a predictive model to identify high-risk areas for DF outbreaks by integrating Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The research utilizes historical dengue case data, meteorological parameters (rainfall, temperature, humidity), and population density as predictive variables. Three ML classification algorithms—Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM)—were implemented to develop risk prediction models. Extensive data preprocessing, feature selection, and spatial integration were applied to ensure model robustness. The results show that the SVM model outperformed other methods, achieving the highest accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score in classifying dengue risk zones. Risk maps generated through GIS visualization successfully identify priority areas for targeted interventions. The novelty of this research lies in the combination of local epidemiological data, multi-algorithm comparison, and geospatial mapping to improve early warning systems for DF in Purwokerto. This integrated approach is expected to support more effective prevention strategies and enhance public health preparedness.